Please tell me there's a moment it just clicks into place!
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Will Sharpe
- Posts: 68
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 9:02 am
Give yourself a break. Don't even look at a computer for a couple of days. It will be so much easier to refocus after that.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Taking brakes is really important. I won't be trading the CL tonight, simply because I'm tired from yesterday and waking up so early today. As tomorrow is going to be a 12 hours trading day, I need to be fresh. I'm taking my wife dancing 
There seemed to be one guy in particular who was bombarding the market with 30k+ 2-3 times per race. Thankfully I found quite easy to read after a bit.Ferru123 wrote:I think the markets have been quite choppy today, so that may be part of the reason. How has everyone else found it?
I used practice mode for the first 2 weeks I started trading (it was one of the main selling points to me for going with BA) and my results were consistently good so moved up to real money. I think the only real pressure I feel is actually pressure on myself to succeed and certainly not any money pressures. I play poker and I've got a few k on Betfair as it stands so losing a few quid a day is the equivalent of a big blind at my usual stakesFerru123 wrote: Why not use practice mode for a while, so there's less pressure?
I'm sure everyone has incredible frustration during the early stages of trading when you just can't work out what you're doing wrong. I guess this is kind of the point where people quit.
Hi I'm a new Bet Angel user (7 days) and I am using the enhanced ladder to watch as many races trade out as I can. A few small trades to get a feel as well. With so many races the learning from observing the ebbs and flows is powerful. Like any new skill time, effort and determination will lead to understanding. You clearly have these. Dont give up.
Thought I'd put in a quick update (for my own sanity as much as anything else). I'm still grinding away trying to improve but I'm having so many highs and lows that it's difficult to tell where I'm at in terms of progress. I've been able to talk over some concepts with a couple of people which has helped a lot (thanks a lot for the help, you know who you are ). It seems I develop bad habits, conquer them, then move onto another bad habit which is frustrating. I'm not going to give in though.
What I would say from my short time trading is that moving up in stakes brings a new set of challenges. I started off in practice mode, and since then have been able to move up in stakes twice to using money that actually begins to effect the market. It was like I'd become comfortable at the smallest stakes, felt confident of moving up, only for certain factors to change ever so slightly at the higher stake level (getting matched fully for example). Since moving up in stakes I've had a pretty rough time and kind of feel back at square one again so I need to try and regain my confidence. I've recorded some of my losing trades so I'll watch them back and see where I'm going wrong.
Clearly I'm in no position to advise newbie traders but what I would say is try not to stagnate at a stake level for too long as you may find when you try to move up, your trading strategy has been slightly altered. I'd also suggest just keeping it simple. I'm guilty of trying to over analyse everything but I don't have the ability to process all of the information at this time.
). It seems I develop bad habits, conquer them, then move onto another bad habit which is frustrating. I'm not going to give in though.What I would say from my short time trading is that moving up in stakes brings a new set of challenges. I started off in practice mode, and since then have been able to move up in stakes twice to using money that actually begins to effect the market. It was like I'd become comfortable at the smallest stakes, felt confident of moving up, only for certain factors to change ever so slightly at the higher stake level (getting matched fully for example). Since moving up in stakes I've had a pretty rough time and kind of feel back at square one again so I need to try and regain my confidence. I've recorded some of my losing trades so I'll watch them back and see where I'm going wrong.
Clearly I'm in no position to advise newbie traders but what I would say is try not to stagnate at a stake level for too long as you may find when you try to move up, your trading strategy has been slightly altered. I'd also suggest just keeping it simple. I'm guilty of trying to over analyse everything but I don't have the ability to process all of the information at this time.
At the beginning when I use to try something and if it didn't work I quickly forget about and other times when certain thing work I used think to myself that I've found the holy grail, achieve nirvana or realise that I've cracked the code like Neo in the Matrix (see below):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYwdzYC3uUc
Then after attempting to replicate previosly successful attempt I find that it quite doesn't work in the manners that I thought I did.
There is no silver bullet but there as Gary Player or Arnold Palmer had said:
It's a funny thing, the more I practice the luckier I get.
