Gambler's Fallacy again, looking for a succinct explanation of a variant of Martingale

[Acheron]

Forget psychology and you forget that irrationality is what we do best.

*Less cryptically, if you disregard the psychological challenge succinctly described by the OP then you're looking past the problem here, not solving it. The non-rational part of the brain tends to come first!

[ShaunWhite]

Shaun White (c.1972–TBC): Correctly identifies Martingale as a pile of crap.

It's 1964 - TBC unfortunately.

In UK horse racing, significant losing streaks for favourites are common, with data suggesting losing runs for clear favourites reaching up to 33, or up to 41 when including joint and co-favourites, particularly in National Hunt racing.


2 ^ 33 = 8,589,934,592
To win £1

[silentdiver]

Shaun White (c.1972–TBC): Correctly identifies Martingale as a pile of crap.

[silentdiver]

List of notable people who have studied gambling probability and discounted the concept of a Martingale...

That's such a great list, thank you !

I think I'll make a component in the web app to display it verbatim; and when a strategy is set up that is verging too much on the martingale, it can pop the display up at the bottom.

The system I'm building has a very flexible open-ended / programmable-ish set of functions, which can be combined to make all sorts of things happen, including martingale-ish behaviour. There are already a few 'Hmm, that might go horribly wrong'-type nudge messages that appear along those lines, so the above will be a great addition.

May I ask, is that LLM output or from your own knowledge/research ? - no disrespect to you intended at all, but if it's the former I ought to check it didn't just make the lot up !