Market

[Tuco]

...just wondered if anyone knows why the Market Overview screen info is not always correct in the 'High' & 'Low' price columns?

Corina Machado was matched down to 1.33 for the Nobel Peace Prize this morning having been added to the market overnight - she had a 'High' of 10.0 and a 'Low' of 1.33 but the market Overview at suspension suggests 2.02 for both 'High' and 'Low' even though it also says LTP 1.5.

[Dallas]

The Market Overview's high & low values have a spike filter to eliminate prices that only traded at small volume (relative to price)
These same values are also what you'd see when using an Excel worksheet etc

[Tuco]

...thanks for that Dallas.

£100 (£50 back + £50 lay) was matched at 1.33, which represents 26.7% of her total volume of £374, and which feels more than a spike given there was money matched all the way down from 2.02 to 1.33.

I can understand the pence matched at 10.0 being filtered out (even though this was the first price matched on Corina Machado), but I can't really understand why the £100 at 1.33 was filtered out.

[Dallas]

Its the amount relative to the price, not total matched

The bets you mentioned only had a liability and payout of £16.50, which would be no where near enough to satisfy the filter at odds of 1.33

[Tuco]

Fair enough, thank you Dallas that explains it. So 10p matched at 500 might be shown in the 'High' column, but not £100 matched at 1.33. I would have hoped that £100 at 1.33 would be shown in the 'Low' column but you've explained why given it's only a £16.50 liability for the layer, however it's a £100 liability for the backer.

Personally I would rather the 'High' and 'Low' Market Overview columns simply did just that - show the 'High' and 'Low' prices matched without any spike filter.

[ShaunWhite]

£100 matched at 1.33..... a £16.50 liability for the layer, however it's a £100 liability for the backer.

Backer stake 50....wins 16.50 or loses 50
Layer stake 50.... wins 50 or loses 16.50

They both stake 50 so 100 matched.

[Tuco]

...yes, my mistake Shaun - maximum liability for the backer was £50 and for the layer was £16.50.

Personally I still think the 'High' and 'Low' columns should show the high and low prices matched, whatever the stake/liability.

[Tuco]

...whilst talking about the Nobel Peace Prize market, does anyone think it's rather suspicious that last night, overnight just a few hours before the Nobel Peace Prize winner announcement, Corina Machado was added to the Betfair Exchange market - no-one else, just Corina Machado!

This market has been active for several weeks, but the winner was added overnight a few hours before the official announcement!

#lol
#suspicious

[Tuco]

Peace Prize Leak.jpg

[Euler]

...whilst talking about the Nobel Peace Prize market, does anyone think it's rather suspicious that last night, overnight just a few hours before the Nobel Peace Prize winner announcement, Corina Machado was added to the Betfair Exchange market - no-one else, just Corina Machado!

This market has been active for several weeks, but the winner was added overnight a few hours before the official announcement!

#lol
#suspicious

Didn't realise that they had to add it back in.

Polymarket 'knew' the winner about 11 hours before it was declared. So I guess that is why they rushed to put it in the market. They have done this before on other markets where the winners wasn't present.

[Tuco]

...the 'Nobel Peace Prize Winner' market had been on Betfair for several weeks with 31 selections.

I went to bed at about 0100am on Friday morning at which time there were still the same 31 selections.

When I got up at 0800am (Maria) Corina Machado had been added overnight to the Betfair market making 32 selections...she was soon backed down to 1.33 and then at 1000am she was announced as the sole winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025!

There were 3 winners on each of Monday [Physiology/Medicine], Tuesday [Physics] and Wednesday [Chemistry], but 1 winner on Thursday [Literature] and Friday [Peace]

So not only did the insiders know that (Maria) Corina Machado was the winner, they also knew she was the sole winner.