Straight Value bets - Pre play markets in main leagues around the world

[Nickse34]

Excellent thread this to demonstrate the amount of industry needed to eke out a small +EV.

One to bookmark to show those who can't understand why their random 'back-over-1.5-goals-and-trade-out-at-half-time-if-no-goals' is unlikely to bring long term profit.

Yes, not as easy as it may seem, quite a bit of work and brain power needed to scrap a few quid... Market mechanics are well engineered, little randomness if any, especially pre play. A game of skills..

[MrJoeBlack]

MATCH PREVIEW — Fulham vs Manchester City
________________________________________
Fulham —Identity Analysis
Strengths
(High control & possession capability at home)
Fulham at Craven Cottage have shown unusually strong dominance for a mid-table side.
(Above-average transitions)
They can move from regain → attack fairly efficiently.
(Moderate defensive activity)
Good enough to disrupt lower-quality midfields.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Weak final-third & shot creation identity)
A big issue vs an elite defensive structure.
(Slightly below average in set-piece phases)
(Neutral buildup stability)
Against City’s press, “average” may not be enough.
________________________________________
Manchester City — Away Identity Analysis
Strengths
(Elite control)
Top-tier possession control even away from home.
(Strong buildup stability)
Very resistant to pressure → play through opponents.
(Good in structured/set-piece phases)
Useful in tight games away.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Slightly below average disruption)
City do not rely on duels; they press via structure.
This drops vs athletic midfields.
(Mildly weak final-third finishing identity)
Chance creation is still strong, but conversion is less dynamic away.
________________________________________
Tactical Matchup: Phase-by-Phase Analysis
1. Possession Phase
• City dominate both possession and stability
• Fulham have above-average control at home, but not enough to compete with City
➡ Advantage: Manchester City (clear)
________________________________________
2. Defensive Disruption
• Fulham have slight defensive bite
• City’s away ball-winning is mediocre
This matters mainly in midfield transitions.
➡ Slight Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
3. Transitional Identity
• Fulham stronger
• City fine but less potent
Fulham can break lines, but they will not get many opportunities due to City’s control.
➡ Small Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
4. Final-Third Threat
• Fulham significantly negative
• City mildly weak
But:
• Fulham create very little vs compact blocks
• City’s possession gives them many more entries into the box
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
5. Set Pieces / Structured Phases
• City mildly positive
• Fulham mild negative
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
OVERALL: Manchester City
Why?
• Fulham’s biggest weakness (final third & set pieces) collides directly with City’s biggest strengths (control & stability)
• City’s control negates Fulham’s decent transitional threat
• Fulham cannot generate consistent danger vs top-6 defences
• Even City’s "weaknesses" are not weak relative to Fulham
Expected Match Flow:
• City dominate territory + ball
• Fulham get occasional transition chances
• City create more sustained xG, especially from zone 14 + set pieces
• Likely a City-tilted match unless Fulham score first
________________________________________
Manchester City should control the match comfortably, limit Fulham’s attacking output, and generate enough sustained pressure to be favourites.

[jamesedwards]

MATCH PREVIEW — Fulham vs Manchester City
________________________________________
Fulham —Identity Analysis
Strengths
(High control & possession capability at home)
Fulham at Craven Cottage have shown unusually strong dominance for a mid-table side.
(Above-average transitions)
They can move from regain → attack fairly efficiently.
(Moderate defensive activity)
Good enough to disrupt lower-quality midfields.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Weak final-third & shot creation identity)
A big issue vs an elite defensive structure.
(Slightly below average in set-piece phases)
(Neutral buildup stability)
Against City’s press, “average” may not be enough.
________________________________________
Manchester City — Away Identity Analysis
Strengths
(Elite control)
Top-tier possession control even away from home.
(Strong buildup stability)
Very resistant to pressure → play through opponents.
(Good in structured/set-piece phases)
Useful in tight games away.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Slightly below average disruption)
City do not rely on duels; they press via structure.
This drops vs athletic midfields.
(Mildly weak final-third finishing identity)
Chance creation is still strong, but conversion is less dynamic away.
________________________________________
Tactical Matchup: Phase-by-Phase Analysis
1. Possession Phase
• City dominate both possession and stability
• Fulham have above-average control at home, but not enough to compete with City
➡ Advantage: Manchester City (clear)
________________________________________
2. Defensive Disruption
• Fulham have slight defensive bite
• City’s away ball-winning is mediocre
This matters mainly in midfield transitions.
➡ Slight Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
3. Transitional Identity
• Fulham stronger
• City fine but less potent
Fulham can break lines, but they will not get many opportunities due to City’s control.
➡ Small Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
4. Final-Third Threat
• Fulham significantly negative
• City mildly weak
But:
• Fulham create very little vs compact blocks
• City’s possession gives them many more entries into the box
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
5. Set Pieces / Structured Phases
• City mildly positive
• Fulham mild negative
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
OVERALL: Manchester City
Why?
• Fulham’s biggest weakness (final third & set pieces) collides directly with City’s biggest strengths (control & stability)
• City’s control negates Fulham’s decent transitional threat
• Fulham cannot generate consistent danger vs top-6 defences
• Even City’s "weaknesses" are not weak relative to Fulham
Expected Match Flow:
• City dominate territory + ball
• Fulham get occasional transition chances
• City create more sustained xG, especially from zone 14 + set pieces
• Likely a City-tilted match unless Fulham score first
________________________________________
Manchester City should control the match comfortably, limit Fulham’s attacking output, and generate enough sustained pressure to be favourites.