- Arnold Palmer
Just keep doing things, and repeat successful things more often and less successful less so and you'll ge to a stage where you start taking 3 steps forward and 1 step back rather than the other way around.
But above else stop things about getting rich but think in probababilities and how you can turn the percentages in your favour slowly but surely.
Sorry but I've got post this link again to make sure you guys watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYwdzYC3uUc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYwdzYC3uUc
Then after attempting to replicate previosly successful attempt I find that it quite doesn't work in the manners that I thought I did.
There is no silver bullet but there as Gary Player or Arnold Palmer had said:
It's a funny thing, the more I practice the luckier I get.
- Arnold Palmer
Just keep doing things, and repeat successful things more often and less successful less so and you'll ge to a stage where you start taking 3 steps forward and 1 step back rather than the other way around.
But above else stop things about getting rich but think in probababilities and how you can turn the percentages in your favour slowly but surely.
Sorry but I've got post this link again to make sure you guys watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYwdzYC3uUc
Sigh this is just impossible, so much effort for zero reward, just crazy. I don't know what else I can do, absolutely working my arse off at this and going backwards. Just utterly dejected, has to be about the only thing in life I've put 100% in and seen no real progress.
Here's my advice.
Take a step back, and try not to think about Betfair for a few days. Then ask yourself what you know about the markets, and how you can exploit that knowledge.
Then test out your theories using practice mode or two pound stakes.
Less is sometimes more. I'm sure most people on this forum have got so caught up thinking about a particular aspect of their trading that they end up not seeing the wood for the trees...
Jeff
Take a step back, and try not to think about Betfair for a few days. Then ask yourself what you know about the markets, and how you can exploit that knowledge.
Then test out your theories using practice mode or two pound stakes.
Less is sometimes more.
I'm sure most people on this forum have got so caught up thinking about a particular aspect of their trading that they end up not seeing the wood for the trees...Jeff
Consty1 wrote:Sigh this is just impossible, so much effort for zero reward, just crazy. I don't know what else I can do, absolutely working my arse off at this and going backwards. Just utterly dejected, has to be about the only thing in life I've put 100% in and seen no real progress.
The markets are all over the place due to the bomber and other people following on from him. Just sit back and watch and try to get used to the stormy market conditions. Its not always like this and you dont have to trade everything if you dont know what to do in all circumstances. Yesterday was more 'normal' - if you did OK then but badly today then its just the strange markets
I know exactly how you feel, I wasn't making any money at all after over a year of trying, trading is the world's hardest job methinks. You are up against rocket scientists I'm afraid, and they aren't mucking around.Consty1 wrote:Sigh this is just impossible, so much effort for zero reward, just crazy. I don't know what else I can do, absolutely working my arse off at this and going backwards. Just utterly dejected, has to be about the only thing in life I've put 100% in and seen no real progress.
Here are some of the main elements you need to get right to win:
*Method of selecting races and horses that gives you an edge (could be: chart, price movements, statistics, knowledge of horses's form, etc.)
*Correct margins, offset targets and stop-losses
*Correct entry conditions (knowing when to enter market, what time and under what conditions you will place bets).
*Perfect discipline, ability to stick to plan
*Correct staking and bank management
*Back-up plans and disaster recovery
I once heard that financial market traders are in the top 10% of the population intelligence-wise.
Many have had very successful careers outside of trading.
Yet most lose money consistently, even though they'd more or less break even by trading at random.
That tells me that you have a lot of very smart people making very stupid decisions. Their intelligence may even be working against them, if it causes them to over-complicate simple matters, or to find elaborate excuses not to close a losing trade.
IMHO, trading is simple. Note I said 'simple', not 'easy'. If working out how to find an edge feels like trying to solve Fermat's Theorm blindfolded, you're probably over-complicating matters (which is easily done!). Take a break, and you may see things differently with fresh eyes...
Jeff
Many have had very successful careers outside of trading.
Yet most lose money consistently, even though they'd more or less break even by trading at random.
