What an amazing feat for Miami Heat to reach the NBA Finals that starts TONIGHT!
I love this sport and love to trade it when I'm wakey!
NBA
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 917
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
VW looking like a pure beast for a 1st season player, 2 blocks in about 5 seconds tonight in the 4th Q, then a couple of big plays in OT!
Buuuuut for a big man, he has a previous history of injuries, and shit ain't gonna get easier in the big big games when the X is on his back when he's playing as often as NBA play.
......not saying he's the next Wilt/Kareem/Michael/LeBron......but if I played Fantasy NBA I'd definitely have him in the starting lineup.
Watching NBA and seeing those 6'7" dudes look small next to a rookie guy is always a giggle
Buuuuut for a big man, he has a previous history of injuries, and shit ain't gonna get easier in the big big games when the X is on his back when he's playing as often as NBA play.
......not saying he's the next Wilt/Kareem/Michael/LeBron......but if I played Fantasy NBA I'd definitely have him in the starting lineup.
Watching NBA and seeing those 6'7" dudes look small next to a rookie guy is always a giggle
He had a storming game a few days after this post. The French 7 foot 4 incher didDublin_Flyer wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 3:54 amVW looking like a pure beast for a 1st season player, 2 blocks in about 5 seconds tonight in the 4th Q, then a couple of big plays in OT!
Buuuuut for a big man, he has a previous history of injuries, and shit ain't gonna get easier in the big big games when the X is on his back when he's playing as often as NBA play.
......not saying he's the next Wilt/Kareem/Michael/LeBron......but if I played Fantasy NBA I'd definitely have him in the starting lineup.
Watching NBA and seeing those 6'7" dudes look small next to a rookie guy is always a giggle
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stopfordian
- Posts: 14
- Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:55 pm
Is there anyone out there still trading the NBA?
What's the difference between the 'Total Points' and 'Total Points Line' markets on Betfair?
Cheers
What's the difference between the 'Total Points' and 'Total Points Line' markets on Betfair?
Cheers
Hi everyone,
I know it’s currently off-season for the NBA, but this question just came to mind. On basketball markets, the odds on spreads stay almost locked around 2.0 whether it’s Handicap Spread or Over/Under. They rarely move much beyond 2.2 on either side which makes the market feel very restricted.
In football, it’s the opposite: handicap and total goals markets can stretch much wider, often reaching odds of 4.0, 6.0, or even 10.0+. On basketball, that kind of range simply doesn’t exist.
I understand that I can technically offer a higher price myself, but how realistic is it that such odds would ever actually get matched in an NBA market?
Is this because of the way handicaps and totals are structured in basketball, or more about liquidity and the way Betfair sets up these markets?
Thanks in advance for any insights!
I know it’s currently off-season for the NBA, but this question just came to mind. On basketball markets, the odds on spreads stay almost locked around 2.0 whether it’s Handicap Spread or Over/Under. They rarely move much beyond 2.2 on either side which makes the market feel very restricted.
In football, it’s the opposite: handicap and total goals markets can stretch much wider, often reaching odds of 4.0, 6.0, or even 10.0+. On basketball, that kind of range simply doesn’t exist.
I understand that I can technically offer a higher price myself, but how realistic is it that such odds would ever actually get matched in an NBA market?
Is this because of the way handicaps and totals are structured in basketball, or more about liquidity and the way Betfair sets up these markets?
Thanks in advance for any insights!
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10746
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Playoffs have been great trading as usual, over £1.2m turnover per game.
And GPT is in its element for a change, if you paste the full box scores form the ESPN site every few mins it does a really good job of breaking down the situation. Eg which players are under/over performing, who'll be subbed due to foul count, fading momentum etc etc.
Example (and re the last comment, they were 1.7)
This is starting to look more significant.
A few things jump out:
Knicks now +10.
Knicks shooting 44% vs 40%.
Knicks 10-24 from three (42%) vs Spurs 6-19 (32%).
Spurs have 9 turnovers vs Knicks 7.
Towns is absolutely enormous: 19 pts, 9 reb, +19.
