French Open 2026 Roland Garros
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JuiceyJones
- Posts: 224
- Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:00 pm
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JuiceyJones
- Posts: 224
- Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:00 pm
Zverev looking a bit dicey so far 1st set. I really hope this isn't Jodar's max level and he completely falls off next set.
To add to this, there's a £4358 cap in-play as well. Strange
Yeah pretty odd. At first I thought maybe it might have been something to do with my staking settings on Betangel but it wasn't (low likelihood in the first place as I never touch it).
I hope exchanges aren't beta-testing bookies practices here lol
whoopsDiana Shnaider was at odds of 230 at Sets 0-1 | Games 1-4 | Points 15-30 | receiving. Another 1.01 gubbed at the French Open, this time Sabalenka crashes out of the tournament.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 5818
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
A question for the galaxy brains
So, I feel Mensik is somewhat mispriced going forward in Roland Garros. Let’s assume the market is pricing Zverev correctly here in his upcoming match vs Mensik at 80% chance of winning (In reality, this is very unlikely correct IMO given his tendency to freeze up when deep into Grand Slams, whilst Mensik has already shown a tendency to’ ice up’ and relish big moments. Albeit stamina/cramping is another issue)
Anyways, I captured a bit of Mensik at ca. 9.80 yesterday in the outright. His odds vs Zverev in the semis are 4.7, which prices Mensik at roughly evens should he get through to the final. I don’t see Mensik being anything less than a 60/40 favourite against any of his potential opponents in the final: Arnaldi, Berrettini, Cobolli or Aliassime. Being fairly confident market will reconcile with this view closer to the time. How do I express this trade?
Currently in the progress of hedging it by backing Zverev directly (orders still to be filled), so in the event Zverev wins, I will recover my stake on Mensik in the outright in theory (there’s probably a sub 1% chance Mensik retires before the 1st set is over, in which case I won’t win the Zverev match bet/recover Mensik outright stake).
Is there a better way to capture this perceived value in the final??
So, I feel Mensik is somewhat mispriced going forward in Roland Garros. Let’s assume the market is pricing Zverev correctly here in his upcoming match vs Mensik at 80% chance of winning (In reality, this is very unlikely correct IMO given his tendency to freeze up when deep into Grand Slams, whilst Mensik has already shown a tendency to’ ice up’ and relish big moments. Albeit stamina/cramping is another issue)
Anyways, I captured a bit of Mensik at ca. 9.80 yesterday in the outright. His odds vs Zverev in the semis are 4.7, which prices Mensik at roughly evens should he get through to the final. I don’t see Mensik being anything less than a 60/40 favourite against any of his potential opponents in the final: Arnaldi, Berrettini, Cobolli or Aliassime. Being fairly confident market will reconcile with this view closer to the time. How do I express this trade?
Currently in the progress of hedging it by backing Zverev directly (orders still to be filled), so in the event Zverev wins, I will recover my stake on Mensik in the outright in theory (there’s probably a sub 1% chance Mensik retires before the 1st set is over, in which case I won’t win the Zverev match bet/recover Mensik outright stake).
Is there a better way to capture this perceived value in the final??
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