Long term profitability for a successful manual trader now that AI is here

[Ryan7724]

Hello

As a trader who has put in the years of hard work learning to trade.
Im wondering for how many more years will it be possible to take profit from the pre-off Uk & IL horse racing markets with the effect of AI on many aspects of our lives.
My question is
Will AI make us manual and semi automated profits shrink over time or will I be able to keep going by changing with the markets as has worked for me in the past?

All replies will be welcomed!
Thank you

[tryingtotrade]

For me got progressively harder already the last few years but not sure its do with AI

[Ryan7724]

In what way has it gotten harder? I mostly swing trade and find no real change as of yet. But can't help but wonder if AI will change that. Automation is only an aid for me nothing more. I don't collect much data just read the market adapt and act.

[Euler]

Hello

As a trader who has put in the years of hard work learning to trade.
Im wondering for how many more years will it be possible to take profit from the pre-off Uk & IL horse racing markets with the effect of AI on many aspects of our lives.
My question is
Will AI make us manual and semi automated profits shrink over time or will I be able to keep going by changing with the markets as has worked for me in the past?

All replies will be welcomed!
Thank you

The world is getting stupider by the day, TBH.

There will likely be two types of people with AI. Those who subserviently use it and those who leverage it. Make sure you are in the former!

Markets always mature and edges get thinner, so you should never stop testing, refining, and looking for new opportunities. If you do, you will find them.

I've had a renaissance this year and currently feel like the only limitation is liquidity. My opportunities rise and fall with it.

[sniffer66]

Hello

As a trader who has put in the years of hard work learning to trade.
Im wondering for how many more years will it be possible to take profit from the pre-off Uk & IL horse racing markets with the effect of AI on many aspects of our lives.
My question is
Will AI make us manual and semi automated profits shrink over time or will I be able to keep going by changing with the markets as has worked for me in the past?

All replies will be welcomed!
Thank you

The world is getting stupider by the day, TBH.

There will likely be two types of people with AI. Those who subserviently use it and those who leverage it. Make sure you are in the former!

Markets always mature and edges get thinner, so you should never stop testing, refining, and looking for new opportunities. If you do, you will find them.

I've had a renaissance this year and currently feel like the only limitation is liquidity. My opportunities rise and fall with it.

Did you mean "latter" Peter, or are you just trying to throw people off ?

[Ryan7724]

Yes, Im fairy sure he meant latter.

My experience is the longer I stay trading the greater my knowledge and profits grow and that makes sense.
As with automation AI is there to be used in addition to skills already gained. I can imagine AI will play a role in early prediction of trend reversals exe.. but underling market dynamics will stay the same. I wonder how regulation or lack of will play a role.

Would like to hear others opinions that have a deeper knowledge?

[jamesedwards]

For me got progressively harder already the last few years but not sure its do with AI

I've been trading full-time on in-play horse racing since 2018. Markets are definitely getting tougher and individual activity streams are declining. Despite this I'm having my best ever year because over time I've managed to add new profit streams into my activity to plug the gaps.

You need to constantly evolve in this game.

[ShaunWhite]

AI on its own isn't much use, but it can help people get into ML which can be. ML has been used for years but it's become so much more accesible now; providing you've got the data to feed it.

But with AI and ML the preconception is that everyone will end up with equally effective models and kill the market but if you get into it you see that's statistically impossible. It only takes small changes to training parameters and you get a very different model. And with 20+ parameters, attention heads, learning rates, dropout rates, neural layers etc, the permutations are limitless. It's definately not the case of just giving it data and asking for it to find you an edge.... And will you use it on fundamental data looking for pure EV, or for predicting moves and seeking structural EV? So many options, early, pre, in-play, which sport etc etc.

There's also several types of ML, I've been developing a system using something called TFT for the last 5 months, although a lot of that has been learning new tech, it's still been 00s of hours work and being frank it's not, yet, the golden goose I hoped for.....and that's with 40yrs in software dev, 7 years of api tick data and 10+yrs full-time trading to lean on. But that said it's been refreshing to stop trying to think of new ideas and get back to focusing on execution, while the ML runs yet another 2 or 3 day long training session in persuit of another tenth of a %..

[Euler]

Did you mean "latter" Peter, or are you just trying to throw people off ?

It's almost like AI wrote that post

Yes, latter. Then again...

[ruthlessimon]

Don’t be afraid to think broadly.

The people most at risk are those who dogmatically believe a single source of income/one employer will always be enough.

The goal should be to reach a point where, if betting exchanges were banned tomorrow, it would be an annoyance rather than an existential crisis.

Most professional traders aren’t (and shouldn’t be) solely reliant on trading income if they’ve got their ducks in a row.

I imagine Peter has huge savings, a large stock portfolio, big commodity holdings, the BA business itself, a YouTube channel, rentals, and his trading — that’s at least 6 largely uncorrelated income streams.

If Betfair got banned or skynet took over, he'd just be bored as opposed to skint.

[ShaunWhite]

Most professional traders aren’t (and shouldn’t be) solely reliant on trading income if they’ve got their ducks in a row.

Depends on the person, when I need a plan B I'll think of one. Same for most self employed people probably.

[ruthlessimon]

when I need a plan B I'll think of one.

Don't settle for mediocrity bro - leverage your edge into an empire, starting tomorrow Get those fingers in every pie. Treat Betfair as a subsidiary of the conglomerate of ShaunWhite Enterprises.

[ShaunWhite]

Don't settle for mediocrity bro - leverage your edge into an empire, starting tomorrow Get those fingers in every pie. Treat Betfair as a subsidiary of the conglomerate of ShaunWhite Enterprises.

Narr, I value free time more than money, always have. Ambition is overrated.