How do you leverage this to identify trading opportunities?

[MrJoeBlack]

MATCH PREVIEW — Fulham vs Manchester City
________________________________________
Fulham —Identity Analysis
Strengths
(High control & possession capability at home)
Fulham at Craven Cottage have shown unusually strong dominance for a mid-table side.
(Above-average transitions)
They can move from regain → attack fairly efficiently.
(Moderate defensive activity)
Good enough to disrupt lower-quality midfields.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Weak final-third & shot creation identity)
A big issue vs an elite defensive structure.
(Slightly below average in set-piece phases)
(Neutral buildup stability)
Against City’s press, “average” may not be enough.
________________________________________
Manchester City — Away Identity Analysis
Strengths
(Elite control)
Top-tier possession control even away from home.
(Strong buildup stability)
Very resistant to pressure → play through opponents.
(Good in structured/set-piece phases)
Useful in tight games away.
________________________________________
Weaknesses
(Slightly below average disruption)
City do not rely on duels; they press via structure.
This drops vs athletic midfields.
(Mildly weak final-third finishing identity)
Chance creation is still strong, but conversion is less dynamic away.
________________________________________
Tactical Matchup: Phase-by-Phase Analysis
1. Possession Phase
• City dominate both possession and stability
• Fulham have above-average control at home, but not enough to compete with City
➡ Advantage: Manchester City (clear)
________________________________________
2. Defensive Disruption
• Fulham have slight defensive bite
• City’s away ball-winning is mediocre
This matters mainly in midfield transitions.
➡ Slight Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
3. Transitional Identity
• Fulham stronger
• City fine but less potent
Fulham can break lines, but they will not get many opportunities due to City’s control.
➡ Small Advantage: Fulham
________________________________________
4. Final-Third Threat
• Fulham significantly negative
• City mildly weak
But:
• Fulham create very little vs compact blocks
• City’s possession gives them many more entries into the box
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
5. Set Pieces / Structured Phases
• City mildly positive
• Fulham mild negative
➡ Advantage: Manchester City
________________________________________
OVERALL: Manchester City
Why?
• Fulham’s biggest weakness (final third & set pieces) collides directly with City’s biggest strengths (control & stability)
• City’s control negates Fulham’s decent transitional threat
• Fulham cannot generate consistent danger vs top-6 defences
• Even City’s "weaknesses" are not weak relative to Fulham
Expected Match Flow:
• City dominate territory + ball
• Fulham get occasional transition chances
• City create more sustained xG, especially from zone 14 + set pieces
• Likely a City-tilted match unless Fulham score first
________________________________________
Manchester City should control the match comfortably, limit Fulham’s attacking output, and generate enough sustained pressure to be favourites.

How do you leverage this to identify trading opportunities?

It's a work in progress. I come from a school of Bayesian thinking so, rather than looking for something in an absolute sense, I am looking to determine things probabilistically. Although it may not appear so here I am actually typically taking a much longer viewpoint with outright markets however liquidity can be an issue as can only being paid once a year - plus there are very few markets offered outside of the BPL so it's tricky. Single events are much harder but I have found by evaluating them at scale I can reduce some of the volatility. All of which brings me to trying to say that in my experience just looking at this one game in isolation is pointless really. I am primarily interested in evaluating the extent to which my profiling was accurate.

But looking at this game I would then investigate the individual player identities and how they contribute to the relative strengths and weaknesses. This would then form a second round of trading when the line-ups are announced. I'm looking for value so although City are favoured here they are also favoured by the market - whereas you might find there are better opportunities in the other games I post.

