Straight Value bets - Pre play markets in main leagues around the world

[Nickse34]

Hi,

I have spent the last few months really looking into pre play value in the FH and 1.5 goal markets. What I’ve found is that there isn’t much left for someone like me to take. I’ve been betting those markets for 2 years but the more I learn the harder it seems to get. I’ve got a few niche systems that yield between 2 and 4% ROI but I can't stake big on them and the volume of bets is limited.

I do not have data no else has and no insider info. My models are decent but I cant beat the market or even use it to anticipate an early mis pricing. I don’t even think modelling pre play markets is smart, syndicates , sharps and bots are just in a league on their own it seems. It’s really tight and sharp. As I said I did find a bit of dumb money here and there but I don’t think I can make sustainable income from it. Can’t even get matched most of the time, or not at a value price!

Any wisdom from anyone here on whether I still need to dig deeper or just look at inplay or even pre off racing!

Disheartening business that! I remember when I first started and some online guru told me that pre play football betting would be a passive income requiring minimal efforts. Make money while you sleep…

[jamesedwards]

Hi,

I have spent the last few months really looking into pre play value in the FH and 1.5 goal markets. What I’ve found is that there isn’t much left for someone like me to take. I’ve betting betting those markets for 2 years but the more I learn the harder it seems to get.

I do not have data no else has and no insider info. My models are decent but I cant beat the market or even use it to anticipate an early mis pricing. I don’t even think modelling pre play market is smart, syndicates , sharps and bots are just in a league on their own it seems. It’s really tight and sharp. I did find a bit of dumb money here and there but I don’t think I can make sustainable income from it. Can’t even get matched most of the time, or not at a value price!

Any wisdom from anyone here on whether I still need to dig deeper or just look at inplay or even pre off racing!

Disheartening business that!

The markets are sharp. 25 years of fat has been trimmed leaving only the very leanest of cuts remaining.

Horse racing is my game and I've never been able to make football work. But if I was going to put some real effort behind it then I would pick an obscure league somewhere and pile all my effort into becoming an expert on that.

[Nickse34]

Hi,

I have spent the last few months really looking into pre play value in the FH and 1.5 goal markets. What I’ve found is that there isn’t much left for someone like me to take. I’ve betting betting those markets for 2 years but the more I learn the harder it seems to get.

I do not have data no else has and no insider info. My models are decent but I cant beat the market or even use it to anticipate an early mis pricing. I don’t even think modelling pre play market is smart, syndicates , sharps and bots are just in a league on their own it seems. It’s really tight and sharp. I did find a bit of dumb money here and there but I don’t think I can make sustainable income from it. Can’t even get matched most of the time, or not at a value price!

Any wisdom from anyone here on whether I still need to dig deeper or just look at inplay or even pre off racing!

Disheartening business that!

The markets are sharp. 25 years of fat has been trimmed leaving only the very leanest of cuts remaining.

Horse racing is my game and I've never been able to make football work. But if I was going to put some real effort behind it then I would pick an obscure league somewhere and pile all my effort into becoming an expert on that.

Yes, I did look at more obscure leagues and markets but the lack of liquidity makes things hard. Money comes in at the last second before KO and will make the price move quite dramatically and unpredictably. Also quite hard to rely on CLV as a good indicator. I don't know...

[ShaunWhite]

Hi,
My models are decent but I cant beat the market

Hi,
Rhetorical questions really but I'd say consider...

What modelling software are you using and would changing help.
Are you happy with the number of data features you're passing with each team/game or could you suppliment that.
Have you got enough (and relevent) data history.
Have you exhausted your model training hyperparameters, small tweaks can help a lot.
Is it a static pricing model or do you also feed it live market info.