ok as you all know i have quit betting/trading some time ago. But World cup made me start betting again.. Here's my journey so far. I think i am going to stop here as i generally dont do well with play offs.
Its 90% straight bet and 10% trading.
Its really nothing to brag about, very mediocre results. But i just feel like sharing my results.
I used elo rating from FIFA ranking and skewed it using match stats to get the implied probability.
The reason why i dont use the more common poisson distribution is because poisson assumes that the chances of goals is constant all the time, that might be true for league but its definitely not true for tournaments.
During the old days i have to spend hours writing python code to do the calculations. These days all it takes is LLM, you just need to tell it what you want to do with the data, and its all done within a minute. God damn! i am now seriously worried LLM will take my job.
Code: Select all
| Date | Game | Bet | P/L (pts) |
|------------|------------------------------|----------------------------|-----------|
| 12/6/2026 | Mexico v South Africa | back mexico | 4.6 |
| 12/6/2026 | South Korea v Czechia | back draw | -4 |
| 13/6/2026 | Canada v Bosnia | lay canada | 2 |
| 14/6/2026 | Qatar v Switzerland | back swtizerland -1.5 | -5 |
| 14/6/2026 | Australia v Türkiye | back o2.5 goals | -4 |
| 19/6/2026 | Mexico v South Korea | lay leading team | -1.1 |
| 20/6/2026 | Turkey vs Paraguay | back Turkey | -3 |
| 20/6/2026 | USA vs Australia | back USA | 6.34 |
| 21/6/2026 | Netherlands v Sweden | back u2.5 | -4.61 |
| 24/6/2026 | South Africa v South Korea | back korea | -10 |
| 25/6/2026 | Switzerland v Canada | back switzerland | 16 |
| 25/6/2026 | Bosnia v Qatar | back bosnia | 4 |
| 25/6/2026 | Scotland v Brazil | back brazil | 3.5 |
| 26/6/2026 | Japan vs Sweden | back Japan | -5 |
| 26/6/2026 | Ecuador vs Germany | back Germany | -5 |
| 26/6/2026 | Paraguay v Australia | lay HT draw | -2 |
| 26/6/2026 | Paraguay v Australia | LTD @ 85 min | -2 |
| 27/6/2026 | Türkiye v USA | LTD @ 80 min | 10 |
| 27/6/2026 | Norway v France | back france | 4.3 |
| 27/6/2026 | Uruguay v Spain | back spain | 7.2 |
| 27/6/2026 | Senegal v Iraq | iraq + 2 | -10 |
| 28/6/2026 | Croatia v Ghana | back croatia -0.5 | 5.7 |
| 28/6/2026 | Jordan v Argentina | back argentina | 1.8 |