SKY Soccer Saturday Super 6

[ruthlessimon]

“Fabio Artuso each-way please"

[Euler]

I'm thinking I should be much higher odds. I need to throw in a few exceptional results and/or the others some really weird predictions to nab it at the last.

[ruthlessimon]

Definitely some opportunities in this market. Expect extreme volatility at 16:01.

Is Jason gonna throw in a 1-1 somewhere?

[ruthlessimon]

Big moves!

Hill goes safe, maybe too safe.... No 1-1s from Jason. 2-1s, 3-1s everywhere!!

[Euler]

A right old mixture of forecasts in there today so this really is going to go to the last few minutes.

[Euler]

I asked AI to have a look and give us a summary of how either player can win.

Minimum outcome for each to win (versus Andrew’s score tally)

Andrew (461) is already 2, 4 and 7 ahead, so he wins unless Jason gets 1 extra exact score swing, David gets 2 extra exact score swings, or Peter gets 3 extra exact score swings.
Jason (459) needs at least +3 on Andrew, so he needs to beat Andrew by at least one net exact score swing.
David (457) needs at least +6 on Andrew, so he needs to beat Andrew by at least two net exact score swings.
Peter (454) needs at least +9 on Andrew, so he needs to beat Andrew by at least three net exact score swings.
Where those swings can happen

These are the matches where each challenger has a different score forecast to Andrew. Each one landing gives the challenger +3 relative to Andrew; each one landing exactly as Andrew forecast gives Andrew +3 relative to that challenger.

Jason: Palace v Arsenal, West Ham v Leeds, Spurs v Everton, Liverpool v Brentford, Brighton v Man Utd (Man City v Aston Villa is identical, so no swing is possible there).
David: Palace v Arsenal, Man City v Aston Villa, West Ham v Leeds, Liverpool v Brentford, Brighton v Man Utd (Spurs v Everton is identical).
Peter: Palace v Arsenal, Man City v Aston Villa, West Ham v Leeds, Liverpool v Brentford, Brighton v Man Utd (Spurs v Everton is identical).

In short, the challengers need enough of their differing score forecasts to land exactly, while also avoiding Andrew landing his 1 nil forecasts in those same matches, to generate the required number of 3 point swings.

[Euler]

Crystal Palace v Arsenal

Andrew: 0 2
Jason: 1 2
David: 1 2
Peter: 0 1

Man City v Aston Villa

Andrew: 2 0
Jason: 2 0
David: 3 1
Peter: 2 1

West Ham v Leeds

Andrew: 1 0
Jason: 2 1
David: 2 1
Peter: 2 1

Spurs v Everton

Andrew: 1 0
Jason: 3 1
David: 1 0
Peter: 1 0

Liverpool v Brentford

Andrew: 1 0
Jason: 2 1
David: 2 1
Peter: 2 1

Brighton v Man Utd

Andrew: 1 0
Jason: 2 1
David: 2 1
Peter: 2 1

[ruthlessimon]

Liverpool finish 1-1, Andrew can breathe. Yikes that was close

[Euler]

Should have been 2-1 really as well. What an incredible finish to the S6 season!