2012

[Iron]

The article says that 40% of McDonald's revenues come from Europe.

If the Euro goes belly up, will you be selling your McD's shares?

Jeff

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Crappy New Year! Stocks Will Fall 35% in 2012 Says Schoenberger

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 42361.html

[superfrank]

from a markets point of view i think there's every chance that things might stay about the same (cue stock market crash on 3rd Jan!).

the central banks are determined to keep things propped up with funny money (thus preventing any true economic structuring or real recovery).

we've already got zombie banks and it looks like we're gonna get zombie economies too.

sooner or later things will come to a head and some difficult decisions will have to be made, but if i was having a bet i'd say it will be later rather than sooner.

Eurozone zombies follow Mario Draghi's cheap money
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... money.html

I wish I could borrow unlimited amounts of money at 1pc - I'd be a very rich man.

[Iron]

I think one of the big challenges of 2012 will be that lots of sovereign debt will become due, meaning that new loans will need to be taken out in order to repay them, often at much higher interest rates.

What is clear is that the status quo is not sustainable. Today, Italy were paying 7% interest again, despite new austerity measures being approved yesterday. That's not sustainable. We were told about 3 months ago that there were just 8 weeks left to save the euro, but very little has happened since then. IMHO, it's just a matter of time before the markets bring things to a head...

Jeff

[Iron]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's Predictions for 2012: China's growth model tests its limits - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... imits.html

A nice cheery post for Xmas!

Jeff

[Iron]

House prices 'will slump by 3% as they drop in 2012 for the fifth year running'

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... z1hattfXaZ

However, the ever optimistic Express tells us that 'some believe 2012 will see a highly resilient housing market'... http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/291 ... for-a-year

Jeff

[Iron]

House prices: Will they fall or rise in 2012? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16288438

[Euler]

I reckon, eurozone collapse aside, that the UK may do better in 2012 than commentators think.

[onemichael]

I think that 2012 will be a very difficult year. I think a major fall will come when some countries breaak away from the Euro.However, after the shock has passed and it is found that these countries are getting back on their feet there will be an upturn. The same kind of up turn that happened here after leaving the ERM.

[Iron]

UK jobs outlook is the 'worst for 20 years' - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs ... years.html

It's going to be tough, but I think there will still be opportunities for people who are willing to put themselves out there and show an employer that they're willing to give 100%.

And if anyone is thinking 'It's easy for you to say that', I'm actually looking for work myself right now!

Jeff

[Iron]

Odds on the news: What might happen in 2012? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16303870

[Photon]

OK so my 2011 prediction were you would think a bit outrageous and colourful in language but my three points did play out which were: i) higher inflation ii) higher unemployment and iii) higher debt to GDP ratio.

Well I think we're going to see the repeat of this in 2012 with an added complication of lower growth.
And I don't think that there will be a break up of euro zone in 2012 which will probably excecebate the situation and delay the inevitable for later generation. I think the politician are too clever by half for this to let happen easily.

The current demand for USD as a safer haven will soon subside and we’re likely to see demand for Japanese Yen, Gold and commodities increase in the mid part of the year. The UK house prices will continue to wobble around current level as its currently in a bind with shortages in housing is met with shortage in credit availability but may explode spectacularly again but probably in 2013.

Re: 2011

Postby Photon » Mon Dec 20, 2010 10:39 pm
Potential FT article towards the end of 2011:

In the hindsight, 2011 began as under the fog of ice but little did the US Fed, the BoE or the ECB knew exactly how little they know. The QE3 proposed by the Fed’s chief Bernake was approved unnanimously the US congress in March 2011 and with one of the republican senator willing to give knighthood (if such a thing was possible) to Bernanke for coming to the rescue of America.

However, little did the Fed know that the Chinese machinery finally getting to talk and understanding the impact of the gentle request made by the US in the late 2010 would have devastating impact towards the end of 2011.

Towards the middle of 2011, the Chinese authorities finally agrees that it is in the best interest of the world economy is to let the Chinese Yuan float and leave to the market elements to reach its correct price.

As soon as the announcement is made and all controlling mechanism is disbanded, Chinese Yuan is getting spirally out of control is appreciated remarkably quickly afterwards. This meant that imported goods from China is lot dearer to consumer in the US and Europe stroking inflation to 10% within a month.

Inflation then keeps growing at a rapid rate is estimated to have reached 400% on annualized basis as we speak. With little growth in prospect in USA as well as Europe, the unemployment has reached 25% as companies are unable to afford import from overseas especially China and with little or no capacity to produce and export (by taking advantage of relatively low exchange rate) to create jobs, the USA and most of the Europe (except Russia) is on the brink of starvation.

The debt as % of GDP of USA & Europe has reached to an astonishing level that the economists have stopped calculating the impact. The government employed economists haven’t been paid for the last 6 months and are currently looking for alternative employment for survival.

User avatar
Photon

Posts: 112
Joined: Mon Nov 29, 2010 10:14 pm

[superfrank]

Photon,
i agree with everything you wrote apart from the last bit... have you seen the predictions for unemployment and the house price/average earnings ratio?!!
imho house prices will continue to decline slowly in real terms for the next 10 years (and that's the best case scenario).

[Iron]

Recession 'to return' to Europe, say economists - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16361047

[Iron]

"We will be far enough along in the next 12 months that we will have banished the dangers of contagion and stabilised the eurozone."

Wolfgang Schauble, German finance minister

However, not all commentators are so optimistic: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... culed.html

Jeff

[Iron]

Three big questions for the eurozone - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16367653