Bank shares

[Iron]

Quite possibly, yes...

Jeff

My point was that the falls would probably be even greater if there was no ban.

[superfrank]

Only Europeans could come up with rubbish like banning short selling. I never heard a mention of banning buying during the 'boom'. It's either a market or it's not. More QE (stealing from future generations) guaranteed now.

[Iron]

Rick Perry criticised for Bernanke 'treason' remarks - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14553127



Jeff

[superfrank]

Rick Perry knows it's theft to bail out the baby boomers and has said as much. I don't know much about him but he's a top man for saying that.

[superfrank]

Exclusive: Moody’s Poised To Deliver Bank Downgrades
http://blogs.news.sky.com/kleinman/Post ... 864d0cca8a

[Groovyelms]

Only Europeans could come up with rubbish like banning short selling. I never heard a mention of banning buying during the 'boom'. It's either a market or it's not. More QE (stealing from future generations) guaranteed now.

Banning short selling to artificially restrict market forces does seem another "paper over the cracks" initiative along with QE. The eurozone dare not let greece fail as it could be a potentially lethal wound to the Euro. I do wonder if the uk's decision to keep the pound might in the long run prove to be, very fortuitous.

Regarding short selling, am I right in remembering that the respected George Soros made a huge fourtune out of shorting the pound all those years ago... market forces were in play then as now.
Groovy

[superfrank]

Regarding short selling, am I right in remembering that the respected George Soros made a huge fourtune out of shorting the pound all those years ago... market forces were in play then as now.

Yeah - he opposed another dumbass EU project (the ERM).

Keeping the £ would have been Ok if the BoE hadn't trashed its value.

[Iron]

Some details of the US government's forthcoming bank raids:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09 ... e-details/

As RBS is in the firing line, Uncle Sam will effectively be suing Great Britain!

Jeff

[superfrank]

A tweet by Lord Sugar (which Peter Jones from Dragons' Den agreed with):

Bank shares seem too low,I bought LLoyds RBS and Barclays Friday. Don't follow me I'm no expert.Take professional advise if u fancy a punt

Lord Sugar bought on 12/08/11:

LLoyds (LLOY) = 33.82p

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) = 26.49p

Barclays (BARC) = 187.20p


Currently:

LLOYS = 31.12p (-7.98%)

RBS = 23.67p (-10.65%)

BARC = 165.5p (-11.59%)

Indeed Lord Sugar you are no expert, note to self: Do the opposite of what Lord Sugar suggests

just checked again...

LLOYS = 23.24 (-31.3%)

RBS = 19.01 (-28.2%)

BARC = 164.9 (-11.9%)

don't give up the day job!

[andyfuller]

I typed this up last night for a couple of friends who are like me starting out on financials:

View: Buy at 29.62

Have been playing about with Lloyds and attached the Charts for daily and hourly.

The downtrend LLOY have been in since Feb 2011 seems to have come to an end as shown on the Daily chart. It now seems to be in an upwards trend as shown on both charts.

However, there are several resistance levels it will be encountering. The current one is at 30.2p it has tested this level a few time in the last few days and failed to break it. This level previously formed a support level back in September and October 2011. I would be looking for it to break through this level in the coming days given it is trending upwards. If it were to keep on failing to break through this level in the next week I would get out of the buy order.

The next level of resistance looks to be just above at 31.6. This is likely to form a stronger level of resistance than 30.2p as it was previously a strong level of support as shown on the Daily chart during the second half of September and much of October 2011. But again I would be looking for it to break this level given the current up trend.

The major level of resistance after this is not until 38.1p. Which stopped rallies in both September and November 2011.

So my current view would be to buy at the current price 29.62 with a bullish view that it will break through the next two levels of resistance and continue in the current uptrend. If it fails to break these levels I would put a stop in just below the 27p resistance line as it may fall back to this level before testing the higher levels again. I would look to run the trade up to 38p but reassess the charts before then.

Then again you could just say I have drawn a lot of colourful lines on a few charts

Lets see how it plays out....

Views?

Fuller.

[andyfuller]

Beginners luck I think - up 6.34% today and testing the 31.6p resistance.

[CaerMyrddin]

Well done Andy, learning the ropes of the champions league of trading

[Iron]

The downtrend LLOY have been in since Feb 2011 seems to have come to an end as shown on the Daily chart.

How do you know?

It now seems to be in an upwards trend as shown on both charts.

Define 'an upwards trend'. According to what measurements?

I won't go into the historical nature of trends, as I believe that's been covered elsewhere, but a word to the wise: be wary about extrapolation.

However, there are several resistance levels it will be encountering.

How do you know?

The current one is at 30.2p it has tested this level a few time in the last few days and failed to break it.

Has it really tested a resistance point, or is that an optical illusion?

And even if a resistance point existed there in the past, does it mean it exists there now?

You can draw all sorts of plausible support and resistance points on a typical market chart - it doesn't mean that they have any basis in reality, however...

Views?

Yes. That kind of analysis is well-meaning and used by people who have been in the markets long enough to know better, but IMHO it will probably give you the same result as you'd get from trading at random, ie you'd break even long term, were it not for transaction costs.

Jeff

[andyfuller]

No one can ever know as no one can see into the future. But if you wish to trade you need to take a view and that is what I did with the above. So when I say the down trend has come to an end that is my opinion. If you don't take a view at some stage you will never enter a trade with a view to profit.

When I asked for views I was looking for views about what I said being right or wrong about the price movement and why.

You say my analysis is likely to be no better than random, why? And do you have a view about what is going to happen with Lloyds share price?

[Iron]

No one can ever know as no one can see into the future. But if you wish to trade you need to take a view and that is what I did with the above.

Depends if you take a predictive or a reactive approach.

So when I say the down trend has come to an end that is my opinion. If you don't take a view at some stage you will never enter a trade with a view to profit.

Again, you don't need to take a view on anything. You can just react to what happens.

You say my analysis is likely to be no better than random, why?

The market is a complicated beast, full of tricks and traps. It takes just 51% of the money to move the market in a particular direction. Can you predict what 51% of the money will want to do in a day, week or month's time, particularly when stuff going on in the economy could send the share price soaring in either direction?

And do you have a view about what is going to happen with Lloyds share price?

At the risk of sounding flippant, it will go up, down or sideways (assuming that there isn't a major eurozone default, in which case it's conceivable that the chart may simply disappear - permanently!).

"I don’t believe that I am the only person who cannot predict future prices. No one consistently can predict anything, especially investors. Prices, not investors, predict the future. Despite this, investors hope or believe that they can predict the future, or someone else can. A lot of them look to you to predict what the next macroeconomic cycle will be. We rely on the fact that other investors are convinced that they can predict the future, and I believe that’s where our profits come from. I believe it’s that simple."

John W. Henry (Trend follower and owner of Liverpool FC)