Trading Greyhound racing

[Barrakee]

Hi Folks,

Newbie here looking at beginning my automated greyhound trading journey. Moreso as a hobby/challenge than any illusions of getting rich. I will be using very small stakes.

Im wondering what people experiences are with developing strategies and backtesting. How hard is it to develop strategies without having an 'intuition' based on a lot of screen time watching/trading markets? Is it feasible that someone without any manual trading experience could develop an automated strategy based on backtesting from historical data?

[Aberdeentrad]

I think this is definitely possible, I did a bit of manual trading on horses but it was a strategy based on backtesting so I knew I was getting value as long as I stuck to my rules. Once I got the hang of betangel I realised it could be fully automated.

I’ve since moved onto greyhounds as the number of markets give lots of opportunities for getting data and testing automation via practice mode (to check functionality rather than profitability) and live mode testing with tiny stakes.

[firlandsfarm]

Is it feasible that someone without any manual trading experience could develop an automated strategy based on backtesting from historical data?

Yes but don't forget that old adage of "Past performance does not guarantee future results" especially when backtesting. And the more filters you use to create your advantage the more the possibility of back-fitting. I would suggest you go for few filters and a low edge % from many bets to start and slowly look to adjust your filters to increase your edge. Remember always ask yourself "why?" ... why does that filter give an edge or is it just statistical?

[Damo]

Hi Folks,

Newbie here looking at beginning my automated greyhound trading journey. Moreso as a hobby/challenge than any illusions of getting rich. I will be using very small stakes.

Im wondering what people experiences are with developing strategies and backtesting. How hard is it to develop strategies without having an 'intuition' based on a lot of screen time watching/trading markets? Is it feasible that someone without any manual trading experience could develop an automated strategy based on backtesting from historical data?

Some feedback:

1) You need to determine whether you are targeting a price edge or, if you are looking to hedge trade in/out and play volume. These are two very different market participants with very different objectives.

2) True backtesting is challenging, for two primary reasons: a) markets reshape on withdrawals/reserves and b) markets respond to participant interaction - particularly an issue if you’re looking at hedge trading.

When it comes to statistical analysis, the focus should always be less on ROI and more on identifying a consistent strike rate over an extended period. That way, the strategy absorbs variance and expresses observable trend.

Are there edges? Absolutely - and some are huge. Analysing data is key and the right path is to approach it as a hobby. It helps if you have a background in mathematics / applied statistical, as several techniques can be used.

From someone who’s done this for over 20yrs, what I’d say is to ignore all of the ‘received wisdom’. Instead, do your own research; collect data and then measure and test your own hypotheses - and don’t allow yourself to get married to anything.