Cancel automation if there is a rule four R4

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Thump
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Joined: Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:00 pm

Is there an easy way to cancel planned automation bets if a rule 4 is triggered? Like as a condition? I'm trying to develop an automated inplay lay strategy but im pretty sure Rule 4 is killing me as strat is related to sp. thanks
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jamesedwards
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Thump wrote:
Thu Sep 25, 2025 5:17 pm
Is there an easy way to cancel planned automation bets if a rule 4 is triggered? Like as a condition? I'm trying to develop an automated inplay lay strategy but im pretty sure Rule 4 is killing me as strat is related to sp. thanks
I assume you're talking about late withdrawals that remain in the market and are retrospectively removed after the race?

The only way I can think of is to use TPD which requires a subscription. TPD remove the runner from the race when they detect it is no longer running leaving it with no position value. This includes non-starters, fallers and unseats, but you could probably build something that looks for any horses with no position in the first 10 secs of a race.
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Thump
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Yes sir those late withdrawals. Thanks for the advice, can you please clarify if this makes sense before i really look into those options ...

so if my strategy is usually laying successfully at a certain price related to SP(in play) ... the snag I think I'm hitting is that said late withdrawals R4 races, seem to affect the odds in someway and the strat typically end up laying the 2 favourites or similar when it would usually not be the case( more like a mid and outsider). and I end up losing. Basically a disproportiante amount of my lay losses were R4 situations. Does that even make sense?

Edit. Just realised, does RF in the settled bet list stand for Reduction Factor instead of Rule Four ...?
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jamesedwards
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Thump wrote:
Thu Sep 25, 2025 6:10 pm
Yes sir those late withdrawals. Thanks for the advice, can you please clarify if this makes sense before i really look into those options ...

so if my strategy is usually laying successfully at a certain price related to SP(in play) ... the snag I think I'm hitting is that said late withdrawals R4 races, seem to affect the odds in someway and the strat typically end up laying the 2 favourites or similar when it would usually not be the case( more like a mid and outsider). and I end up losing. Basically a disproportiante amount of my lay losses were R4 situations. Does that even make sense?
Betfair charge reduction factor on all bets matched before the off, but not after. So if there's a competitive horse withdrawn late but not removed from the market then prices on other horses will hold up until the off (including SP) and will then immediately crash the moment the race goes into play. I can see how this could play havoc with certain types of SP-related automation.

Whether TPD would be able to block your automated lays based on missing horses depends on how far into the race your lays are triggered. The subscriptions costs might be a little hefty too, depending on how much this issue affects your profits. https://www.tpd.zone/subscribe/
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jamesedwards
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I've set up a test within my own TPD automation to see if I can get it to consistently picks up late withdrawals. Will report back.
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Thump
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Joined: Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:00 pm

Thank you for confirming that I really appreciate your input, I thought I was losing the plot with that one.

It looks like a tough one to solve for me. I might just have to actively look out for it manually. I do the lays at mix time durations based on a little algorithm and I would be very concerned that with a TPD sub that I personally still wouldn't be able to configure it to do this task, I'm not very technical. also i would need the proffessional 200 bucks a month

Sincerely thanks again though sir great knowledge and expertise
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Thump
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jamesedwards wrote:
Thu Sep 25, 2025 6:39 pm
I've set up a test within my own TPD automation to see if I can get it to consistently picks up late withdrawals. Will report back.
Wow thank you so much man
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jamesedwards
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Thump wrote:
Thu Sep 25, 2025 6:53 pm
jamesedwards wrote:
Thu Sep 25, 2025 6:39 pm
I've set up a test within my own TPD automation to see if I can get it to consistently picks up late withdrawals. Will report back.
Wow thank you so much man
It works fine. Picked up the late withdrawal in Newmarket 17:55.

27/09/2025 16:50:35: Connecting Newmarket 27th Sep - 17:55 7f Hcap to the Total Performance Data service.
27/09/2025 17:56:37: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
27/09/2025 17:56:39: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
27/09/2025 17:56:39: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
27/09/2025 17:56:49: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value (Shared) for market: late withdrawal alert trigger = 1
27/09/2025 17:58:02: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended

It's just two lines of automation, but does need the TPD sub. It will pick up any in-play UK race where there is a selection without a position between secs 5 and 10. This will catch most late withdrawals, but might also trigger in races where a horse unseats at the start.

Late withdrawal.baf
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