Mad Bomber??

steven1976 · Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:31 pm

Maybe hes on a winning streak and betfairs taking 60%!

steven1976 · Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:56 pm

If its true physco, I guess it would kick into touch the theory that he is a mad man just trying to get matxhed at whatever odds they can. More likely someone manipulating a market. in my opinion, and on a much smaller scale its easier to see on the ausy racing what they are doing pushing the market around. Just need to scale it up and you see the same as you do on the uk markets in the off season.

psycho040253 · Thu Dec 01, 2011 7:59 pm

Yesterday, he was bombing a number of favourites on Betdaq.

Psycho

Mr Undercover · Thu Dec 01, 2011 8:41 pm

Was it the same pattern: entering the market with multiples of 25k, waits for 30-60s and then flattens the market down until he exhausts all his funds ?

psycho040253 · Fri Dec 02, 2011 11:09 am

Mr Undercover wrote:Was it the same pattern: entering the market with multiples of 25k, waits for 30-60s and then flattens the market down until he exhausts all his funds ?

Mr Undercover

I'm not a trader. I'm a layer. I lay favourites blind just after the off. I use Mean Reversion to enter and exit my system. I understand only the very basics of trading - and that's all. On Tuesday, my system got over heated so Wednesday was a system switch off day. However, Mean Reversion dictates that I still monitor the races that I would have bet had the system been switched on.

On the first race that I would have bet, I noticed that most of the betting activity was on the non-favourites. About 5 mins before the off, the odds of the favourite started to yo-yo. A few seconds later, £2k of lay money appeared for the favourite. I assumed that it was placed at 3 or 4 pips below the highest backing odds. The £2k really stood out because the money waiting on the other odds was < £100. £2k ain't a lot in Betfair terms. But, it is in Betdaq terms.

It looked as though the money was left on and waited to be matched.

In running, it looked to be game over for the Betdaq Bomber because the odds on the favourite went down to about 1.3-ish. However, very late on, the odds began to rise and the favourite lost.

This happened on 3 other races that I monitored that day. Whether it happened on other races that day, I can't say because I didn't monitor them.

What was odd was that, had my system been switched on, I would have layed the favourites in those races.

Either the Betdaq Bomber was bl00dy lucky or he knew exactly what he was doing. Which, I can't say for sure. However, given the reliability of my system, even without Mean Reversion, I'd venture to say that the Betdaq Bomber knows what he's doing.

Psycho

Euler · Fri Dec 02, 2011 11:22 am

Different situation on Betdaq as Betdaq have 90% of the on course bookmaker market. If I saw this on Betdaq I would assume it is a bookmaker.

psycho040253 · Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:17 pm

Euler wrote:Different situation on Betdaq as Betdaq have 90% of the on course bookmaker market. If I saw this on Betdaq I would assume it is a bookmaker.

Cheers Euler

Laying off liability or laying because they know it's gonna lose?

Psycho

andyfuller · Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:52 pm

Welcome back Bomber

hgodden · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:03 pm

Lovely.

I turned away from the fav then at Southwell 3.00 Gorgeous Goblin after his bomb had been used up.... but later I saw it had gone down again... did he rebomb? (i.e. was he using more than one stake?)

andyfuller · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:04 pm

Not that I posted it here but I was talking to a fellow trader on the 9th December and we both agreed we would see him soon as a regular indicator he was going to appear soon happened.

hgodden · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:12 pm

andyfuller wrote:Not that I posted it here but I was talking to a fellow trader on the 9th December and we both agreed we would see him soon as a regular indicator he was going to appear soon happened.

Full moon?

mcfc1981 · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:16 pm

yeh he rebombed must have had at least 50k on the fav,
another fav down for him

jimrobo · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:29 pm

actually I'm interested in what it was andy too!

andyfuller · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:35 pm

I have mentioned it before on this thread. It was the flashing that happened but went unreported on here.

andyfuller · Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:41 pm

I suspect most people didn't even notice the flashing, it was most evident at Cheltenham btw.

We may be adding 2+2 and getting 5 but we are confident enough that it acts as a good indicator to expect him soon as we have seen it far too often to just be coincidence in the last 3 years in our opinion.

Mad Bomber??

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