Value Bet Method - Both Profited?!

[JustLukeYou]

I watched a video on YouTube that explained a simple way to find value.

With semi-pro football find a betting company offering odds more than half way between the buy and sell on Betfair

For example. Over 2.5 goals is 2 at SkyBet. BetFair is 1.8 Buy and 2.1 Sell. The halfway point is 1.95. So the bet from SkyBet has value.

The problem was I couldn't find any like this. So I used Smarkets to work alongside BetFair.

I found two matches where the Under 1.5 with SkyBet was more than half the gap between a combination of BetFair and Smarkets.

And they have both won!

Barry Town v Colwyn Bay was 1 goal.
Radcliffe Borough v Kings Lynn was 1 goal.

So both bets won.

Now of course the value doesn't mean that they were guaranteed to win. But on Smarkets people were backing both matches to finish less than 1 goal much lower than the odds from SkyBet or BetFair.

I only put 20p on each. Both finished 0-1 and both odds were 4.33.

Kinda freaky.

Barry Town started at 2.30. Radcliffe has just finished 60 seconds ago.

[jamesedwards]

I watched a video on YouTube that explained a simple way to find value.

With semi-pro football find a betting company offering odds more than half way between the buy and sell on Betfair

For example. Over 2.5 goals is 2 at SkyBet. BetFair is 1.8 Buy and 2.1 Sell. The halfway point is 1.95. So the bet from SkyBet has value.

The assumption that the true odds of an event occurring is half way between back and lay prices on Betfair is significantly flawed. It will usually (but not always) be somewhere between those two points but it could just as easily be one tick inside of the best lay price as it could be bang in the middle between the two.

[JustLukeYou]

What I don't understand is why people are betting on Smarkets much lower than they can get with SkyBet or BetFair