Southwell 12:40 - is this value?

[JollyGreen]

I know value is a subjective thing but in this race Esteem has been smashed from 3.75 into 2.30 despite only winning ONE race in 28 attempts. In fact he won over 8f on the flat and has not won over jumps.

he's a dubious stayer if the ground is sticky it won't suit him.

I couldn't back him with your money at that price

[CaerMyrddin]

Thank you for the heads up.

[JollyGreen]

Sorry for the late post, I am not feeling my best today! I did this earlier and like a complete idiot I forgot to hit the SUBMIT button.

[CaerMyrddin]

No problem mate, congratulations and again, thank you.

I hope you made a lot

[enzabella2009]

I know value is a subjective thing but in this race Esteem has been smashed from 3.75 into 2.30 despite only winning ONE race in 28 attempts. In fact he won over 8f on the flat and has not won over jumps.

he's a dubious stayer if the ground is sticky it won't suit him.

I couldn't back him with your money at that price

Good spot Jolly

I thought I had a spot yesterday my self with a horse called Malin Head (IRE), which started the race favorite, I placed a Lay bet @ 2/1 in running when I thought the horse was losing ground but the horse won..
happens sometimes


17 Jan 12 1/8 10-4 73 Folk 21f Sft 5 A Glassonbury R H Buckler Malin Head (IRE) 7/2 9/4f
16 Dec 11 13/13 11-0 Asc 22f Sft 3 A Glassonbury R H Buckler Hadrian's Approach (IRE) 145.25 100/1 100/1
03 Dec 11 12/14 10-12 Chpw 20f Hvy 4 Gerard Tumelty R H Buckler Knock A Hand (IRE) 67.62 80/1 100/1
09 Nov 11 9/13 10-12 Exe 21f Gd/Sft, (Hdle: Gd/Sft, Sft pl) 4 R Thornton R H Buckler Highland Lodge (IRE) 95.75 50/1 50/1

[JollyGreen]

Yes Enzebella, I saw that market and I did agree with you about the price in running. If you lay horses like that then you will make a profit long term.

Good luck to you

[JollyGreen]

No problem mate, congratulations and again, thank you.

I hope you made a lot

I did okay in a private little wager with a friend who was convinced it was a good thing at the price!

[psycho040253]

Jolly

Esteem was running again today (Lud. 1:40) Started 9/4 JF with Oscar Close who won last Friday with ease.

Esteem stormed home by 5 lengths.

You may have just been lucky yesterday. Luck to you though.

I didn't lay Esteem today. I got one those odd feelings that said stay away.

Psycho

[JollyGreen]

Jolly

Esteem was running again today (Lud. 1:40) Started 9/4 JF with Oscar Close who won last Friday with ease.

Esteem stormed home by 5 lengths.

You may have just been lucky yesterday. Luck to you though.

I didn't lay Esteem today. I got one those odd feelings that said stay away.

Psycho

Hi

Yes, I saw that too but you'll notice I didn't advise anything today. The ground at Ludlow was much better today and it was much easier race as he had one opponent really. TBH Oscar Close won an Egg&Spoon race last time so you had nothing else running for you.

Esteem also didn't jump very well again despite theoretically being thrown in so he's one to be wary of. I certainly wouldn't want to risk money on him with his record of wins!

[JollyGreen]

Also, you were quite correct about me being "lucky" so please don't think my reply was in anyway a sleight on you or the comment you made.

I only go on the value of the horse and the price yesterday was a joke as he was not proven. Connections obviously know he is fit and well, hence leaving him in at Ludlow today. The problem with a lot of punters though is they will forget the previous 3 or 4 times (probably more) they backed him and he lost and just remember today's win. When they check their balance sheet they forget they are still losing.

[psycho040253]

Also, you were quite correct about me being "lucky" so please don't think my reply was in anyway a sleight on you or the comment you made.

Jolly

Nah, Never even considered it, good Sir

Look forward to more of your tips and, yes, I did check this thread pre-race to see if you were up to laying it again. You obviously had the same idea as I did. Either that or you forgot to hit the submit function again - Just joshin'.

Psycho

[enzabella2009]

Hey Jolly,
one of your relative just won the 15.30 @ lingfield..

Well Green

[JollyGreen]

Hey Jolly,
one of your relative just won the 15.30 @ lingfield..

Well Green

You don't know just how correct you are...well almost!

I am related to the jockey!

[enzabella2009]

Do you think I did not that?
Just kidding.

[psycho040253]

Also, you were quite correct about me being "lucky" so please don't think my reply was in anyway a sleight on you or the comment you made.

I only go on the value of the horse and the price yesterday was a joke as he was not proven. Connections obviously know he is fit and well, hence leaving him in at Ludlow today. The problem with a lot of punters though is they will forget the previous 3 or 4 times (probably more) they backed him and he lost and just remember today's win. When they check their balance sheet they forget they are still losing.

Jolly

He had jumping trouble at the first, second and fourth today. Yesterday, he didn't get away with it. Today he did. So, do you back or lay the little fella?

I'll probably have an odds cut off for this one.

< 2/1 - worth laying
> 2/1 - probably worth avoiding

Psycho