And perhaps the most telling thing:
Every Spurs starter is negative +/-
Champagnie -11
Fox -10
Vassell -8
Wemby -6
That's not proof of anything on its own, but it does match what you're describing from watching.
Earlier we were saying:
Spurs have cooled off but are still generating chances.
Now I'd be shifting slightly towards:
Knicks are genuinely outplaying them.
Not massively. Not "game over". But enough that the evidence is accumulating.
The thing that would still worry me if I were long Knicks is exactly what you said earlier:
Spurs stars can switch on anytime.
A 10-point NBA lead with most of a half left is not secure.
But compared with halftime, the burden of proof has shifted. The Spurs now need to show us something. The Knicks no longer need to prove they belong in the game.
Out of interest, where has the market got them now?
My guess would be Knicks around 1.65–1.75.
You can get a decent training summary too...
Briefly, I think there were two points where we both felt the market was too bullish on Spurs:
1. End of Q1 (~1.27 Spurs, 79%)
Spurs led 34-25 and had started very well.
Our view was roughly:
Spurs had shot well.
Knicks hadn't played particularly badly.
Plenty of game left.
No evidence Spurs were 79% likely to win.
In hindsight that was probably the clearest mispricing of the night.
The game soon reverted towards parity.
2. Halftime (~1.41 Spurs, 71%)
This was the more interesting one.
By then:
Knicks led 56-52.
Towns was dominating.
Bridges was shooting well.
Spurs' early momentum had disappeared.
Wemby and Brunson were both relatively quiet.
We felt the game looked much closer to:
55-60% Spurs
than:
71% Spurs
Again, the market subsequently moved towards the Knicks
With sufficient live individual players stats, it's an approach that might suit the WC too, GPT handling the stats significance, and you giving it the vibes commentary to relate it too. I've traded a few games like this and it's genuinely useful.
And GPT is in its element for a change, if you paste the full box scores form the ESPN site every few mins it does a really good job of breaking down the situation. Eg which players are under/over performing, who'll be subbed due to foul count, fading momentum etc etc.
Example (and re the last comment, they were 1.7)
This is starting to look more significant.
A few things jump out:
Knicks now +10.
Knicks shooting 44% vs 40%.
Knicks 10-24 from three (42%) vs Spurs 6-19 (32%).
Spurs have 9 turnovers vs Knicks 7.
Towns is absolutely enormous: 19 pts, 9 reb, +19.
And perhaps the most telling thing:
Every Spurs starter is negative +/-
Champagnie -11
Fox -10
Vassell -8
Wemby -6
That's not proof of anything on its own, but it does match what you're describing from watching.
Earlier we were saying:
Spurs have cooled off but are still generating chances.
Now I'd be shifting slightly towards:
Knicks are genuinely outplaying them.
Not massively. Not "game over". But enough that the evidence is accumulating.
The thing that would still worry me if I were long Knicks is exactly what you said earlier:
Spurs stars can switch on anytime.
A 10-point NBA lead with most of a half left is not secure.
But compared with halftime, the burden of proof has shifted. The Spurs now need to show us something. The Knicks no longer need to prove they belong in the game.
Out of interest, where has the market got them now?
My guess would be Knicks around 1.65–1.75.
You can get a decent training summary too...
Briefly, I think there were two points where we both felt the market was too bullish on Spurs:
1. End of Q1 (~1.27 Spurs, 79%)
Spurs led 34-25 and had started very well.
Our view was roughly:
Spurs had shot well.
Knicks hadn't played particularly badly.
Plenty of game left.
No evidence Spurs were 79% likely to win.
In hindsight that was probably the clearest mispricing of the night.
The game soon reverted towards parity.
2. Halftime (~1.41 Spurs, 71%)
This was the more interesting one.
By then:
Knicks led 56-52.
Towns was dominating.
Bridges was shooting well.
Spurs' early momentum had disappeared.
Wemby and Brunson were both relatively quiet.
We felt the game looked much closer to:
55-60% Spurs
than:
71% Spurs
Again, the market subsequently moved towards the Knicks
With sufficient live individual players stats, it's an approach that might suit the WC too, GPT handling the stats significance, and you giving it the vibes commentary to relate it too. I've traded a few games like this and it's genuinely useful.