I've been working on an in-running strategy and would appreciate some feedback from those with experience using the Bet Angel Risk Meter.
My hypothesis is as follows:
* The pre-race market has a **low (green) Risk Meter**, indicating a stable market with relatively orderly price discovery.
* The horse starts as one of the market principals (for example, BSP below 10.0).
* The horse then drifts significantly in-running (for example, to 20.0 or higher) after around 50% of the race has been completed.
My reasoning is that a green Risk Meter suggests the pre-race market had a relatively strong consensus about each horse's chances. If that's true, then once the race is underway, a substantial in-running drift is more likely to represent new information from the race itself (position, pace, travelling, etc.) rather than unresolved pre-race uncertainty.
In other words, I'm wondering whether:
> **Given a stable pre-race market, does a significant in-running drift have greater predictive value than the same drift occurring in a more volatile pre-race market?**
I'm **not** suggesting the outcome is certain, only that the conditional probability of the horse eventually losing may be higher when the pre-race market has been stable.
Has anyone:
* Back tested something similar?
* Compared green vs amber/red Risk Meter markets?
* Found that the Risk Meter adds predictive value once the in-running price is already known?
# Does a Low Bet Angel Risk Meter Improve the Reliability of In-Running Drifts?
Never used the Risk meter, but its an interesting angle.
Correlation between pre-race and in-run markets is something I do trade - but only given certain characteristics.
You might be able to rig something using TPD output.
Correlation between pre-race and in-run markets is something I do trade - but only given certain characteristics.
You might be able to rig something using TPD output.