What's the best way to green up a market position using Betfair SP?

[jamesedwards]

Obviously you don't know what SP will be before it is set. So what's the best way to green up a market position using SP to spread a green position as equally as possible across all selections?

[Euler]

I do it just after the market's gone in play and the market stabilised. The way I know the market is stabilised is from the book percentage. When it first goes in play, it could be 80%, 85%, or whatever, but it soon begins to settle down to something a bit closer to 100%.

[ShaunWhite]

Obviously you don't know what SP will be before it is set. So what's the best way to green up a market position using SP to spread a green position as equally as possible across all selections?

SP will at some point be close to the last mid price.

From the scheduled off, continually amend (or cancel/replace) a take sp bet (at 1000 or 1.01) that's staked as if SP will be the current mid. When the flag drops you'll have your SP hedge although it'll never be quite perfect, on average it's good enough.

Don't refresh it too often or for very small stake changes, or you'll blow up your transaction limit. It will also work if you have additional matches as your periodic amendment will be based on your current exposure. So your check for abs(current sp stake - required sp stake) would exceed your replacement threshold and trigger your amendment.

It works, done it for years. You'll get a few that's a bit off in thin markets where sp isn't especially close to last mid but they average out.

[jamesedwards]

I do it just after the market's gone in play and the market stabilised. The way I know the market is stabilised is from the book percentage. When it first goes in play, it could be 80%, 85%, or whatever, but it soon begins to settle down to something a bit closer to 100%.

Sorry, I should have said; it's greyhounds so no in-play.

[jamesedwards]

Obviously you don't know what SP will be before it is set. So what's the best way to green up a market position using SP to spread a green position as equally as possible across all selections?

SP will at some point be close to the last mid price.

From the scheduled off, continually amend (or cancel/replace) a take sp bet (at 1000 or 1.01) that's staked as if SP will be the current mid. When the flag drops you'll have your SP hedge although it'll never be quite perfect, on average it's good enough.

Don't refresh it too often or for very small stake changes, or you'll blow up your transaction limit. It will also work if you have additional matches as your periodic amendment will be based on your current exposure. So your check for abs(current sp stake - required sp stake) would exceed your replacement threshold and trigger your amendment.

It works, done it for years. You'll get a few that's a bit off in thin markets where sp isn't especially close to last mid but they average out.

Thanks, will give this a whirl.

[jamesedwards]

I do it just after the market's gone in play and the market stabilised. The way I know the market is stabilised is from the book percentage. When it first goes in play, it could be 80%, 85%, or whatever, but it soon begins to settle down to something a bit closer to 100%.

Sorry, I should have said; it's greyhounds so no in-play.

Do you still need at least £10 liability for a lay SP bet? If so then this ain't gonna work because I playing with £1 stakes at the moment.

[Trader724]

Obviously you don't know what SP will be before it is set. So what's the best way to green up a market position using SP to spread a green position as equally as possible across all selections?

SP will at some point be close to the last mid price.

From the scheduled off, continually amend (or cancel/replace) a take sp bet (at 1000 or 1.01) that's staked as if SP will be the current mid. When the flag drops you'll have your SP hedge although it'll never be quite perfect, on average it's good enough.

Don't refresh it too often or for very small stake changes, or you'll blow up your transaction limit. It will also work if you have additional matches as your periodic amendment will be based on your current exposure. So your check for abs(current sp stake - required sp stake) would exceed your replacement threshold and trigger your amendment.

It works, done it for years. You'll get a few that's a bit off in thin markets where sp isn't especially close to last mid but they average out.

Out of interest, roughly what percentage of these green-up bets end up not getting matched before the market suspends at the off, leaving you with the maximum liability?

I mean cases where the race starts before your latest amended/replacement bet gets taken, so you’re left significantly under-hedged. Is that something you see often, or is it very rare in practice?

[ShaunWhite]

Out of interest, roughly what percentage of these green-up bets end up not getting matched before the market suspends at the off, leaving you with the maximum liability?

I mean cases where the race starts before your latest amended/replacement bet gets taken, so you’re left significantly under-hedged. Is that something you see often, or is it very rare in practice?

Hardly ever, the only risk is the race starting between the cancel and replace (or replace the cancel old) it's a takesp bet placed at 1000 or 1.01 so nothing gets taken, it just goes into the sp reconciliation process.

[ShaunWhite]

Do you still need at least £10 liability for a lay SP bet?

Yes.
But sp greening is a 0ev bet so nothing gained or lost by not doing it, if you don't mind the variance.

[jamesedwards]

Do you still need at least £10 liability for a lay SP bet?

Yes.
But sp greening is a 0ev bet so nothing gained or lost by not doing it, if you don't mind the variance.

Aussie greyhounds only returning a small +EV, so better to green and avoid most of the 8% commission.

[Trader724]

Out of interest, roughly what percentage of these green-up bets end up not getting matched before the market suspends at the off, leaving you with the maximum liability?

I mean cases where the race starts before your latest amended/replacement bet gets taken, so you’re left significantly under-hedged. Is that something you see often, or is it very rare in practice?

Hardly ever, the only risk is the race starting between the cancel and replace (or replace the cancel old) it's a takesp bet placed at 1000 or 1.01 so nothing gets taken, it just goes into the sp reconciliation process.

Yes that's actually the bit I meant the small window between cancelling the old bet and placing the replacement bet. I was wondering how often the market suspends during that window leaving you without the intended SP hedge.

[ShaunWhite]

Yes that's actually the bit I meant the small window between cancelling the old bet and placing the replacement bet. I was wondering how often the market suspends during that window leaving you without the intended SP hedge.

Sort of depends where you set the threshold for a replacement / how often you do it. And I can't comment on BA (20ms cycle) vs something faster. I used to have about 0.1% fail I think with a stake change >£1 but I changed it to wrap both transactions up in a batch so that you get both processesed or neither.

[Trader724]

0.1% isn’t exactly negligible. On top of that, this type of hedge generates a fair bit of taxable churn. Though I can see why it might still make sense depending on what you’re trying to achieve.

[weemac]

For hedging an open back liability (>£10 ), enter an SP lay for the bet liability plus or minus your expected profit/loss x seconds before off time.

Same in reverse for laying first, but you have no concerns about minimum SP bet sizes. I do pennies all the time - you leave it as an unmatched back with 'Take SP' selected.

Whatever you do, it's all rather imperfect but better than faffing with multiple cancellations/re-entries, imo.