Hi Folks,
I would like to put right a well worn concept concerning trading that seems to occur frequently in vids and on forums .The idea that if you just trade randomely you will end up at break even .This concept is then reinforced by likening trading to the flip of a coin or a colour on the roulette wheel .
The idea is nonsense of the highest order .You cannot apply dualistic dimensional probability to a multidimensional probability ( ie the coin and roulette example are dualistic and there can only be one of two outcomes which over a period of time even out) .
Randome trading will result in heavy losses before it will result in heavy gains ,it can have a number of outcomes not just one (break evens) .
The idea of random trading has also been related to negative/positive expectation . How anyone can relate the probability of a trading outcome to positive and negative expectation is beyond me .These are two entirely different concepts .
So for any newbies out there if anyone tells you that random trading will end up in a break even scenario just ignore and move on.
Kinders
Tico