Initial thoughts on this game -

I might play something like Fulham Under 0.5 goals @ circa 2.9 given that they struggle to generate consistent danger vs top-6 defences. However, I would also hedge with overs on the O/U 2.5 goals market.

(OR) Manchester City Most Corners

• City hold the ball high
• Fulham absorb deep in long phases
→ Natural corner inflation for the away side.

But you could give the same insights to 10 different people and they would approach it 10 different ways. For me, I am just working on making the insights as accurate as possible.

[ShaunWhite]

Yes, not as easy as it may seem, quite a bit of work and brain power needed to scrap a few quid.

The first pound is the hardest, from then it's scaling up and thankfully there's often a decent amount of money around on football. Just don't lapse into being a punter, pick your price, add your margin, offer it and it'll either be matched via noise or twitchy punters, or not.

[MrJoeBlack]

I'm currently focussing on identity change (e.g. manager, key players, new season) and also modelling probabilities in the context of paired identities i.e. when identity x plays identity y what is the probability of [insert any possible market you can think of]. An example below:

On the basis of modelling across multiple leagues (which brings about several issues of its own but is in testing for now), one might estimate Bournemouth’s win probability in the range of 40–45%, a draw around 25–30%, and an Everton win 25–30%. The actual market is as follows: Bournemouth 43.86%, Draw 28.96%, and Everton 27.40%. As such - you can see why, even with that amount of modelling and analysis it's difficult to find an edge - but if you are looking closely and broadly enough at scale you'll find pricing errors.... (or errors with my model depending on your perspective!).

Bournemouth vs Everton: Match Preview
Bournemouth — Identity Analysis

Strengths
(Strong possession and control at Vitality) Bournemouth often dictate play when at home, using ball retention to build attacks patiently. Their style allows them to dominate midfield possession against weaker opponents.
(Effective transitions) The team is capable of quick breaks after regaining possession, turning defence into attack efficiently. This transitional identity can catch opponents off guard on the counter.
(Solid defensive work rate) Bournemouth press actively and contest duels in midfield. At home they maintain good structure and intensity, enough to disrupt mid-level attacks and force turnovers.

Weaknesses
(Inconsistent final-third output) The side tends to struggle in creating and converting chances in and around the box. Against organized defences, their chance creation and finishing are often underwhelming.
(Below-average set-piece threat) Bournemouth’s performance on set plays is modest. They generally produce limited danger from corners and free kicks, making this a relative weakness in their gameplan.
(Susceptible under high pressure) While possession-minded, the team’s build-up can be fragile. High-intensity pressing by strong opponents can unhinge their attack, and they rarely dominate high-press environments.

Everton — Away Identity Analysis

Strengths
(High defensive intensity) Everton’s away games emphasize physicality and pressing. They excel in duels and tackles, quickly closing down space. This disruption in the defensive phase allows them to break opponent possession and recover the ball more often.
(Effective in structured/set-piece phases) The team sets up well in tight games, especially on set plays. Tall defenders and disciplined marking make them a real threat on corners and free kicks, and they defend structured situations sturdily.
(Counter-attack potency) Everton transition quickly once possession is won. Even without dominating the ball, they exploit openings via long balls and rapid counters, making them dangerous when opponents overcommit.

Weaknesses
(Weak possession control away) On the road, Everton rarely hold the ball for long spells. Their possession metrics tend to be low, indicating they are often on the back foot and rely on defensive organization rather than controlling tempo.
(Below-average build-up stability) Under intense pressure, the team’s passing and progression into attack can falter. They lack the patience and precision of a high-possession side, which can lead to turnovers in risky areas.
(Struggles in final-third creativity) While efficient on counters, Everton’s ability to create sustained attacking opportunities is limited. They often lack inventive play in advanced positions, and this shortfall becomes apparent against compact defences.

Tactical Matchup: Phase-by-Phase Analysis

Possession/Control Phase
Bournemouth’s home identity gives them an edge in possession and control, as they tend to dominate midfield times when playing at Vitality. Everton, on the other hand, concede a lot of possession on the road and are content to invite pressure. In this phase, Bournemouth are likely to hold more of the ball and try to use it patiently.
➡ Advantage: Bournemouth (slight)

Defensive Disruption
Everton bring higher pressing and intensity to away games. They win more duels and quickly cut passing lanes, disrupting opponents’ rhythm. Bournemouth apply pressure too, but not at the same relentless level. This phase favours Everton’s capability to break up play and force turnovers.
➡ Advantage: Everton (slight)

