What, if anything, tempts you into reckless behaviour?

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 7284
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

eevee wrote:
Wed Oct 08, 2025 5:51 pm
My guess is FOMO and other biases are more the domain of -EV plays and anger/frustration accounting for almost all reckless moves.
You don't have to guess either...

Biggest issue with trading is that negative emotions feel 4-5 times stronger than positive ones

Thx to evolution the memory is skewed toward pain.. so even if markets are neutral and dont give a toss about our feelings we experience them through a deeply asymmetric emotional lens.. you already know this to be true, even when you've had a ton of extremely positive experiences in your life your mind will still randomly go to the few most negative ones and try to replay them in your mind when you're lying awake etc

Not going to go deep into it but in short this basically means :
- Psychologically ideal strike rate = 70–80%
- Financially ideal strike rate = whatever yields positive expectancy
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5495
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Interesting to see a thread revived 7 years on. Shows it's still relevant to many traders today
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 26585
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

I recently had a bad crash on my mountain bike and ended up in A&E. My wife thinks I'm reckless. To an extent, bombing down a hill at 20-30 mph is begging for trouble.

But, I do this 200 times a year, and it's been five years since my last big crash. So those are decent odds.

She asks me to go slower or take it easier, so each crash isn't so bad. But ultimately, that's part of the thrill of doing it, knowing you are on the edge of that.

The main problem from this most recent crash is a broken finger. So that's going to be annoying for trading et al for at least a couple of months.
User avatar
jamesedwards
Posts: 4559
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Euler wrote:
Thu Oct 09, 2025 3:53 pm
I recently had a bad crash on my mountain bike and ended up in A&E. My wife thinks I'm reckless. To an extent, bombing down a hill at 20-30 mph is begging for trouble.

But, I do this 200 times a year, and it's been five years since my last bit crash. So those are decent odds.

She asks me to go slower or take it easier, so each crash isn't so bad. But ultimately, that's part of the thrill of doing it, knowing you are on the edge of that.

The main problem from this most recent crash is a broken finger. So that's going to be annoying for trading et al for at least a couple of months.
I've thought about insuring my fingers. It would be a trading disaster to lose an important one!
User avatar
eevee
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2025 1:11 pm

Kai wrote:
Thu Oct 09, 2025 12:23 pm
Welcome, and no worries, this topic is truly timeless... we all tilted at one point and learned from it, I was being particularly idiotic and had to change the whole approach
I appreciate the welcome Kai. I always enjoy your deeper take on things and all good points there.
Kai wrote:
Thu Oct 09, 2025 12:26 pm
Hell, even the risk isn't real... unlike with investing, where risk comes from genuine unknowns

Everything on the Exchange is only simulated risk, so there is nothing to actually fear

Meaning losses SHOULDN'T be catastrophic either, just part of the learning curve
The hole in my wallet was quite real I assure you, but I get your meaning :)
Euler wrote:
Thu Oct 09, 2025 3:53 pm
I recently had a bad crash on my mountain bike and ended up in A&E. My wife thinks I'm reckless. To an extent, bombing down a hill at 20-30 mph is begging for trouble.

But, I do this 200 times a year, and it's been five years since my last big crash. So those are decent odds.

She asks me to go slower or take it easier, so each crash isn't so bad. But ultimately, that's part of the thrill of doing it, knowing you are on the edge of that.

The main problem from this most recent crash is a broken finger. So that's going to be annoying for trading et al for at least a couple of months.
My brother does a similar thing and when I watch him bombing down the street I can't help thinking that his opinions on the matter might flip if he were ever to pay some heavy price. I could be wrong of course - that's often a bummer between family and friends isn't it, the way we all interpret risk differently. Especially for sports bettors!
jamesedwards wrote:
Thu Oct 09, 2025 4:04 pm
I've thought about insuring my fingers. It would be a trading disaster to lose an important one!
Apparently AR glasses are the next big thing!

And by the by, it's very cool to be in the same room as all you guys. Hope to join you as a winner someday not too far from now haha
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Psychology”