I don't get it

[Euler]

In my experience of teaching others, it's often your own psychology that gets in the way.

I was terrible at trading short term on financials, but by the time I started Betfair trading, I'd got rid of all my bad habits.

But I was the total opposite, I made a career trading financial markets, and cant make a penny doing this, I just cant work it out, its driving me mad!

I think the lack of liquidity is somthing that messes with me, I can put a stop in at X price but that doesnt mean it'll be filled, at times its like trading on some random Chinese crypto exchange...

We all have bad days when seemingly nothing goes right.


z388.jpg

Generally a tough day today. Hate it when the weather sets in etc at this time of year.

[jamesedwards]

Trust me i'm trying to, I'm trying to get filled at favourable prices (4.0 to 2.0), to keep my liability in check but I keep getting trapped in bad trades, the market then moves so fast in the closing stages of the race that greeing up or trying to trade out of your position just seems like random buttom mashing!

I'm pretty close to giving up really, I feel like I've wasted two years just playing some kind of random game....

Greening up in-running on horses is best avoided. You need to beat the 1 second delay where possible or the whole thing becomes much harder.

Try one of the following:
> When placing value trades into the market, use stakes you are comfortable losing in full and let them ride.
> When identifying a negative signal and placing a lay trade into the market, put up a simultaneous back trade at X ticks above.
> When identifying a positive signal and placing a back trade into the market, put up a simultaneous lay trade at X ticks below.

[Goobs]

Trust me i'm trying to, I'm trying to get filled at favourable prices (4.0 to 2.0), to keep my liability in check but I keep getting trapped in bad trades, the market then moves so fast in the closing stages of the race that greeing up or trying to trade out of your position just seems like random buttom mashing!

I'm pretty close to giving up really, I feel like I've wasted two years just playing some kind of random game....

Trying to trade in-play?

I have been for the past 3 months now....zero clue so far!

I purchased the course from Trader Carl as he seemed to know how to make serious money doing this.........course was an utter waste of time, just videos of him trading and not really explainng why or what he was doing.

[Euler]

Is there no theory in it? No structure?

[jamesedwards]

Trust me i'm trying to, I'm trying to get filled at favourable prices (4.0 to 2.0), to keep my liability in check but I keep getting trapped in bad trades, the market then moves so fast in the closing stages of the race that greeing up or trying to trade out of your position just seems like random buttom mashing!

I'm pretty close to giving up really, I feel like I've wasted two years just playing some kind of random game....

Trying to trade in-play?

I have been for the past 3 months now....zero clue so far!

I purchased the course from Trader Carl as he seemed to know how to make serious money doing this.........course was an utter waste of time, just videos of him trading and not really explainng why or what he was doing.

email me your telegram ID.

[Goobs]

Trust me i'm trying to, I'm trying to get filled at favourable prices (4.0 to 2.0), to keep my liability in check but I keep getting trapped in bad trades, the market then moves so fast in the closing stages of the race that greeing up or trying to trade out of your position just seems like random buttom mashing!

I'm pretty close to giving up really, I feel like I've wasted two years just playing some kind of random game....

Greening up in-running on horses is best avoided. You need to beat the 1 second delay where possible or the whole thing becomes much harder.

Try one of the following:
> When placing value trades into the market, use stakes you are comfortable losing in full and let them ride.
> When identifying a negative signal and placing a lay trade into the market, put up a simultaneous back trade at X ticks above.
> When identifying a positive signal and placing a back trade into the market, put up a simultaneous lay trade at X ticks below.

Yes that's what I've been doing, I'm trying to only lay around 4.0-2.0 at around 4 I should be right about 75% of the time, and I'm also greening up at 25 ticks to further increase my strike rate, but this does reduce your profit quite a bit, still not sure if thats a correct approch?

I've found using the in-play tool much easier to see all runners vs using the ladders, thats another major differance going from financlais to this is the lograthmic price scale! That one took me ages to wrap my head around!

I just managed to get 4 lays in on the fav at Ayr

[Goobs]

Is there no theory in it? No structure?

Exactly that, it's just lots of videos of him trading in real time, which is great to see what he's doing, but if you dont know why or how its a bit pointless, he doesn't really speak of any money management how to size risk, doesnt even mention prices once.... so without some bones on the videos they are pretty useless to me!

[Euler]

My experience of inplay trading is that you have three different phases, all act very differently.

The start, middle and end are all seperate markets and strategies. You can't carry a strategy between those phases.

But also that definition of start, end is different according to the race type and distance.

[Big Bad Barney]

I reckon it's just cause everyone is different...very different. Every kind of idiot you can think of exists in the world in their own little niche Some like to spend their 60 years on looking at numbers, some like to spend it talking to other idiots........doing those things well requires different traits...

I have a relative who has been fairly financially successful over his life time....but convincing him to use Betfair isn't remotely on his radar...he insists on using the TAB. (they are the best in his mind...australia, horse racing). I'm not entirely convinced he understands what the gambling fallacy is either. Yet.....he's successful at analyzing stock valuations and various accounting things....

This particular relative is of the age where listening to horse races on the radio was a thing... and that was his hobby as a teenager.

His mind is now in decline and so is horse racing.

Sportsbet over here in Australia seem to advertise buddy bets and things quiet a lot.....so for some people the social aspects of losing money is important to them That just isn't remotely a thing on betfair.

[JuiceyJones]

This thread derailed quickly.

I have a couple of friends who live in New Jersey who got Betfair accounts when they were open in the US briefly. They were completely turned off by the whole thing coming from regular bookies and closed thier accounts within a month. Yet these same guys are all about Polymarket and Kalshi. Can't get enough of it now. Which, honestly, when you click on a market and look at the options looks a lot more complecated to me than the BF order book.

