'I understand that our German friends have not understood what the rating agency Fitch has said. What they said was the triple A rating of France is stable - maybe that translation has not crossed the Rhine river.'
Jeff
Eurozone debt crisis
Sarkozy decides to forgo diplomatic nicities when talking about his differences with the Germans:
'I understand that our German friends have not understood what the rating agency Fitch has said. What they said was the triple A rating of France is stable - maybe that translation has not crossed the Rhine river.'
Jeff
'I understand that our German friends have not understood what the rating agency Fitch has said. What they said was the triple A rating of France is stable - maybe that translation has not crossed the Rhine river.'
Jeff
German bond auction 'disaster' rocks markets - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... rkets.html
You have to wonder how long it will be before the markets start demanding higher interest rates from the UK and the US...
Jeff
You have to wonder how long it will be before the markets start demanding higher interest rates from the UK and the US...
Jeff
I think it needs a real full blown crisis to solve this now and force politicians into action. They are just too slow and don't grasp the enormity of the issue. They may end up making some bad choices but, IMHO, it's better than no decisions or action at all. Because they didn't bazooka the problem to start with it's going to be tough to stop the rot now. It has become a self re-inforcing problem now.
It's madness to follow a martingale betting strategy in Europe
"The wise person's reaction to the casino is not to go there; if you do, leave while you are ahead, and if you cannot do so, accept a small loss, writes John Kay"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0fd87462-14fe ... abdc0.html
I met John Kay once at a talk at the RSA and kept in touch with his work. Most of which makes a lot of sense to me.
"The wise person's reaction to the casino is not to go there; if you do, leave while you are ahead, and if you cannot do so, accept a small loss, writes John Kay"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0fd87462-14fe ... abdc0.html
I met John Kay once at a talk at the RSA and kept in touch with his work. Most of which makes a lot of sense to me.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
link for non-ft subscribers (it gets round the paywall if entering thru google)Euler wrote:It's madness to follow a martingale betting strategy in Europe
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=It%27s ... channel=np
IMHO, it boils down to a choice of either 'kick the can down the road' or 'say that there will be no more bailouts and let the market do its worst'.
The latter is the better option IMHO, but no elected politician wants to tell their voters that millions of people will lose their jobs. Hopefully, by the time the ticking bomb goes off, they'll have left politics and be making a nice living on the lecture circuit, and it will be someone else's problem...
Jeff
The latter is the better option IMHO, but no elected politician wants to tell their voters that millions of people will lose their jobs. Hopefully, by the time the ticking bomb goes off, they'll have left politics and be making a nice living on the lecture circuit, and it will be someone else's problem...
Jeff
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
Like what action though Euler?Euler wrote:I think it needs a real full blown crisis to solve this now and force politicians into action. They are just too slow and don't grasp the enormity of the issue. They may end up making some bad choices but, IMHO, it's better than no decisions or action at all. Because they didn't bazooka the problem to start with it's going to be tough to stop the rot now. It has become a self re-inforcing problem now.
Germany underwrites Eurozone debts (politically unacceptable to Germany) or the ECB monetizes the debt (politically unacceptable to Germany and morally unacceptable to anyone with a conscience).
The Eurozone is fundamentally flawed, just like the ERM was, because it tries to subvert market forces - a tactic that ultimately always ends in failure.
European Bailout Time Of Death: EFSF Cut In Half Due To "Market Conditions"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european- ... conditions
From this morning's Telegraph:
€10bn of Italian six-month and 2-year bonds went on sale at 10.00 - and although Italy managed to sell the full targeted amount, its borrowing costs surged.
Yields on six month bills were 6.504pc, up from 3.535 at the end of October, the Bank of Italy said. That's a new euro-era record.
Yield on two-year zero coupons were 7.87pc - also a euro-era high - up 24 basis points today and up from 4.628pc at the end of October.
€10bn of Italian six-month and 2-year bonds went on sale at 10.00 - and although Italy managed to sell the full targeted amount, its borrowing costs surged.
