Tennis article

tommyc333
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Yeah, from what I can see it only affects the strike rate by a very small amount.

The obvious thing missing from the article of course is the actual available price at the point of entry. He says something like 'it snaps back to near the pre match price'.

From my data, I think there would been four qualifiers today (including the ranking filter). For this tiny sample this is what the pre match and one set all prices were.
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Euler
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As promised I've started wiring up a tool to let me interrogate matches en masse. If anybody wants to ping across to me the starting state that they want to look at, I can give you the chance of something happening and so on. Fire away!
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Acheron
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Euler wrote:
Thu May 21, 2026 7:35 pm
As promised I've started wiring up a tool to let me interrogate matches en masse. If anybody wants to ping across to me the starting state that they want to look at, I can give you the chance of something happening and so on. Fire away!
I'd first try to replicate his findings by following his method as closely as possible, just to see if he's up to snuff.
sniffer66
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If I was looking I'd backtest usinig a grid search on a range of parameters and find the best using Sharpe etc. Is that a possibility Peter ?
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Euler
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sniffer66 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2026 12:33 pm
If I was looking I'd backtest usinig a grid search on a range of parameters and find the best using Sharpe etc. Is that a possibility Peter ?
It is possible, but that it's not where I'm focused at the moment. I'm just focused on looking at specific scenarios.

If I can sanity check that and keep on working on those specific scenarios to look for any potential errors in the wiring, then I'll move it to be a lot broader.
sniffer66
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Euler wrote:
Fri May 22, 2026 2:13 pm
sniffer66 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2026 12:33 pm
If I was looking I'd backtest usinig a grid search on a range of parameters and find the best using Sharpe etc. Is that a possibility Peter ?
It is possible that it's not where I'm focused at the moment. I'm just focused on looking at specific scenarios.

If I can sanity check that and keep on working on those specific scenarios to look for any potential errors in the wiring, then I'll move it to be a lot broader.
I need to get myself some tennis data. I used to have loads but for some odd reason I binned it
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Euler
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Tennis abstract has lots of data if you haven't collected any but obviously as we're coming into peak season for tennis now, you should be able to accumulate a lot using Bet Angel.

The biggest problem that I'm having, that you will have as well, is that as you wire up and create the logic, you start to find all sorts of errors and misinterpretations that you have to error trap before you can become confident that it's outputting the correct results. That seems to be the hardest bit.

I've actually written a whole set of logic to spot errors so that I can focus on that more than the actual outputted data itself. Once I'm confident that I'm spotting all errors and the data is clean and the output is clean, then I'll be able to post up some results.

I must admit I'm half expecting it to say that the market's pretty efficient.
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Euler
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Coding is 1% inspiration, 99% debugging.
sniffer66
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Euler wrote:
Fri May 22, 2026 2:18 pm
Coding is 1% inspiration, 99% debugging.
Tell me about it.

Just working on getting data now. Will share if I see anything worthwhile also
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