AI bubble

[weemac]

I read that only 5% of GPT users pay/are willing to pay for it.

https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/15/ ... r_few_pay/

If true, where is the revenue expected to come from?

What a co-incidence! Less than 24 hours after posting that, they offer me for the first time a 30 day 'free trial' of the paid version.

That seals it. Bubble.

[Big Bad Barney]

I read that only 5% of GPT users pay/are willing to pay for it.

https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/15/ ... r_few_pay/

If true, where is the revenue expected to come from?

What a co-incidence! Less than 24 hours after posting that, they offer me for the first time a 30 day 'free trial' of the paid version.

That seals it. Bubble.

5% of GPT users is a huge amount!!! How many quarter billion of people is that... if you asked them the same thing about google you'd prob get about .05%...grudgingly accepting, yer...'ll pay for google....fk....why do I have to pay for things that multiply my time...wwaaaah....

Like obviously that's not a great way to measure if it's a bubble or what not but........ the upside is huge...

[Big Bad Barney]

degen momentum + index & chill

Sounds wise...How does one track that?

[wearthefoxhat]

It's all about getting value where/when ever possible,

A.I. (GPT) is no exception. I'm still using the free version and have exponentially improved my excel skills, and soon, will tackle coding, in some form, with all the other free to use LLM's out there.

The bubble is real for sure, but as long as there are uses for helping others, it will grow further, we've only scratched the surface.

However, the Nvidia story is a crazy one. The way business is done with leveraging the value of a company to borrow money, then leverage to borrow more money, is where the bubble really is. The bell weather of a bubble burst, will be in the Nvidia share price, wherever that goes, so will the global markets.

[Fugazi]

Speaking of boom/bust

ChatGPT is toast.

They got there first and have let it slip through their hands.

[ruthlessimon]

degen momentum + index & chill

Sounds wise...How does one track that?

Each month, look at all the current s&p 500 stocks, measure by 11-month return, rank them from best to worst, and buy the top few (e.g. top 3 if you want to go full-degen). Rotate monthly on the 1st. Only pick stocks that have been in the index for a few years to avoid unstable newcomers.

...that last bit being a decision I made to avoid Palantir... Goes to show, omission is risk people miss. Everyone wants to avoid a 50% loss, but miss a 100% gain and they don't really seem to care - yet both are the same.

If said strategy starts underperforming I'd probably just convert whatever funds are left into gold/btc/growth ETF. Never value though Value is a cult of underperformance in a central bank dominated world.

So far so good though, catching Nvida square in the face in 2023 means I can afford a "crash" or two. Risk tolerance to me is how much I devote to momemtum. In early 2025 it was 100% but becuase of Tariff man, I cut it to 50/50 with the broad index. Just in case

[Big Bad Barney]

avoid Palantir... Goes to show, omission is risk people miss. Everyone wants to avoid a 50% loss, but miss a 100% gain and they don't really seem to care - yet both are the same.

Thanks! (I'm just a noob watcher in my spare time)...I see the people in the pltr subreddit are like every bitcoin subreddit on the face of the planet... i.e. 'to the moon but dunno why' ... I certainly have trouble figuring out what it is that they do....

[ruthlessimon]

avoid Palantir... Goes to show, omission is risk people miss. Everyone wants to avoid a 50% loss, but miss a 100% gain and they don't really seem to care - yet both are the same.

Thanks! (I'm just a noob watcher in my spare time)...I see the people in the pltr subreddit are like every bitcoin subreddit on the face of the planet... i.e. 'to the moon but dunno why' ... I certainly have trouble figuring out what it is that they do....

Fair play to em - they took a punt, and it paid. People hate the idea of the stock market being a casino, but with QE, that’s exactly what it is.

But all these “Tech Billionaires Know the AI Bubble Will Burst (They’re Already Building Bunkers)” videos are pure dross. The midground - “AI will be volatile for a few years, but it’s ultimately a net positive” - gets 0 views.

If people are gonna preach doom, they need to show their allocations & strategy moving forward. Bet most of these "finfluencers" haven’t tweaked anything - they’re just playing to the gallery.

[Big Bad Barney]

they took a punt, and it paid. People hate the idea of the stock market being a casino, but with QE, that’s exactly what it is.

That's pretty much it, life itself is just one giant casino ..... one has to wonder if value investing doesn't really apply that much in these areas, how far off the rails things can go though...

The thing that bothers me about a lot of posts I read in those subreddits (gold, pltr, btc) is that every 2nd post is just blind optimism. No research, no nothin'...just yeah that shits going up, cause that's just magically what it does.... (at least that's what it seams like to me)

I'm from a software dev background, and geez...AI makes me maybe 25%-50% faster at my job in it's current state....one might argue that software devs aren't very productive (cause they're all retarded haha), but geez...that's a lot of wage savings worldwide if the project manager doesn't blow it....that's just one sector... (the net effect will be more output, rather than less money spent)

The other reality is that there are fairly hard social impacts of AI...those are all gonna be policy driven....no chance in hell being able to pick the outcome of that is...

[ForFolksSake]

they took a punt, and it paid. People hate the idea of the stock market being a casino, but with QE, that’s exactly what it is.

That's pretty much it, life itself is just one giant casino ..... one has to wonder if value investing doesn't really apply that much in these areas, how far off the rails things can go though...

The thing that bothers me about a lot of posts I read in those subreddits (gold, pltr, btc) is that every 2nd post is just blind optimism. No research, no nothin'...just yeah that shits going up, cause that's just magically what it does.... (at least that's what it seams like to me)

I'm from a software dev background, and geez...AI makes me maybe 25%-50% faster at my job in it's current state....one might argue that software devs aren't very productive (cause they're all retarded haha), but geez...that's a lot of wage savings worldwide if the project manager doesn't blow it....that's just one sector... (the net effect will be more output, rather than less money spent)

The other reality is that there are fairly hard social impacts of AI...those are all gonna be policy driven....no chance in hell being able to pick the outcome of that is...

The other reality is that there are fairly hard social impacts of AI...

Bill Gates Predicts AI Will Replace Jobs and Lead to a Two-Day Workweek.... next 10 to 15 years

Transition could further widen the gap between tech-savvy professionals and those in sectors more vulnerable to automation, such as retail, logistics, and manufacturing.

Will have a big impact on software devs jobs and make it harder for junior devs to get started