Prediction markets - Kalshi and Polymarket

[megarain]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c052yv259jvo

The most amazing part to me was finding D4vd is a musician. Never heard of him/her.

[ShaunWhite]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c052yv259jvo

The most amazing part to me was finding D4vd is a musician. Never heard of him/her.

He allegedly kept an underage girl's body in the boot of his Tesla for weeks, and previously invited he over to see him. He's toast. Not suprised you haven't heard of him, he's one of those generic yank rappers who's nothing special. My revelation was finding out a boot at the front of a car gets called a 'frunk'

Fame Under Fire....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002x ... are-mobile

[Naffman]

Changing the selections mid event and manipulating Spotify streams - just another day at Kalshi. Seen there advertising boards everywhere at the WC too yet acting like a small startup satisfying its market makers.

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[Kai]

Surprising amount of negativity posted about pred markets

[JuiceyJones]

Surprising amount of negativity posted about pred markets

I think its warranted. The only reason you don't hear more is because they are literally paying everyone (including POTUS son). Here's another story: https://www.wsj.com/business/media/we-i ... bled=false

I think the list of people/companies receiving money from them is telling:

Kalshi (Partnerships & Sponsorships)
• CNN: Exclusive on-air data integration partner featuring real-time odds tickers.
• Harry Enten: CNN Chief Data Analyst who explicitly highlights Kalshi numbers on-air.
• CNBC: Exclusive multi-year financial news integration partner with dedicated custom on-platform pages.
• Google & Google Finance: Native integration provider displaying live forecast data directly in search widgets.
• Argentina Football Association (AFA): Official national soccer team sponsor for major tournament activations.
• Lionel Messi / Rodrigo De Paul / Nicolás Otamendi: Paid individual brand endorsers under the AFA umbrella.
• Pro Padel League (PPL): Multi-year league sponsor featuring court-side and broadcast branding.
• Andrew Schulz: Comedian and paid brand ambassador for sports-market promotional content.
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: NBA superstar signed to a personal promotional endorsement deal.
• Bryson DeChambeau: Professional golfer paid for direct brand sponsorships during majors.
• José Mourinho: High-profile football manager paid to front international marketing campaigns.
• Donald Trump Jr.: Onboarded as a strategic adviser to navigate government affairs.
• Genius Sports: Official sports data supplier hired to feed real-time match data.
• Meta (Threads): Social media platform partner hosting embedded native market widgets.
• Coalition for Prediction Markets: Political lobbying arm co-funded alongside Coinbase, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Underdog.
Polymarket (Partnerships & Sponsorships)
• Yahoo Finance: Mainstream business media partner hosting a dedicated "prediction markets hub".
• X (formerly Twitter): Official prediction market partner natively embedding platform probabilities into user timelines.
• Google & Google Finance: Native search provider hosting live data widgets alongside stock feeds.
• Donald Trump Jr.: Appointed to the platform's official corporate advisory board.
• 1789 Capital: Investment firm (partnered by Trump Jr.) heavily backing and financing the platform's scaling.
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): NYSE owner that invested billions and serves as a global distributor of their market data.
• Splash Sports: Pool-betting partner where Polymarket acts as the primary title sponsor for a $21 million survivor contest.
• Sportradar: Major data syndicate hired to settle live, in-play sports forecasting contracts.
• Nate Silver: Famed statistician hired as a direct internal platform adviser.
• Major League Soccer (MLS): Historical commercial partner used to launch early sports-prediction testing.

[Euler]

Surprising amount of negativity posted about pred markets

They are a bit of a wild west.

I think the curious thing is that people are piling into these markets, but your chance of a payoff is much smaller than you get on a betting exchange because of the high transaction costs. Look at a low commission rate on a prediction market and think, "Well, that's great, but it's not comparable to Betfair because you're paying it per individual trade that you do, not on the outcome of the market."

[northbound]

Surprising amount of negativity posted about pred markets

but your chance of a payoff is much smaller than you get on a betting exchange because of the high transaction costs

True, but only if you take an available price.

If instead you're a market maker on Polymarket (offering a price and getting filled) then you pay zero commission and also receive rebates at the end of the day.

[Euler]

Are the rebates listed publicly, or is this something that is done on a deal-by-deal basis?

[northbound]

Are the rebates listed publicly, or is this something that is done on a deal-by-deal basis?

This is for Polymarket only.

Maker rebates are listed publicly.

Anyone with enough traded volume (sum of their filled limit orders) to generate 1+ USDC in rebates by the end of each day, gets them credited to their account early the next day.

The challenge is that there aren't many takers, so you have to be very selective with your entry spots.

[Kai]

Surprising amount of negativity posted about pred markets

I think its warranted. The only reason you don't hear more is because they are literally paying everyone (including POTUS son). Here's another story: https://www.wsj.com/business/media/we-i ... bled=false

I don't actually mind the negative noise around the market (factual or no), the more the merrier... a lot of the above can be viewed as a 'positive' in terms of platform growth and the trader's bottom line (and ofc, science/data shows negative articles are twice as likely to get shared due to our innate negativity bias etc so sentiment is always skewed)

I'm just a bit puzzled to see such a massive topic lie dormant here for several months, only to resurface with exclusively negative remarks

One last thing I'll say on this topic is that, IMHO, we cannot outsource our own due diligence, no matter how established or busy we are in other markets

[megarain]

Polymarket growth is impressive, but not stunning in actual terms.

The tournament in Qatar saw $138k traded in the whole event.

4 years later, so far $1.6 Billion has been traded - which does sound a big number - thou actual match turnover in the group stage is roughly $8m-$15m, not too dissimilar to Betfair.

There are global feeds within the betting delay limits.

USA bettors don’t really appear to be engaged in the sport - thou it does appear to be very well attended - average of 65k attending per game at 99.7% occupancy. Beer, water and pizza apparently selling v well.