That tells me that you have a lot of very smart people making very stupid decisions. Their intelligence may even be working against them, if it causes them to over-complicate simple matters, or to find elaborate excuses not to close a losing trade.
IMHO, trading is simple. Note I said 'simple', not 'easy'. If working out how to find an edge feels like trying to solve Fermat's Theorm blindfolded, you're probably over-complicating matters (which is easily done!). Take a break, and you may see things differently with fresh eyes...
Jeff
Zenyatta wrote: You are up against rocket scientists I'm afraid, and they aren't mucking around.
My biggest problem is getting matched. I'm usually fairly accurate with my prediction of where the market might go to but once the price gets there it appears I'm always at the back of the queue. I'm making plenty of entry points but not many are getting matched.
I'd identified this a couple of weeks back so I recorded some of the markets to watch back and see if I could speed up my thought process for entry points. I'm clearly not seeing the market movement quick enough though.
Worryingly I'm still viewing the markets as random. Yes I see correlations between the top 3 in terms of price movement and there's certain times before the off I see more prominent movement than usual. I also see a hell of a lot of McDonalds logo shape graphs that move within a large amount of prices that seem completely random to me. This is without the bomber throwing in his 30k bets as well.
Basically several market variables I've learnt that in theory are price movement indicators, in reality seem very inaccurate.
I'd identified this a couple of weeks back so I recorded some of the markets to watch back and see if I could speed up my thought process for entry points. I'm clearly not seeing the market movement quick enough though.
Worryingly I'm still viewing the markets as random. Yes I see correlations between the top 3 in terms of price movement and there's certain times before the off I see more prominent movement than usual. I also see a hell of a lot of McDonalds logo shape graphs that move within a large amount of prices that seem completely random to me. This is without the bomber throwing in his 30k bets as well.
Basically several market variables I've learnt that in theory are price movement indicators, in reality seem very inaccurate.
Why not upload the videos to YouTube and put a link in the forum?Consty1 wrote: I'd identified this a couple of weeks back so I recorded some of the markets to watch back and see if I could speed up my thought process for entry points.
BTW, you do realise you don't need to predict anything in order to make a profit?
Just as an experiment, try offering small amounts of money at random to the market, using the principle of cutting your losses and letting your profits run. Or have a play with this spreadsheet, which opens and closes trades at random, and see under what situations it makes and loses money: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=2085
To a very large extent, they are... To use an extreme example, nobody can tell when the Mad Bomber is about to strike.Consty1 wrote:Worryingly I'm still viewing the markets as random.
Jeff
Nobody said it was easy, or a fairly quick learning process.
I'm a self-employed trader, but after 12 months of having opened my BF account, my P+L showed -£12500
I made many mistakes learning, it does make sense after a while, but you need to remove negative thoughts and just concentrate on the markets. The money will come once you've mastered this.
A big turning point for me was to stop trading horses. I think horse prices are a great deal of smoke and mirrors. However, sports betting is much more consistent and easier to read. I'd always been a football and tennis anorak, so I devoted myself to these two sports. I have confidence that my knowledge of these sports, formguides and historical analysis enables me to be involved at the front of price movements.
That's one big advice I'd give you - what's your favourite sport? Try just trading that for a while, you might find that you predict price movements quicker. Once you do, your confidence will rise and this is crucial. A trader with no confidence is like a lone seal swimming in shark infested waters
I'm a self-employed trader, but after 12 months of having opened my BF account, my P+L showed -£12500
I made many mistakes learning, it does make sense after a while, but you need to remove negative thoughts and just concentrate on the markets. The money will come once you've mastered this.
A big turning point for me was to stop trading horses. I think horse prices are a great deal of smoke and mirrors. However, sports betting is much more consistent and easier to read. I'd always been a football and tennis anorak, so I devoted myself to these two sports. I have confidence that my knowledge of these sports, formguides and historical analysis enables me to be involved at the front of price movements.
That's one big advice I'd give you - what's your favourite sport? Try just trading that for a while, you might find that you predict price movements quicker. Once you do, your confidence will rise and this is crucial. A trader with no confidence is like a lone seal swimming in shark infested waters