Complete Beginner to trading

[Jimmy12]

Hi everyone,

I’ve been value betting on horses, greyhounds and golf for years and made a decent profit out of it but bookies restrictions have meant it’s getting harder to get on these days I can still get on in shops but that’s not always possible with work.

I’ve always been interested in trading and with me already having good discipline and bank management from value betting I thought it would be a smooth transition but I was wrong trading seems a bit of a minefield, I’ve been searching things up on the internet for strategies and things like lay the draw, back over 1.5 goals and lay BTTS have come up with the idea being you green up after a goal is scored in each of these. These strategies seem a bit flawed to me because surely the price you are backing/laying would need be value in the first place for you to make a profit? I Like the idea of trading horses before the off but again you would need to know the true odds of the horse before you enter the trade otherwise you are just guessing which way the price will go (example if I look at the exchange 10 minutes before the off and see a horse priced at 10 that I think should be around 6 back it then lay off when the market catches up) it’s very hard to spot opportunities like this on the exchange because markets are so efficient, compared with bookmakers where you can spot value at 11am and place a bit. Most of the horse trading videos I’ve watched they either don’t really tell you anything or they just seem to be trading randomness. Maybe I need to approach this differently to value betting but surely everything has to start with getting value in the first place?

Sorry for the long post I hope this makes sense, any help from anyone about where to start would be really appreciated

Thanks

[jamesedwards]

I’ve been searching things up on the internet for strategies and things like lay the draw, back over 1.5 goals and lay BTTS have come up with the idea being you green up after a goal is scored in each of these. These strategies seem a bit flawed to me because surely the price you are backing/laying would need be value in the first place for you to make a profit?

The fact that you worked this out for yourself puts you streets ahead of most beginners.

I Like the idea of trading horses before the off but again you would need to know the true odds of the horse before you enter the trade otherwise you are just guessing which way the price will go (example if I look at the exchange 10 minutes before the off and see a horse priced at 10 that I think should be around 6 back it then lay off when the market catches up) it’s very hard to spot opportunities like this on the exchange because markets are so efficient, compared with bookmakers where you can spot value at 11am and place a bit. Most of the horse trading videos I’ve watched they either don’t really tell you anything or they just seem to be trading randomness. Maybe I need to approach this differently to value betting but surely everything has to start with getting value in the first place?

You need to find an edge. A reason to expect a positive expected value (+EV) return in the long term. Not only that, but the +EV needs to be big enough to cover any spread and commission. Examples of an edge could include; inside info, faster info, better pictures, market reading skills, superior tools/software.

Pre-off horse racing is very difficult because there will always be people with better and faster information than you, and the use of complex tools is already common place.

I focus on in-play horse racing. I pay thousands of pounds per month for TPD GPS data, drone pictures with faster and better angles, and a relatively complex set-up of tools and software. This puts me roughly in-line with the market, then my knowledge of tracks, jockeys, stewards etc + race reading skills built up over 7 years gives me the edge I need to make a reasonable consistent profit after costs. It's not easy.

[Jimmy12]

Thanks for your reply, yeah none of it seems easy at all. I’ll keep looking see if I can spot any edges in the markets, at the moment I’m only running bet angel on practice mode until I get a feel for it

[ShaunWhite]

Thanks for your reply, yeah none of it seems easy at all. I’ll keep looking see if I can spot any edges in the markets, at the moment I’m only running bet angel on practice mode until I get a feel for it

It's all about value, and trading manually that's usually the direction/size of the move vs how often that move occurs. If you understand straight value betting (where that end price is 1.01 or 1000 rather than +/- a few ticks) then you'll soon cut through the fluff and understand the mechanics of how you make money. The rest is practice practice practice, as cheaply as possible.

[Jimmy12]

Thanks Shaun