21 yr old looking for all round advice

[Simoba]

My advice to anybody starting off in Betfair Trading is DONT.

There are proper markets out there in Currency and Equity markets that will pay you x 100 more than any horse race will over the course of 5 years.

The people who make their money from Betfair wont tell you how to do it and it will take you years to work it out. The risk to return is awful. Dont bother. Try and trade equity markets and invest for the long term.

Sports trading is for mugs unless you know exactly how/why/when/where the markets are going and nobody is going to tell you.

I so agree with this post. If I was 21 again, I would certainly not be starting off now on Betfair. No way Jose. Earn your money from working, upscale your skills there and invest your money accordingly.

[Goobs]

I think as more and more people come to speak out about this game being mostly a loss making exercise for the vast majority of participants, expect it to get locked in 3.....2......1.....

[jamesedwards]

Proverbs 13:20

[wearthefoxhat]

Add in the mix, something that Peter Webb has highlighted before, would also make the difference between starting something or maybe just giving up completely.

This is likely to be the best starting point for anyone new to the game, (and a reminder for anyone that still makes the same mistakes).

---

He argues that the greatest obstacle to success isn't a lack of technical strategy, but the "primitive brain" and its hardwired emotional responses. He frequently references the "Devil Inside," which is his term for the internal conflict between our logical understanding of a trade and our emotional reaction to risk. The most destructive of these traits is loss aversion—the psychological tendency to feel the pain of a loss far more intensely than the joy of a corresponding gain. This often leads traders to "hold on" to losing positions in the hope of a turnaround, effectively turning a controlled trade into a reckless gamble.

To mitigate these risks, he emphasizes that trading is less about finding a "magic" formula and more about playing the "loser's game." This means winning by simply avoiding the common, unforced errors that most people make due to their biology. He highlights apophenia (the tendency to see patterns in random data) as a major pitfall, warning traders not to mistake a lucky streak for a repeatable system. Instead of chasing a single "golden egg" strategy, He advocates for consistency and money management, treating losses as an unavoidable business expense. By shifting your mindset to view the market as a structured environment rather than a chaotic one, you can focus on positive expectancy—ensuring that your process is sound enough to win over a long enough timeline, even when individual trades fail.

---


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3t3uytTBCk
(9 years ago, 8.41 minutes)

[lotora]

If you’re 21 and thinking “shot before a normal job”, I’d be careful with that framing.

This is not easy money.
It’s hard, and most people lose, especially if they try to force it as income from day 1.

The “only 5% make money” line gets used wrong.
Even if it’s true, it doesn’t mean you personally have a 5% chance.
It just means it’s not plug and play, and you need a real edge plus discipline plus proper record keeping.

If you want a sensible start, keep stakes tiny, pick one simple repeatable setup, and log every trade.
Treat it like a hobby budget, not a career plan.

Courses are mostly noise too.
Nobody sells you an edge.

And the Peter Webb pile-on feels misplaced.
If someone loses money, that’s usually no edge, bad risk control, or unrealistic expectations.

If you don’t enjoy it, do something else.
Life’s too short to force a hobby you don’t even like.

[ruthlessimon]

Betfair’s a lottery ticket. And should be treated as such.

Most shouldn’t play; and most wouldn’t if they truly knew the maths.

But if it’s a small slice of your net worth, it won’t break you.

[LinusP]

viewtopic.php?t=26759

Start your career and do this in your spare time, if you have the skills and passion to make it work you will have options. A 1/2 year gap after university is not a good sign and you will be missing the most important time in your career.

[jamesedwards]

Betfair’s a lottery ticket. And should be treated as such.

Most shouldn’t play; and most wouldn’t if they truly knew the maths.

But if it’s a small slice of your net worth, it won’t break you.

Betfair exchange is like a huge fruit machine set to pay out at 99%.

If you play at average level for long enough then you will still eventually lose your shirt. But no other gambling framework offers a starting point this close to profitability. Plus the tools and wherewithal are out there to help you. You only need to shift the odds >1% in your favour to turn it from money pit into money tree. That's the hard part but the rewards are great if you succeed.