Transitional Identity
Both teams counter-attack to some extent, but Bournemouth’s home build-up allows them more frequent opportunities to launch transitions. Everton will look to exploit turnovers as well, but Bournemouth’s sharper transitions give them a slight edge breaking lines once possession is recovered.
➡ Advantage: Bournemouth (small)

Final-Third Threat
In attacking areas, Everton’s clinical use of their chances and set-piece delivery gives them an advantage. Bournemouth’s creativity and finishing in the final third have been underwhelming lately, especially against compact opponents. Everton, despite not building sustained possession, often generate higher-quality entries into the box when they do.
➡ Advantage: Everton

Set Pieces / Structured Phases
Everton clearly outperform in structured play. Their aerial strength and disciplined marking make them dangerous on corners and free kicks, both offensively and defensively. Bournemouth, by contrast, show only moderate impact on set pieces. In this phase, Everton’s organized play is superior.
➡ Advantage: Everton (clear)

OVERALL: Bournemouth’s strengths in possession and transition will meet Everton’s compact and aggressive defence, but Everton’s key advantages align well against Bournemouth’s weaknesses. In particular, Bournemouth’s below-par final-third execution and set-piece effectiveness collide with Everton’s proficiency in those areas. Everton’s intensity and structure will also neutralize much of Bournemouth’s control. As a result, Everton’s stylistic strengths (defensive disruption and set-piece efficiency) may mean they shade the value in the outright market over Bournemouth’s home-oriented strengths.

[ShaunWhite]

I do everything in Python and excel.

Have you looked at scikit-learn? Pls excuse the lazy reply but I asked chat to expand on that.

Why scikit-learn first...

Works perfectly with non-temporal, tabular data (match-level stats, team ratings, etc.).

Simple API, quick to test baseline models (logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting).

Gives clean probability outputs (predict_proba) for outcome modelling.

Great for learning the workflow: preprocessing → model → evaluation.

Easy to extend later to CatBoost / LightGBM if he wants more power.

[MrJoeBlack]

Match Preview — Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur

Newcastle United — Home Identity Analysis

Strengths
Fast transitional play: Newcastle move from defense to attack quickly at home, often catching opponents before they can reset.
Respectable attacking output: They generate a decent volume of chances at St. James’ Park, making them a consistent threat in the final third.
Organized without possession: Newcastle can maintain a compact, disciplined shape when out of possession, allowing them to absorb pressure and strike on the counter.

Weaknesses
Limited possession control: The Magpies do not typically dominate the ball at home, often ceding possession and territory to the opposition.
Below-average pressing disruptiveness: Their defensive intensity and ball-winning in midfield are not particularly high, which can grant skilled opponents more time on the ball.
Underwhelming set-piece threat: Newcastle have not capitalized on set-piece situations as much as other sides, making this a relatively weaker avenue for goals.

Tottenham Hotspur — Away Identity Analysis

Strengths
Proactive possession & build-up: Spurs are comfortable controlling the ball away from home, confidently playing through pressure to dictate the tempo of games.
Quick transitional threat: When play turns over, Tottenham can break forward at speed – a direct, fast-paced attack that punishes teams leaving space in behind.
Consistent chance creation: Even on their travels, Spurs produce regular scoring opportunities through dynamic attacking movements and creativity in the final third.

Weaknesses
Mediocre defensive disruption: Tottenham’s away setup does not emphasize high physical ball-winning, which can sometimes concede the initiative to opposition midfields.
Limited set-piece impact: Spurs are not particularly strong on set plays or other structured phases, tending to rely on open play for goals.
Finishing efficiency not elite: While chances are created, their final-third execution away from home isn’t at an elite conversion level – dominance in possession doesn’t always translate into a high scoreline.

Tactical Matchup: Phase-by-Phase Analysis

Possession/Control
Tottenham will likely dominate possession and tempo with their superior control identity.
Newcastle, by contrast, often sit off at home and are content playing without the ball for stretches.
➡ Advantage: Tottenham (clear)

Defensive Disruption
Newcastle’s pressing and duels at home are energetic but not top-tier in effectiveness.
Tottenham’s away side isn’t very aggressive in ball-winning either, focusing more on maintaining shape than on risky challenges.
➡ Slight Advantage: Newcastle (in physical battles)

Transitional Identity
Both teams can be dangerous in transition, but Tottenham’s pace on the break is particularly strong and direct.
Newcastle also have a quick counter-punch, though they may get fewer opportunities if Spurs control possession as expected.
➡ Advantage: Tottenham (marginal)

Final-Third Threat
Newcastle carry a moderate threat in the final third at home, able to create and convert chances at a reasonable rate.
Tottenham have a slightly stronger attacking output, consistently finding openings even away from home through their forward talent.
➡ Slight Advantage: Tottenham

Set Pieces / Structured Phases
Newcastle are roughly average on set pieces but have the aerial presence to trouble Spurs’ defence on free kicks and corners.
Tottenham have been notably weak in set-piece situations on the road, often failing to make an impact in these structured moments.
➡ Advantage: Newcastle

OVERALL: Lean towards Spurs as value. Also dig deep on discipline probabilities as cards are potentially mispriced.

