Maths - I need some guidance

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Emtaxx
Posts: 406
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:00 pm

Hi all,

Another year has passed so its time for that terrible thing to do ... Reflect on the ups and downs the targets we missed and the ones we hit.

I'm kind of embarrassed on this as its a huge part of the puzzel I've totally over looked.

A quick summary is that my first yeah of BA and I've been only focused on the mechanics of developing indicators and solving puzzles within the markets, however its only just dawned on me I'm missing a very big key in automation. The Maths..

The Math on a basic level, I have not been treating things equally in oppotunities when I enter a trade i.e. please correct me if I'm wrong but I've not been staking at liability (this allows you to place bets with a 50/50 type execution i.e odds of 10 on 10p is 1p and therefore if I lose the bet it will be a 10p loss or a 10p gain.

Next is the opptunities, I've been just firing bets when they are triggered, again this is not the correct thing to do, the best method would be to set a max number of matched bets keeping the field level i.e. 2 bets per selection, this then also allows a more fairer approach.

Moving forward I'm going to now set conditons which follow:

'unmatched bets on the current selection <2'
'matched bets on the current selection <3'

So with this new approach only 2 unmatched bets are allowed on the selection at any time and also only 3 matched bets are allowed on any one selection allowing oppotunities to be spread amoungst all runner evenly.

My question are:
1. is this the correct way to do this? Imagine you could go a step further and use signals, but this should do the trick for now?
2. also are there any other tricks you'd recommend or insights which could help me.

I think I've created enough mechanics to gain an edge, as I've had mutiple weeks of upward trends however (500 markets), then varience kicks in and eats away at all of those days waiting for the rule of numbers to eat away at itself and present me with I dont have an edge at all.

I remeber watching Peter Webb Video saying (removing commision) its just a 50/50 situation which I've overlooked entirely...
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