[ShaunWhite]

You only need to shift the odds >1% in your favour.

Plus the commission. 2% only if you have a 100% strike rate, but it's more as a proportion of gross as that SR reduces to normal win rates. It's the constant erosion by commission that's hard to get over, especially as you're turning your money over so many times a day.

Say you lose 4000 and win 5000 through the day, £100 commission on that 5000, that's 10% gone from your 1000 gross which is a hell of a rake, day in day out.

[ruthlessimon]

Betfair exchange is like a huge fruit machine set to pay out at 99%.

You only need to shift the odds >1% in your favour to turn it from money pit into money tree.

no other gambling framework offers a starting point this close to profitability

It’s a brilliant analogy, and I fully agree. But that 1% shift is not a trivial crossover.

I would push back on the framework point though. Matched betting, arbitrage, and casino offers have a mathematical edge, as opposed to a skill-based edge (assuming the OP didn’t already rinse this at uni ).

Rinse the bookies first, then think about trading.

[jamesedwards]

You only need to shift the odds >1% in your favour.

Plus the commission. 2% only if you have a 100% strike rate, but it's more as a proportion of gross as that SR reduces to normal win rates. It's the constant erosion by commission that's hard to get over, especially as you're turning your money over so many times a day.

Say you lose 4000 and win 5000 through the day, £100 commission on that 5000, that's 10% gone from your 1000 gross which is a hell of a rake, day in day out.

The 1% is the commission.

£100 staked 10 times on 10 coin tosses. 5 wins and 5 losses. Total staked = £1000. Total commission paid = £10 or 1%.

But yes, youre right. To beat the commission you need to increase winnings by 2%, so it is even harder.

The spread should be easily beatable. The commission is the difficult bit.

[jamesedwards]

Betfair exchange is like a huge fruit machine set to pay out at 99%.

You only need to shift the odds >1% in your favour to turn it from money pit into money tree.

no other gambling framework offers a starting point this close to profitability

It’s a brilliant analogy, and I fully agree. But that 1% shift is not a trivial crossover.

I would push back on the framework point though. Matched betting, arbitrage, and casino offers have a mathematical edge, as opposed to a skill-based edge (assuming the OP didn’t already rinse this at uni ).

Rinse the bookies first, then think about trading.

In my mind these are long dead. They're certainly not scalable unless I'm missing a big trick?

[ShaunWhite]

You only need to shift the odds >1% in your favour.

Plus the commission. 2% only if you have a 100% strike rate, but it's more as a proportion of gross as that SR reduces to normal win rates. It's the constant erosion by commission that's hard to get over, especially as you're turning your money over so many times a day.

Say you lose 4000 and win 5000 through the day, £100 commission on that 5000, that's 10% gone from your 1000 gross which is a hell of a rake, day in day out.

The 1% is the commission.

£100 staked 10 times on 10 coin tosses. 5 wins and 5 losses. Total staked = £1000. Total commission paid = £10 or 1%.

The spread should be easily beatable. The commission is the difficult bit.

I calculate my commision vs gross return not vs stake.

£100 paid on £1000 gross definitely feels like 10%

[ruthlessimon]

In my mind these are long dead. They're certainly not scalable unless I'm missing a big trick?

Average Joe is more likely to make money off a £10 free bet than attempting to "trade" the 14:30 at Kempton in-play using "Trader Carl’s" £400 course.

Small EV > no EV

[ShaunWhite]

In my mind these are long dead. They're certainly not scalable unless I'm missing a big trick?

Average Joe is more likely to make money off a £10 free bet than attempting to "trade" the 14:30 at Kempton in-play using "Trader Carl’s" £400 course.

Small EV > no EV

Are those comparable? A free bet vs trying to do something requiring ability they don't have?

It's just regular risk:return. Pick up a small no risk amount, or spend time and money instead with a %age chance of picking up much larger amounts, or nothing. Bank savings account vs Crypto or other assets.