Newcastle’s biggest shortcoming (possession control) plays directly into Tottenham’s strength in dictating play. Spurs can monopolize the ball, limiting Newcastle’s time to build attacks. Tottenham’s ability to attack quickly in transition can nullify one of Newcastle’s usual weapons by effectively beating them at their own counter-attacking game. Newcastle may struggle to create sustained pressure from open play against Spurs’ organized defensive structure, making their moderate final-third threat less impactful. Tottenham’s main weaknesses (such as set pieces) are relatively narrow. While Newcastle can exploit set-piece opportunities, that alone may not be enough to swing the balance given Spurs’ advantages elsewhere.

Tottenham should control possession for extended periods, probing Newcastle’s defensive shape and forcing the home side to defend deep. Newcastle will look to disrupt Spurs in bursts and spring fast counter-attacks whenever Tottenham’s advanced positioning leaves gaps. Spurs are likely to generate more continuous chances from open play, whereas Newcastle’s best opportunities may come from quick breaks or dead-ball situations. It should be competitive, but Tottenham’s control of key phases could gradually tilt momentum in their favour unless Newcastle capitalize on an early chance or set-piece. I wouldn't be backing Newcastle at odds on.

[MrJoeBlack]

So there you go, those are the insights I have on the games in the BPL tonight. I have games in other leagues as well and cup matches. Let me know if you manage to turn any of that into gold - i'd been interested to know how. Or if anyone has any suggestions on blind spots or improvements they would also be appreciated.

[Nickse34]

I do everything in Python and excel.

Have you looked at scikit-learn? Pls excuse the lazy reply but I asked chat to expand on that.

Why scikit-learn first...

Works perfectly with non-temporal, tabular data (match-level stats, team ratings, etc.).

Simple API, quick to test baseline models (logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting).

Gives clean probability outputs (predict_proba) for outcome modelling.

Great for learning the workflow: preprocessing → model → evaluation.

Easy to extend later to CatBoost / LightGBM if he wants more power.

Nice, never heard of it before but it looks very interesting. Thanks

[Nickse34]

Yes, not as easy as it may seem, quite a bit of work and brain power needed to scrap a few quid.

The first pound is the hardest, from then it's scaling up and thankfully there's often a decent amount of money around on football. Just don't lapse into being a punter, pick your price, add your margin, offer it and it'll either be matched via noise or twitchy punters, or not.

Thanks Shaun

[ShaunWhite]

Nice, never heard of it before but it looks very interesting. Thanks

I've never used it myself as what I do is temporal forecasting not pricing probabilities. But earlier this year I started using TFT and PyTorch Forecasting (with tensor flow charting) and it's just been a nice change from having to think about and find your own correlations and setting up tests and outputs. And having to learn python did no harm but you'll have that in the bag already thankfully.

I asked chat what's similar that would suit someone using fundamentals (not time series) and it suggested that scikit-learn. And I've seen it mentioned a lot amongst the auto/quant traders so I assume it's got something going for it and worth mentioning. It's 2026 soon, tools like these are free and accessible so I thought it was worth a switch up after doing the same old thing for years. Old dogs can learn new tricks if the treat seems worth it.

[MrJoeBlack]

Nice, never heard of it before but it looks very interesting. Thanks

I've never used it myself as what I do is temporal forecasting not pricing probabilities. But earlier this year I started using TFT and PyTorch Forecasting (with tensor flow charting) and it's just been a nice change from having to think about and find your own correlations and setting up tests and outputs. And having to learn python did no harm but you'll have that in the bag already thankfully.

I asked chat what's similar that would suit someone using fundamentals (not time series) and it suggested that scikit-learn. And I've seen it mentioned a lot amongst the auto/quant traders so I assume it's got something going for it and worth mentioning. It's 2026 soon, tools like these are free and accessible so I thought it was worth a switch up after doing the same old thing for years. Old dogs can learn new tricks if the treat seems worth it.

Without giving anything away, I would assume that certain markets and sports aren't as sharp as your model when reforming the market after an 'event'? Although not a natural market for this, I have found this is an exploitable edge in pre-off horse racing when there are late non-runners.