Yields on six month bills were 6.504pc, up from 3.535 at the end of October, the Bank of Italy said. That's a new euro-era record.
Yield on two-year zero coupons were 7.87pc - also a euro-era high - up 24 basis points today and up from 4.628pc at the end of October.
It also says:
Italian 2-year bond yields - the cost of borrowing - have broken the 8pc barrier, now up 40 basis to 8.03pc, according to Reuters.
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) - the cost of insuring sovereign debt against default - have also risen to record highs.
German 5-year CDS rises 6 basis points to match a record high of 115 basis points - meaning it costs £115,000 to insure £10m of German debt.
Belgian 5-year CDS rises 13 basis points to a record high of 407 basis points.
Italian 2-year bond yields - the cost of borrowing - have broken the 8pc barrier, now up 40 basis to 8.03pc, according to Reuters.
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) - the cost of insuring sovereign debt against default - have also risen to record highs.
German 5-year CDS rises 6 basis points to match a record high of 115 basis points - meaning it costs £115,000 to insure £10m of German debt.
Belgian 5-year CDS rises 13 basis points to a record high of 407 basis points.
Interesting article by Robert Peston - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15889136
'So if you happen to be a money manager in Boston or Abu Dhabi or Singapore, looking after billions of dollars of other people's money, and you can't identify a lender of last resort to interconnected eurozone states and eurozone banks - you can't see who is going to bail out the currency union if it all goes horribly wrong - you may well think that increasing or even maintaining your exposure to the eurozone is something of a sucker bet.
Which is one reason why eurozone governments and banks are finding it harder and more expensive to borrow - and why, with all those debts falling due in 2012, eurozone leaders haven't got long to agree a credible rescue package, if they're to skirt default, banking meltdowns and eurozone fracture.'
Jeff
'So if you happen to be a money manager in Boston or Abu Dhabi or Singapore, looking after billions of dollars of other people's money, and you can't identify a lender of last resort to interconnected eurozone states and eurozone banks - you can't see who is going to bail out the currency union if it all goes horribly wrong - you may well think that increasing or even maintaining your exposure to the eurozone is something of a sucker bet.
Which is one reason why eurozone governments and banks are finding it harder and more expensive to borrow - and why, with all those debts falling due in 2012, eurozone leaders haven't got long to agree a credible rescue package, if they're to skirt default, banking meltdowns and eurozone fracture.'
Jeff
Italian borrowing costs reach new highs -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... highs.html
This is unsustainable - somethings gotta give...
Jeff
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... highs.html
This is unsustainable - somethings gotta give...
Jeff
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
This morning I had a look in the local business papers and half the news were around the euro's end. 
Apparently there are now just 10 days left in which to save the Euro: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15958461
Weren't we told '6 weeks to save the euro' a couple of months ago?
The eurozone needs to stop dithering and make some decisions! They are like the People's Front of Judea: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55fqjw2J ... e=youtu.be
Jeff
Weren't we told '6 weeks to save the euro' a couple of months ago?
The eurozone needs to stop dithering and make some decisions! They are like the People's Front of Judea: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55fqjw2J ... e=youtu.be
Jeff
CaerMyrddin wrote:This morning I had a look in the local business papers and half the news were around the euro's end.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
Labour once tried to tell us we had 24 hours to save the NHS.
I'm interested to see how the European Political map might change during these dark economic times.
I notice an incredible response to the YouTube video of the white woman abusing immigrants on a Croydon tram - 5 million views in a day.
Political history shows extremism rises to the surface during depression. Hitler becoming leader of the Weimar Republic being a perfect example. People are angry, worried, defensive, and frustrated during these times, and immigrants get the blame.
Like I say, I'm interested to see how European Politics may change over the next 5 years
I notice an incredible response to the YouTube video of the white woman abusing immigrants on a Croydon tram - 5 million views in a day.
Political history shows extremism rises to the surface during depression. Hitler becoming leader of the Weimar Republic being a perfect example. People are angry, worried, defensive, and frustrated during these times, and immigrants get the blame.
Like I say, I'm interested to see how European Politics may change over the next 5 years