Opinions on TPD - is it worthwhile?

[Dave64]

For automation, I’d keep the rules simple at first, log every trigger, and add filters one at a time, so you can see which metrics genuinely add value and which are mostly noise. I’ll be interested to hear what you find after the next 450 races.

Well I've finally got to the stage where I've created a simple rule based on my TPD observations over the last few weeks so the next few days could be interesting

[stumirren]

I've been trying to sign up, but can never get past the register screen.
tried all the usual, add the email to contacts/ different email addresses etc..

slightly bizarre that they have all this data but can't sort the website out to be functional.

[lotora]

I've been trying to sign up, but can never get past the register screen.
tried all the usual, add the email to contacts/ different email addresses etc..

slightly bizarre that they have all this data but can't sort the website out to be functional.

For what it’s worth, I’ve had very good experiences contacting TPD through their website. It might be worth dropping them a message there, as they’ve always been very helpful with me.

[jamesedwards]

I've been trying to sign up, but can never get past the register screen.
tried all the usual, add the email to contacts/ different email addresses etc..

slightly bizarre that they have all this data but can't sort the website out to be functional.

It's not just you. I just tried and had the same problem.

TPD customer service said they were having issues with outbound emails this week, most likely this issue is connected.

[stumirren]

Hi, yeah emailed them and they got back pretty quick and got me registered, they did say that the email system is down for a few days and its all linked..

[TPD-Zone]

To confirm that we are having email related issues - the email host mistakenly suspended our sending emails and we now have to jump through a load of hurdles to get the service restored. This apparently may take two or three business days. We are receiving emails and if you are having sign-up problems please drop an email to [email protected] and one of the Team will set you up manually. Apologies for the inconvenience.

[Dave64]

I'm having some success with my TPD automation but must admit I'm still a little confused with the meaning of the metrics. Am I correct in thinking that having a CE or VE value close to 100 is the optimum and that anything significantly higher or lower, i.e 140 or 60 is a negative signal? I'm sure that I read somewhere that the lower the figure, i.e closer to zero, the more efficient a horse was travelling? I know that the figures need to be used in various combinations and with plenty of other factors brought into the equation, and I'm making good progress with my current strategies, but which one is correct. Any advice or help would be appreciated

[jamesedwards]

I'm having some success with my TPD automation but must admit I'm still a little confused with the meaning of the metrics. Am I correct in thinking that having a CE or VE value close to 100 is the optimum and that anything significantly higher or lower, i.e 140 or 60 is a negative signal? I'm sure that I read somewhere that the lower the figure, i.e closer to zero, the more efficient a horse was travelling? I know that the figures need to be used in various combinations and with plenty of other factors brought into the equation, and I'm making good progress with my current strategies, but which one is correct. Any advice or help would be appreciated

Mostly from AI...


How Velocity Error Works:
> The Par Baseline: Course pars are calculated using historical data from past winning horses at the specific course, distance, class, and going.
> The Calculation: VE aggregates how much "off par" a runner has traveled since the starting gates opened. It acts as an absolute error value, meaning it increases whether a horse is running significantly too fast or too slow compared to the ideal speed map.

Interpreting the Numbers:
> Zero or Low Numbers: A lower number is ideal, indicating the horse is running smoothly and closely matching the expected optimal pace. Zero would mean running perfectly on par, though this is practically impossible. Lower scores generally hover around 50, while higher, poorer scores reach 100 or more.
> Jumping Fluency Proxy: In jump races, Velocity Error is heavily influenced by a horse's jumping. A bad jump causes a sharp loss of speed, forcing the horse to work harder to catch up, which spikes the Velocity Error upwards.


How Velocity Fluctuation Works:
> It measures how much a runner's velocity line bounces up and down.
> Refresh Rate: The system updates this measurement every single second using live GPS sensors carried by each horse.
> Scoring: A lower number shows a smooth, steady pace. A higher number shows erratic speed changes, surging, or slowing down.

Interpretating the Numbers:
> High VF Score: Indicates poor performance, bad jumping, or wasted energy. For example, a horse that makes a poor jump over a hurdle loses immediate speed and must frantically accelerate to catch up, creating a massive spike in velocity fluctuation.
> Low VF Score: Indicates an efficient, smooth stride and consistent rhythm, meaning the horse is running evenly without erratic speed bursts.


How Cadence Error Works:
> It measures how far a horse's stride frequency (steps per second) deviates from the expected "par" cadence for that specific stage of a race.
> Cadence Definition: Cadence is the horse's rhythm or stride frequency (the number of strides taken per second).
> The "Par" Baseline: TPD establishes course pars based on historical data of winning horses at that specific course, distance, ground condition, age, and class.

Interpretating the Numbers:
> The CE metric quantifies how much a horse's rhythm strays from this optimal rhythm.
> A low number (or green indicator on platforms like Bet Mover) means the horse is maintaining an efficient, expected rhythm.
> A high number (or red indicator) means the horse is off-stride, struggling with its rhythm, losing coordination, or over-exerting/slowing down unexpectedly (such as after a poor jump over a hurdle).

[Dave64]

Cheers James

I'm still not sure where this 'efficiency score' of 100 comes from?

'To fully leverage the 0–100 normalized scale in your live trading, you must understand how Velocity Error (VE) and Cadence Error (CE) dynamically impact this baseline score. When tracking efficiency, a score of 100 implies a horse is wasting zero metabolic energy relative to the "course par". However, watching how the numbers deviate from this benchmark provides your trading triggers.'

[jamesedwards]

Cheers James

I'm still not sure where this 'efficiency score' of 100 comes from?

'To fully leverage the 0–100 normalized scale in your live trading, you must understand how Velocity Error (VE) and Cadence Error (CE) dynamically impact this baseline score. When tracking efficiency, a score of 100 implies a horse is wasting zero metabolic energy relative to the "course par". However, watching how the numbers deviate from this benchmark provides your trading triggers.'

I always assumed it's like an index of 100, so 100 is par, <100 means the stride frequency is slower than par, and >100 means faster than par. But I don't really use CE so I may very well be wrong.

[jamesedwards]

Cheers James

I'm still not sure where this 'efficiency score' of 100 comes from?

'To fully leverage the 0–100 normalized scale in your live trading, you must understand how Velocity Error (VE) and Cadence Error (CE) dynamically impact this baseline score. When tracking efficiency, a score of 100 implies a horse is wasting zero metabolic energy relative to the "course par". However, watching how the numbers deviate from this benchmark provides your trading triggers.'

Saying that, sometimes CE is useful when the value becomes extreme.

eg in that last race at Newton Abbot, 6f out the commentator stated that Premier Fantasy was "still travelling well as he normally does", but the VF and VE weren't great, plus CE was 179 indicating a particularly high stride frequency. Due to the commentator's words I was able to lay at a lowish 3.45. If the CE had been closer to normal I wouldn't have identified any opportunity. Low and behold, Premier Fantasy was well beaten on the run-in.