MrJoeBlack wrote: ↑Tue Dec 02, 2025 4:23 pm
I'm currently focussing on identity change (e.g. manager, key players, new season) and also modelling probabilities in the context of paired identities i.e. when identity x plays identity y what is the probability of [insert any possible market you can think of]. An example below:
On the basis of modelling across multiple leagues (which brings about several issues of its own but is in testing for now), one might estimate Bournemouth’s win probability in the range of 40–45%, a draw around 25–30%, and an Everton win 25–30%. The actual market is as follows: Bournemouth 43.86%, Draw 28.96%, and Everton 27.40%. As such - you can see why, even with that amount of modelling and analysis it's difficult to find an edge - but if you are looking closely and broadly enough at scale you'll find pricing errors.... (or errors with my model depending on your perspective!).
Bournemouth vs Everton: Match Preview
Bournemouth — Identity Analysis
Strengths
(Strong possession and control at Vitality) Bournemouth often dictate play when at home, using ball retention to build attacks patiently. Their style allows them to dominate midfield possession against weaker opponents.
(Effective transitions) The team is capable of quick breaks after regaining possession, turning defence into attack efficiently. This transitional identity can catch opponents off guard on the counter.
(Solid defensive work rate) Bournemouth press actively and contest duels in midfield. At home they maintain good structure and intensity, enough to disrupt mid-level attacks and force turnovers.
Weaknesses
(Inconsistent final-third output) The side tends to struggle in creating and converting chances in and around the box. Against organized defences, their chance creation and finishing are often underwhelming.
(Below-average set-piece threat) Bournemouth’s performance on set plays is modest. They generally produce limited danger from corners and free kicks, making this a relative weakness in their gameplan.
(Susceptible under high pressure) While possession-minded, the team’s build-up can be fragile. High-intensity pressing by strong opponents can unhinge their attack, and they rarely dominate high-press environments.
Everton — Away Identity Analysis
Strengths
(High defensive intensity) Everton’s away games emphasize physicality and pressing. They excel in duels and tackles, quickly closing down space. This disruption in the defensive phase allows them to break opponent possession and recover the ball more often.
(Effective in structured/set-piece phases) The team sets up well in tight games, especially on set plays. Tall defenders and disciplined marking make them a real threat on corners and free kicks, and they defend structured situations sturdily.
(Counter-attack potency) Everton transition quickly once possession is won. Even without dominating the ball, they exploit openings via long balls and rapid counters, making them dangerous when opponents overcommit.
Weaknesses
(Weak possession control away) On the road, Everton rarely hold the ball for long spells. Their possession metrics tend to be low, indicating they are often on the back foot and rely on defensive organization rather than controlling tempo.
(Below-average build-up stability) Under intense pressure, the team’s passing and progression into attack can falter. They lack the patience and precision of a high-possession side, which can lead to turnovers in risky areas.
(Struggles in final-third creativity) While efficient on counters, Everton’s ability to create sustained attacking opportunities is limited. They often lack inventive play in advanced positions, and this shortfall becomes apparent against compact defences.
Tactical Matchup: Phase-by-Phase Analysis
Possession/Control Phase
Bournemouth’s home identity gives them an edge in possession and control, as they tend to dominate midfield times when playing at Vitality. Everton, on the other hand, concede a lot of possession on the road and are content to invite pressure. In this phase, Bournemouth are likely to hold more of the ball and try to use it patiently.
➡ Advantage: Bournemouth (slight)
Defensive Disruption
Everton bring higher pressing and intensity to away games. They win more duels and quickly cut passing lanes, disrupting opponents’ rhythm. Bournemouth apply pressure too, but not at the same relentless level. This phase favours Everton’s capability to break up play and force turnovers.
➡ Advantage: Everton (slight)
Transitional Identity
Both teams counter-attack to some extent, but Bournemouth’s home build-up allows them more frequent opportunities to launch transitions. Everton will look to exploit turnovers as well, but Bournemouth’s sharper transitions give them a slight edge breaking lines once possession is recovered.
➡ Advantage: Bournemouth (small)
Final-Third Threat
In attacking areas, Everton’s clinical use of their chances and set-piece delivery gives them an advantage. Bournemouth’s creativity and finishing in the final third have been underwhelming lately, especially against compact opponents. Everton, despite not building sustained possession, often generate higher-quality entries into the box when they do.
➡ Advantage: Everton
Set Pieces / Structured Phases
Everton clearly outperform in structured play. Their aerial strength and disciplined marking make them dangerous on corners and free kicks, both offensively and defensively. Bournemouth, by contrast, show only moderate impact on set pieces. In this phase, Everton’s organized play is superior.
➡ Advantage: Everton (clear)
OVERALL: Bournemouth’s strengths in possession and transition will meet Everton’s compact and aggressive defence, but Everton’s key advantages align well against Bournemouth’s weaknesses. In particular, Bournemouth’s below-par final-third execution and set-piece effectiveness collide with Everton’s proficiency in those areas. Everton’s intensity and structure will also neutralize much of Bournemouth’s control. As a result, Everton’s stylistic strengths (defensive disruption and set-piece efficiency) may mean they shade the value in the outright market over Bournemouth’s home-oriented strengths.
I've been looking for good options over the last few weeks...
(Strong possession and control at Vitality) Bournemouth often dictate play when at home, using ball retention to build attacks patiently. Their style allows them to dominate midfield possession against weaker opponents.
(Inconsistent final-third output) The side tends to struggle in creating and converting chances in and around the box. Against organized defences, their chance creation and finishing are often underwhelming.