Can someone help me produce a chart like this: Are you skillful or just lucky chart

[gstar1975]

Can someone teach me how to produce a chart like this for my strategy please? I really want to know if I have a profitable strategy. Its in profit but i want to see through that, and see if it was just luck.

Fav against Implied Odds chart.jpg

[Aberdeentrad]

Are you trading pre-off so you can use SP as a test of value? If so it should be quite straightforward using Betfair history files to get the SP and see if you are generating EV to match your actual profits.

[gstar1975]

Are you trading pre-off so you can use SP as a test of value? If so it should be quite straightforward using Betfair history files to get the SP and see if you are generating EV to match your actual profits.

Yes trading pre off. I have all the average lay bet prices as I trade more than 1 runner sometimes just 1. Plus I have all the BSP data for those runenrs. I just dont know the formulas and how to set it up on a Spreadsheet. How do you get a rolling 100ma 250ma and the grey line? and how and when do you "move the moving averages" like Peter says in the video so its still readable.

My average lay price is 4.864 and the average BSP is 4.897. It was in profit to start with and is now back to Break even after 1400 markets, and I dont want to bail I want to keep going if I am truly beating BSP which I am at the moment not by much but maybe enough.

PL Chart.jpg

Am I Skillful or just lucky chart attempt.jpg

[jamesedwards]

A very quick and simple measure that I use...

Right click on the data line in the graph and click add trendline. Then check the R² value option.

The higher the R² the less likely luck has to play in the trend. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficie ... ermination

[jamesedwards]

Are you trading pre-off so you can use SP as a test of value? If so it should be quite straightforward using Betfair history files to get the SP and see if you are generating EV to match your actual profits.

Yes trading pre off. I have all the average lay bet prices as I trade more than 1 runner sometimes just 1. Plus I have all the BSP data for those runenrs. I just dont know the formulas and how to set it up on a Spreadsheet. How do you get a rolling 100ma 250ma and the grey line? and how and when do you "move the moving averages" like Peter says in the video so its still readable.

My average lay price is 4.864 and the average BSP is 4.897. It was in profit to start with and is now back to Break even after 1400 markets, and I dont want to bail I want to keep going if I am truly beating BSP which I am at the moment not by much but maybe enough.


PL Chart.jpg

Am I Skillful or just lucky chart attempt.jpg

Was your stake consistent throughout?

[gstar1975]

Are you trading pre-off so you can use SP as a test of value? If so it should be quite straightforward using Betfair history files to get the SP and see if you are generating EV to match your actual profits.

Yes trading pre off. I have all the average lay bet prices as I trade more than 1 runner sometimes just 1. Plus I have all the BSP data for those runenrs. I just dont know the formulas and how to set it up on a Spreadsheet. How do you get a rolling 100ma 250ma and the grey line? and how and when do you "move the moving averages" like Peter says in the video so its still readable.

My average lay price is 4.864 and the average BSP is 4.897. It was in profit to start with and is now back to Break even after 1400 markets, and I dont want to bail I want to keep going if I am truly beating BSP which I am at the moment not by much but maybe enough.


PL Chart.jpg

Am I Skillful or just lucky chart attempt.jpg

Was your stake consistent throughout?

I used liability lay stakes to a fixed liability on 7 different prices next to each other and sometime they all got filled sometimes none sometime 1. So i had a fixed market maximum liability.

[jamesedwards]

Yes trading pre off. I have all the average lay bet prices as I trade more than 1 runner sometimes just 1. Plus I have all the BSP data for those runenrs. I just dont know the formulas and how to set it up on a Spreadsheet. How do you get a rolling 100ma 250ma and the grey line? and how and when do you "move the moving averages" like Peter says in the video so its still readable.

My average lay price is 4.864 and the average BSP is 4.897. It was in profit to start with and is now back to Break even after 1400 markets, and I dont want to bail I want to keep going if I am truly beating BSP which I am at the moment not by much but maybe enough.


PL Chart.jpg

Am I Skillful or just lucky chart attempt.jpg

Was your stake consistent throughout?

I used liability lay stakes to a fixed liability on 7 different prices next to each other and sometime they all got filled sometimes none sometime 1. So i had a fixed market maximum liability.

As this means your stakes will vary it's worth looking for any correlation between profit and stake.

I often wheel out this p&l graph from an old automation of mine that shows the impact of stake. This was greyhounds too.

Impact of stake.PNG