Value betting & Dutching

[salviemia]

Hi everyone,

I'd appreciate some opinions and advice on outright betting, value, and dutching.

Question 1 – Value betting

Let's say I'm looking at a horse race and I identify a horse at 10/1 that I believe is significantly overpriced and represents great value.

If my assessment is correct, does that automatically imply that the favourite is underpriced and therefore offers little or no value? In other words, if I've found value elsewhere in the market, is it reasonable to view the favourite as a potential lay bet, or can both the favourite and the outsider still represent value at the same time?

Question 2 – Dutching strategy

I've become fairly confident at finding outsiders and dutching selections, but I'd like to develop a more consistent long-term strategy.

One thing I'm unsure about is how many selections I should include in a dutch. Sometimes I narrow a race down to three horses, while in other races I may have five or six.

Should I:

Limit myself to a maximum number of selections in each race?
Aim to cover only a certain percentage of the book?
Focus on maintaining a stake-to-potential-return ratio?
Or simply back any runners that I believe represent value, regardless of how many there are?

When dutching, is it generally better to

Stake to a fixed target profit if any selection wins?

My goal is to determine whether my approach can be profitable over a large sample of bets, so I'm trying to build a disciplined strategy rather than just relying on instinct.

I'd be interested to hear how experienced dutchers approach this and what has worked for you over the long term.

Many thanks