Football Backing System

[DrMachado]

Hi, i am looking for backing systems for football to compare to mine...

My system consists of starting a match with a Back

and then

Close when a goal in my favour is scored, if a goal is scored against me i wait until 2-1 or advantage.

But...

if after making the back (at 15 minutes for example)i predict the other team is going to score i:

change from back to lay draw (if the game is expected under)

or

change from back to +2,5 (if the game is expected to be over).
<<if i change it on the 2half i do +1,5 instead of +2,5>>

What do you think?

i`ve looked for similar systems but havent found any...

Thanks

[CaerMyrddin]

Hi, most traders don't use a plain system, so my guess is you won't find any.

[mister man]

im assuming you are backing in the 1x2 market initially.
if you then lay the draw your big risk is 0-0 as all your green is in initial back and im guessing again that youve layed for similar value to your back so youve got scratch on your initially not fancied team, and red on the draw.

i certainly wouldnt be changing my initial position after 15mins if the game was 0-0 as you seem to be suggesting.

lots of systems out their, you can try, have you tested it to get a robust p&l over a period of time.

good luck.

[DrMachado]

im assuming you are backing in the 1x2 market initially.
if you then lay the draw your big risk is 0-0 as all your green is in initial back and im guessing again that youve layed for similar value to your back so youve got scratch on your initially not fancied team, and red on the draw.

i certainly wouldnt be changing my initial position after 15mins if the game was 0-0 as you seem to be suggesting.

lots of systems out their, you can try, have you tested it to get a robust p&l over a period of time.

good luck.

yes, i am using this "system" (designed by me) since the start of this season and so far i get average of 50% bank profit per month...

i dont consider this to be a plain system, its a system more to help me organize my ideas in-play and a helper to keep me disciplined (thats how i see it).

im sure more traders use something like this, but never seen anyone posting it on the internet.

i guess is because good professional traders dont write in forums

[DrMachado]

Hi, i am looking for backing systems for football to compare to mine...

My system consists of starting a match with a Back

and then

Close when a goal in my favour is scored, if a goal is scored against me i wait until 2-1 or advantage.

But...

if after making the back (at 15 minutes for example)i predict the other team is going to score i:

change from back to lay draw (if the game is expected under)

or

change from back to +2,5 (if the game is expected to be over).
<<if i change it on the 2half i do +1,5 instead of +2,5>>

What do you think?

i`ve looked for similar systems but havent found any...

Thanks

what do you guys think of my system?

[LeTiss]

What do you do if the team you backed goes 1-0 down, and it stays 1-0?

[mister man]

if its 50% up month on month for 4 months that looks good to me.
many pro/good traders do post on internet forums, but they tend not to reveal their systems/edge for obvious reasons.
Ive found lots of help on internet forums elsewhere, and im sure you can too, bet angel is a great piece of software and very helpful for football traders like you and me, sadly since i joined and currently the forum (by and large with a few exceptions)isnt.

well done on those profits

[Iron]

It certainly merits further attention, but those stats need to be looked at critically, with questions being asked like:

A. How many games were bet on during those 4 months?

B. What was the average risk and the average reward?

C. What stake sizes are used?

You need to be wary of being fooled by randomness...

Jeff

if its 50% up month on month for 4 months that looks good to me.

[mister man]

4 months (16 weeks) im sure its more than random, even if only betting at weekends, which i doubt as hes got bet angel,and bothered to try and get feedback..

maybe he will let us know

[Iron]

Not necessarily. As Psycho said in the other thread, he's known systems to stay successful for a very long time, and then crash and burn...

Jeff

4 months (16 weeks) im sure its more than random, even if only betting at weekends

[Iron]

PS A friend of mine once made 50% ROI over the course of a season by repeatedly backing the top 3 Premiership teams at the time. I'm sure you'll agree that his success didn't prove that it was a sound system!

Jeff

[mister man]

yes everything changes over time,its defining the time period and being ahead of the decline curve thats the hard bit...
sorry thats a trend and they dont exist do they mr seykota and fans..

[Iron]

Trends exist only in the sense that history exists.

I bet your physics teacher had fun teaching you about Schroedinger's Cat, the cat that is both alive and dead! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOYyCHGWJq4

Jeff

sorry thats a trend and they dont exist do they mr seykota and fans..

[DrMachado]

What do you do if the team you backed goes 1-0 down, and it stays 1-0?

if i think theyll recover advantage i mantain the back, if i think theyll not score and will lose the game then ill close the bet with a parcial loss.

i use stakes of 5/10% of the bank

[mister man]

drmachado..

looks good to me..
take some advice, betangel is the best software on the market, its also one of the most expensive rightly so, as a result, the forum is full of self righteous, wan*ers who would rather die than offer genuine help,they might and will pretend to help, with a few exceptions, the help and advice you seek is not here, its elsewhere.
dont waste your time on the many "pros" here,if you want some advice where to go for genuine help PM me..

really you wont find it here with the current crowd