Trading Greyhound racing

[Fugazi]

I couldn't agree more Tom. Keep it simple, basic fundamentals. Each animal has a 1:6 chance of winning ....

A year later I'm still pondering this.

I think you're alluding to dutching / bookmaking.

Could just be backing everything >6.0?

Come on we all know patterns like that never work

[Mike Oxlong]

109/1 winner on the 14:16 Valley. Very wet conditions by the looks of it.

[Crazyskier]

109/1 winner on the 14:16 Valley. Very wet conditions by the looks of it.

Yes - managed to snag a place with one of my strategies. Was amazed when I saw that he won it at those odds. Almost unheard of to have odds that high, let alone a winner.

CS

[firlandsfarm]

109/1 winner on the 14:16 Valley. Very wet conditions by the looks of it.

Yes - managed to snag a place with one of my strategies. Was amazed when I saw that he won it at those odds. Almost unheard of to have odds that high, let alone a winner.

CS

Odds of 1000.00 can win races!

[Mike Oxlong]

Last five races for the winner, would have done well to pick it on form!

[Crazyskier]

109/1 winner on the 14:16 Valley. Very wet conditions by the looks of it.

Yes - managed to snag a place with one of my strategies. Was amazed when I saw that he won it at those odds. Almost unheard of to have odds that high, let alone a winner.

CS

Odds of 1000.00 can win races!

Not on the greyhounds, which is what we're talking about. It's rare to get a BSP of 100, and never 1000, to my knowledge.

CS

[jamesedwards]

Yes - managed to snag a place with one of my strategies. Was amazed when I saw that he won it at those odds. Almost unheard of to have odds that high, let alone a winner.

CS

Odds of 1000.00 can win races!

Not on the greyhounds, which is what we're talking about. It's rare to get a BSP of 100, and never 1000, to my knowledge.

CS

Open races yes, but I don't think I've ever seen a 100.0+ winner of a graded race.

[MemphisFlash]

After losing all my bet angel settings and configurations i now have my system somewhere
how i like it after 2 weeks of messing around, i now have my perfect greyhound setup, with
bet angel interacting with guardian and excel. Much better than it was before.
Sometimes it's good to de-clutter and start again even if it was forced on me, (thank you Windows Update)
My friend Graham helped immensly.

Screenshot 2025-11-28 160957.png

[MemphisFlash]

Another Productive Day fully botted.

Screenshot 2025-11-28 220021.png

[firlandsfarm]

Yes - managed to snag a place with one of my strategies. Was amazed when I saw that he won it at those odds. Almost unheard of to have odds that high, let alone a winner.

CS

Odds of 1000.00 can win races!

Not on the greyhounds, which is what we're talking about. It's rare to get a BSP of 100, and never 1000, to my knowledge.

CS

Yes I didn't take into account it is a greyhound thread but that it has not happened yet does not mean it cannot happen but you were right to point it out.

[MemphisFlash]

Going Well

Screenshot 2025-12-02 223730.png

[wearthefoxhat]

Last five races for the winner, would have done well to pick it on form!

W Tommy.png

True, but there are a couple of indicators that would have been favourable.

1. Drop in grade is usually for out of form types, but does improve % probability if other factors support it.
2. Recent sprint trials/race, then put into a normal distance race, expect a fast start if drawn well.
3. Trap 5 may have been a better trap, especially if T6 was a slow starter, (or if there was no T6 in the race)
4. The last column rating was it's best recent one even though unfancied and easily beaten last run.
5. A lightly raced runner, good strike rate, (Runs 22 Wins 5), especially for a 4 year old "regressive" greyhound.

Would I have backed it if it was a race I had evaluated?

Quite likely at that price, as I'm sure my tissue would have likely been high single figures.

[wearthefoxhat]

Going Well

Screenshot 2025-12-02 223730.png

Nice work!

[Mike Oxlong]

Last five races for the winner, would have done well to pick it on form!

W Tommy.png


True, but there are a couple of indicators that would have been favourable.

1. Drop in grade is usually for out of form types, but does improve % probability if other factors support it.
2. Recent sprint trials/race, then put into a normal distance race, expect a fast start if drawn well.
3. Trap 5 may have been a better trap, especially if T6 was a slow starter, (or if there was no T6 in the race)
4. The last column rating was it's best recent one even though unfancied and easily beaten last run.
5. A lightly raced runner, good strike rate, (Runs 22 Wins 5), especially for a 4 year old "regressive" greyhound.

Would I have backed it if it was a race I had evaluated?

Quite likely at that price, as I'm sure my tissue would have likely been high single figures.

Agree with these points, though it is much easier to say this with hindsight.

[wearthefoxhat]

Last five races for the winner, would have done well to pick it on form!

W Tommy.png


True, but there are a couple of indicators that would have been favourable.

1. Drop in grade is usually for out of form types, but does improve % probability if other factors support it.
2. Recent sprint trials/race, then put into a normal distance race, expect a fast start if drawn well.
3. Trap 5 may have been a better trap, especially if T6 was a slow starter, (or if there was no T6 in the race)
4. The last column rating was it's best recent one even though unfancied and easily beaten last run.
5. A lightly raced runner, good strike rate, (Runs 22 Wins 5), especially for a 4 year old "regressive" greyhound.

Would I have backed it if it was a race I had evaluated?

Quite likely at that price, as I'm sure my tissue would have likely been high single figures.

Agree with these points, though it is much easier to say this with hindsight.

I know what you mean. However, I've found some strong trends on greyhounds/horse racing/football etc.. when looking at past results that the market has under valued. (all part of finding some sort of edge).

In the example of Willbrook Tommy, all said and done, if I'd estimated a tissue price probability of 10% and the market said it was 1%, there's a 9% differential in pricing. Value staking would have to be representative of this in some way. Could of gone unbacked if my rules were tighter and only looked at those with a book edge of 15%+.