Very interesting lecture by a mathematician who devised a system with a 24% ROI:
http://www.slipperytoad.co.uk/2011/06/l ... t-be-done/
Jeff
Mathematics of handicapping
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rubysglory
- Posts: 309
- Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am
Interesting Jeff. With reference to the video clip, it appears that what he has essentially done is convert the more common tabular bonus and penalty type handicapping process into a modelling formula that encompasses industry standard variabes which include weight (of horse and jockey), fitness (days since last run) and strike rate (average finishing position). Knowing that you enjoy a mental challenge, if you have not aready, get yourself a copy of "Dr Z's Beat The race Track (revised edition)" by William T Ziemba and Donald B Hausch. Based on the Place and Show markets in the USA, it provides an interesting perspective on formulated gambling in horse racing.
rg
rg
Followed some interesting links from that article Jeff, read the story of a couple of pro gamblers that worked in the huge Hong Kong racing markets and these guys make even the best Betfair traders look very small fish by comparison.
http://www.tonywilson.com.au/writing/alanwoods.php
"It's September 2005 and I'm sitting in a beanbag on the 32nd floor of a luxury Manila apartment block, structuring a sentence that I suspect is going to end with 'if that isn't a rude question'. I know the man opposite me is worth at least US$150 million, I know the vast majority of his fortune has been won on the Hong Kong races, and I know he dislikes being asked how much he is worth. Nevertheless I have to go for it - because the how-Alan-Woods-became-a-successful-gambler story doesn't pack the same punch without the how much.
I ask the question and we bathe in its stench for a few seconds. Alan runs a hand through his white game-show host hair.
'Hundreds of millions Australian,' he says. 'Much less than a billion.'
I pluck another number and ask higher or lower. Now I'm the game-show host. Alan's reply is slow and measured.
'To be perfectly honest, I don't exactly know. I've deliberately tried to not work it out … In terms of net worth, can I say between $200 million and $500 million Australian?' ""In the crash of 1987 he made his first million by shorting (that is, betting that stock prices will fall) the Hong Kong stock exchange. A few months later he lost it trying to short the Nikkei. In the late 1990s, convinced the dot.com boom couldn't last, he attempted to short the Nasdaq - and at the height of his losses he was down US$100 million. Luckily horses kept running and Alan kept winning. Sometimes it pays to be different."
Basically in 1984, Alan Wood had teamed up with another pro gambler, Bill Benter ,and they spent a few years developing computer software for handicapping the Hong Kong races.
"The computer model started winning in 1987 - US$100,000 for the season - the same year that the Alan-and-Bill alliance broke up.
"Alan's software did anything but self-destruct. In 1987-88 he won HK$3 million. The next season $7 million. Then 11. Then 19."
http://www.tonywilson.com.au/writing/alanwoods.php
"It's September 2005 and I'm sitting in a beanbag on the 32nd floor of a luxury Manila apartment block, structuring a sentence that I suspect is going to end with 'if that isn't a rude question'. I know the man opposite me is worth at least US$150 million, I know the vast majority of his fortune has been won on the Hong Kong races, and I know he dislikes being asked how much he is worth. Nevertheless I have to go for it - because the how-Alan-Woods-became-a-successful-gambler story doesn't pack the same punch without the how much.
I ask the question and we bathe in its stench for a few seconds. Alan runs a hand through his white game-show host hair.
'Hundreds of millions Australian,' he says. 'Much less than a billion.'
I pluck another number and ask higher or lower. Now I'm the game-show host. Alan's reply is slow and measured.
'To be perfectly honest, I don't exactly know. I've deliberately tried to not work it out … In terms of net worth, can I say between $200 million and $500 million Australian?' ""In the crash of 1987 he made his first million by shorting (that is, betting that stock prices will fall) the Hong Kong stock exchange. A few months later he lost it trying to short the Nikkei. In the late 1990s, convinced the dot.com boom couldn't last, he attempted to short the Nasdaq - and at the height of his losses he was down US$100 million. Luckily horses kept running and Alan kept winning. Sometimes it pays to be different."
Basically in 1984, Alan Wood had teamed up with another pro gambler, Bill Benter ,and they spent a few years developing computer software for handicapping the Hong Kong races.
"The computer model started winning in 1987 - US$100,000 for the season - the same year that the Alan-and-Bill alliance broke up.
"Alan's software did anything but self-destruct. In 1987-88 he won HK$3 million. The next season $7 million. Then 11. Then 19."
Another short profile with photo of Alan Wood, world's greatest horse handicapper:
http://www.billionairegambler.com/2011/ ... woods.html
When he died of cancer in 2008 at the age of 62, he had amassed a fortune of $670 million from gambling. The biggest gamble of his life ($100 million) was an attempt to short the NASDAQ stock market. He just missed winning tens of billions by wrong timing of only 60 days!
http://www.billionairegambler.com/2011/ ... woods.html
When he died of cancer in 2008 at the age of 62, he had amassed a fortune of $670 million from gambling. The biggest gamble of his life ($100 million) was an attempt to short the NASDAQ stock market. He just missed winning tens of billions by wrong timing of only 60 days!
ha - that graphic of the overlapping distributions was exactly my idea of the perfect way to assess a horse's probability of winning. Unfortunately I was (and still am) to useless to work out how to assess the mean and sd of the distributions or extract probabilities from the multiple distributions.....
Dave
You might find this site useful: http://www.smartersig.com/
The resources and the forum are subscription-only, but they're into stats.
Jeff
You might find this site useful: http://www.smartersig.com/
The resources and the forum are subscription-only, but they're into stats.
Jeff