How fake are the markets?

[steven1976]

How fake or manipulated to people believe the markets are?

The more Im in the markets the more I see they are controlled whether it be the favourite, 2nd favourite a 10 shot etc....

I see the same trap over and over again with reasonably strong money (depending how far out from the start) at say example 3 on the layside and 3.10 on the back side and looking weak in the middle. Waiting for a decent order so they can just push the odds either way they want as they have made the market on both sides of the book?

There is a positive to this for me that 10mins from the off they dont like showing their cards to much so its an easy scalp for a few quid as long as I keep stakes low but it becomes harder as it approaches the off unless you have a big bank (still the same trap).

Its not just horse racing but i see the same trap pretty much on most sports. Dont get me wrong I wish i could do it on a big scale but i dont have the funds to make the market both sides of the book and push the odds around.

Is this just my imagination or is this one of the reasons why betfair introduced their high tax as the guy with the biggest bank is always going to have more of an advantage and therefore in the long term it is going to be harder for the exchanges to attract new money?

[Alpha322]

Have to dissagree with you there, yes there is manipulation at times but not always. You can get 10 tick swings with a £2 stake, you can push the market with big money only for a few ticks, someone or majority opinions will correct or even push it where it was suppose to be going. Big money will only get partialy matched at most times unless its Cheltenham, Ascot or something but even then it will not be able to affect the market

[mugsgame]

Your bank has absolutely nothing to do with your success.
You can make a living (no PC) with a £500 bank if you know what you are doing.

The guys with 100000 banks will have their pants down if they are hacked. We all know BF wash their hands of any software issues if it doesn't impact their profit.

[CaerMyrddin]

I have to agree, you can do miracles with a small bank that you can't with a big one.

[hgodden]

I think the racing markets (in the short term) are often more of a dictatorship than a democracy.

[steven1976]

Thankyou Hgodden for backing me on that one. I had you down as a Kim Jong Un yourself!

I dont disagree with people saying you can do wonders with a small bank and a 2 pound swing but i think they are missing my point that a dictator they are not looking out for a 2 pound order but sitting around waiting to take total control to make their profits. Ive found its the only way i can trade by keeping it at low stakes. The second I go for larger stakes they wipe my arse. They are looking for several hundred quid orders or more depending on the odds to push the odds as they wish.

If I play at the front of the queue with a couple of quid scalps well out from the off I can be a few quid up before the market starts. Ive even seen them flex there muscles by putting 14Gs lays 14 mins out at me as Im pixxing them off! haha

This is also why i believe the bomber isnt some crazy mad man. They can push the odds out to where they want, use a big lump of money to scare the market into initial shock, then to a point of the market settling before slowly off loading their back stake of which i belive a lot of it would be their own they crash through.

Jim the guys with 100s K bank have it for a risk reward reason. The largest Ive seen is pushing on 500K and they are not keeping it there for interest payments. The security issues so far have been quite little, there is little evidence on a large number of accounts being attacked and money withdrawn.

[psycho040253]

The first time that I saw 'market manipulation' was on 3 March 2006 when a horse called Christy Beamish ran in the 4:45 at Newbury. It was a 2 mile 6 furlong Hunter Chase. Twenty minutes before the off, its Betfair odds were 3.9. Five minutes before the off, the odds had risen to 6.6. One minute before the off, the odds had again risen to 13.5. In the space of twenty minutes, the odds had more than tripled. Just before the off, the odds suddenly decreased to 10.0. According to the betting, Christy Beamish had little chance of winning. Sadly, for Christy Beamish’s layers, the horse didn’t realise and its odds shortened steadily throughout the race as it looked more and more certain to win. It did – and easily at that.

I've seen similar happen many times since.

If this market manipulation? You bet your sweet bippy it is .

Psycho

[Zenyatta]

I've had my arse taken to the cleaners time and again trying to use stop-lossses. That's why I don't use them any more, if you can clearly see which way its going, just place your bet without a stop and ignore all future moves until you get to the SP, even the bomber can't stop a drifter drifting in the long run, manipulation only works in the short-term.

These people would rip off their own grandmothers for a couple of quid, but their bullshit will not work on me any longer.

Cheers

[superfrank]

The first time that I saw 'market manipulation' was on 3 March 2006 when a horse called Christy Beamish ran in the 4:45 at Newbury. It was a 2 mile 6 furlong Hunter Chase. Twenty minutes before the off, its Betfair odds were 3.9. Five minutes before the off, the odds had risen to 6.6. One minute before the off, the odds had again risen to 13.5. In the space of twenty minutes, the odds had more than tripled. Just before the off, the odds suddenly decreased to 10.0. According to the betting, Christy Beamish had little chance of winning. Sadly, for Christy Beamish’s layers, the horse didn’t realise and its odds shortened steadily throughout the race as it looked more and more certain to win. It did – and easily at that.

I've seen similar happen many times since.

If this market manipulation? You bet your sweet bippy it is .

Psycho

this kind of thing is not necessarily manipulation but often more to do with traders collectively trend following, with each correction being hit until some money says that enough is enough and that the price has reached too great a value not to oppose the trend.

we've all seen massive drifters romp home but markets are driven by sentiment... non-trader money can also be influenced (if a punter sees that his selection is drifting sharply he may be dissuaded from placing his bet).

tbh i've seen much less of these big drifting favs recently (maybe the bomber(s) has caught a few with their pants down).

if i see big drifting fav just before the off (that is not sweating/playing up) i'll often back it and let it go in-play and hedge either way shortly after the off (have had some good results with that but it's a smallish sample).

[icarus121]

Great thread..

Thought exactly that today ,when i was trading the favs.Day ended up 19 points but it was a battle ,4 out of 22 bad reds.Well said Zenyatta ,i agree totally and like many im sure looking forward to the better racing and liquidity.

Heads up guys ,the smoke screen and mirrors have become transparent....

[rubysglory]

I think the term manipulation is overused. When betfair users quote 'the market' the inference is made that 'the market' is a single entity and betfair is the sole provider of market services. Arbitrage across muliple providers plays a part not truly considered or understood by many players. The result is that large markets movements are often blamed on manipulation rather than the skilled and precise trading that is being taken place on a global scale.

rg

[steven1976]

Id say the term manipulation is under used. Id say that most of us are guilty of it to a certain extent at some point even if it is only on a small scale. I will regularly put a bit of money a few ticks away from an order I have in the market with no intention of it being filled and only there for no other reason that to try and create an impression that the market is strengthening and if it does then great, if not then ill cut out. This is one form of manipulation but i think that there are lots of ways.

Using small stakes it is easy to get a nice swing but try putting a few grand or even a few hundred into the market and it becomes a different ball game. See how quick they can come at you and willing to push through you.

I guess its only the bigger manipulation with big moves that gets seen easily though. In the football and cricket I see 100s of K stacked on both sides with a weak amount in between these two amounts. If someone comes in and places say a back bet in the middle of them two amounts they can simply put a big lay into that position knowing you are going to have to wait behind 100K on the back side of their moneyto get your 100 quid filled right?