Goobs. You seem like an ok fella. But your posts in this thread smells a bit entitled. Finanical markets vs Betfair. You ever watch Wigan play Bath in the cross code series back in the early 2000s? Each got stuffed in their alternate codes. Same sport but 2 different games.

Also. Personally it took me 2.5 years to stop losing money. Then another 18 months of breaking even before becoming consistently profitable. Getting your panties in a twist about some arbitary timeline with no wins to show seems petulant. If you've watched 100 of hours of Bet Angel vids online why are you suprised that you are getting your pants pulled down when trying to exit red trades in the last 25% of a race. Or confused as to why stops dont really work in-play.

People have been very nice to you though. Stick with it. I wish you the best.

[Emtaxx]

In my experience of teaching others, it's often your own psychology that gets in the way.

I was terrible at trading short term on financials, but by the time I started Betfair trading, I'd got rid of all my bad habits.

But I was the total opposite, I made a career trading financial markets, and cant make a penny doing this, I just cant work it out, its driving me mad!

I think the lack of liquidity is somthing that messes with me, I can put a stop in at X price but that doesnt mean it'll be filled, at times its like trading on some random Chinese crypto exchange...

We all have bad days when seemingly nothing goes right.


z388.jpg

Refreshing to see this kind of post James

[Emtaxx]

My experience of inplay trading is that you have three different phases, all act very differently.

The start, middle and end are all seperate markets and strategies. You can't carry a strategy between those phases.

But also that definition of start, end is different according to the race type and distance.

Good post this euler, good way to look at things

[Emtaxx]

Trust me i'm trying to, I'm trying to get filled at favourable prices (4.0 to 2.0), to keep my liability in check but I keep getting trapped in bad trades, the market then moves so fast in the closing stages of the race that greeing up or trying to trade out of your position just seems like random buttom mashing!

I'm pretty close to giving up really, I feel like I've wasted two years just playing some kind of random game....

Greening up in-running on horses is best avoided. You need to beat the 1 second delay where possible or the whole thing becomes much harder.

Try one of the following:
> When placing value trades into the market, use stakes you are comfortable losing in full and let them ride.
> When identifying a negative signal and placing a lay trade into the market, put up a simultaneous back trade at X ticks above.
> When identifying a positive signal and placing a back trade into the market, put up a simultaneous lay trade at X ticks below.

Yes that's what I've been doing, I'm trying to only lay around 4.0-2.0 at around 4 I should be right about 75% of the time, and I'm also greening up at 25 ticks to further increase my strike rate, but this does reduce your profit quite a bit, still not sure if thats a correct approch?

I've found using the in-play tool much easier to see all runners vs using the ladders, thats another major differance going from financlais to this is the lograthmic price scale! That one took me ages to wrap my head around!

I just managed to get 4 lays in on the fav at Ayr

It is really hard, even when you've found a setup. the next issue is where do I put my stake which is also a major problem of its own lol

Manual trading is very hard, but applying stop loss, bets to suit the price/odds (so all money management) make the experience easier.

I cannot manual trade, my heart races from the anxiety of being wrong and losing money. I realised this behaviour (even if I was to make 50K a year from it) would knock off years on my life with a heart beating more than it must... Thats why I moved to automation its hard work, different physcology, more a being patient for the results to come in and also not wanting to be a complete failiure again, becasue being a failiure sucks!

also 15pounds profit is alot for someone who keeps losing?

maybe give automation ago, remote earning, you can live life without wasting your time looking at the ladders, removes bad habits and is far faster and better at spotting setups than you will be. Thats if you can code it to what you want... you're bots only as good as you code it annoyingly!

Also you mention you try and get into positions which are favourable. What makes them favourable? they well may be prices accuretly which means no value, getting value is the goal in this game. A good insight Euler gave away which I've been looking into is 'trading volatility'. it will either be weakeneing or strenghining for either a back or a lay bet you'll see alot in these markets with the reasons why if you're watching footage simultaniously. defintely a good area to gain a valued price someone might want to buy off you

[Lynskey888]

Going back to Peter’s original question, I think a large part of the problem is the lack of promotion. I see a constant stream of TV adverts for the major bookmakers yet there’s nothing pushing the exchange; only the casino and the sportsbook.

The media don’t help the volume either. ITV Racing are always going on about the “price on the exchanges”, but I’ve yet to see a piece championing the benefits of peer-to-peer betting.

Why anyone placing singles on horses in particular would take the shorter prices offered by the books is baffling. The exchange interface takes 15 minutes to get your head around. Surely it’s not beyond folk who are already placing bets online. Even my old dad rarely goes into a bookmaker’s shop these days.

Of course, people should use the exchange for other sports as well. They’d get better prices (sometimes!); books with a smaller overround; and the ability to “cash out” whenever they want (in a liquid market) rather than waiting for their bookie’s permission.

But if nobody tells them about it, how will they find out?

[ShaunWhite]

The media don’t help the volume either. ITV Racing are always going on about the “price on the exchanges”, but I’ve yet to see a piece championing the benefits of peer-to-peer betting.

Telly are careful not to bite the hand that feeds it. ITV make a ton of money from bookies ads.

But I think the constant (and quite surprising) reference to exchange prices is a good thing and a good advert for them ..... But there's a problem when people try it; exchange prices fluctuate so much that 3 mates all get different prices within 2 minutes. It's hard to explain to the guy who got the worst price that he still got a good deal, instead of him feeling ripped off.

I think all the smart/big stakes money is already on Betair, it's only the leisure punters and value-ignorant who aren't and I don't think they'd bring much to the table.