Remaining in control

A place to discuss anything.
Groovyelms
Posts: 277
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am

psycho040253 wrote:I'm glad that my comments were treated in the spirit that they were intended and that my cahunas are still in tact.

Moving on then ....

A couple of years ago, some research was conducted on gambling.

The research showed that when a bet doesn't succeed, it's not just the betting bank that is affected. So is our psychological well-being - to the tune of 2.5 bets (for the average person).

What this means is that, in order to redress our psychological well-being, for every lost bet, not only must we recover our losses, we must also win 2.5 bets. So, even if we recover our lost funds on the very next bet following a loss, our psychological well-being will only be restored if we win the next 1.5 bets as well.

The research also showed that it was the loss, rather than the amount lost, that affected the psychological well-being. For example, the psychological loss of losing £100 was found to be greater than that associated with losing only £1. But, it was nowhere near 100 times greater. It's the loss itself, rather than the amount lost, that does the majority of the psychological damage.

Psycho :evil:
Intresting.... I agree with the alteration of the mindset caused by the loss... the 2.5 figures sadly will no doubt get checked out soon :cry:
Groovy
Alpha322
Posts: 932
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:45 pm

stevequal wrote: Understanding how much money I can potentially win or lose is a big part of the problem. I whaven't been adjusting my stake size according to the price. I would back £200 at 2's and £200 at 8's. One of things I openly admit (almost embarassingly) is that I would see a decent lay opportunity, but go for back opportunity instead, because I could make more money, because of the limited liability.
This sort of staking is very dangerous. You would be better off using tick sizes. The tick size fucntion governs your bank roll in percent at each set of odds, say you wanted to use a max of up to 20% of the bank and had £100 bankroll your tick size would be £2, so you would never use more than £20 (odds on prices), as your roll increases so does your tick size. Hope this helps
stevequal
Posts: 457
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 9:36 am

This sort of staking is very dangerous. You would be better off using tick sizes.
I know this is what I should be doing, but the point I was trying to put across is that I don't do it because I am looking to make the quickest return possible.

I have an irresponsible staking technique.
psycho040253
Posts: 109
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:29 pm

stevequal wrote:
This sort of staking is very dangerous. You would be better off using tick sizes.
I know this is what I should be doing, but the point I was trying to put across is that I don't do it because I am looking to make the quickest return possible.

I have an irresponsible staking technique.
Stevequal

My previous posts have centred around the emotional side of gambling. Let's now look at the logical side:

There's a direct relationship between risk and reward. The greater the reward that you desire, as a proportion of your stake, the higher the risk of failure. Conversely, the less the reward that you desire, as a proportion of your stake, the lower the risk of failure.

By your own admission, 70% of your losses have come from the failure of your loss-recovery methods.

If you lower your sights and accept a lower reward, in terms of your stake, the risk of failure will fall. If you fail less, by definition, you will succeed more. If you succeed more, you won't need to invoke your loss recovery methods quite so often. In addition, because you will lose less when you lose, you will need to risk less to recover your losses.

I know that you want to make as much as you can as quickly as we can. However, my Dad used to tell me that the quickest way isn't always the fastest.

Psycho :evil:
psycho040253
Posts: 109
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:29 pm

psycho040253 wrote:
stevequal wrote:
This sort of staking is very dangerous. You would be better off using tick sizes.
I know this is what I should be doing, but the point I was trying to put across is that I don't do it because I am looking to make the quickest return possible.

I have an irresponsible staking technique.
Stevequal

My previous posts centred around the emotional side of gambling. Let's now look at the logical side:

There's a direct relationship between risk and reward. The greater the reward that you desire, as a proportion of your stake, the higher the risk of failure. Conversely, the less the reward that you desire, as a proportion of your stake, the lower the risk of failure.

By your own admission, 70% of your losses have come from the failure of your loss-recovery methods.

If you lower your sights and accept a lower reward, in terms of your stake, the risk of failure will fall. If you fail less, by definition, you will succeed more. If you succeed more, you won't need to invoke your loss recovery methods quite so often. In addition, because you will lose less when you lose, you will need to risk less to recover your losses.

I know that you want to make as much as you can as quickly as you can. However, my Dad used to tell me that the quickest way isn't always the fastest.

Psycho :evil:
stevequal
Posts: 457
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 9:36 am

If you lower your sights and accept a lower reward, in terms of your stake, the risk of failure will fall. If you fail less, by definition, you will succeed more.
As you say its a very logical argument. My problem has always been that the less I stake, the less I take it seriously. I do sometimes wonder that if I put in larger stakes, it I would appreciate it differently. It's very difficult to tell.

One pattern I have noticed, is that if I have a bank of £200, I will be around £180 - £250 for a few days. But as soon as I go below, £150 I jump down very quickly. Once I get to £100 its probably gone within an hour.

Another pattern, is that the next day when I look at my bank and it's gone back to zero, after losing it the previous day. I was think, if I had just stopped. I would really appreciate that £100. It's amazing how different your mind can be.

Looking back I wish everytime I had gone down to £100, I had just topped it back upto £200. I probably would have saved 50% of my losses had I done this from day one.
werewolf
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2011 11:15 am

It's almost like we've been seperated at birth mate. Your story is vertically identical as mine. I've been on betfair just over a year and bet angel about 6 months. I transfered some money back into my bank account last week and saw my net loss is about £800 for the year plus my bet angel subscription. I think i'm getting somewhere, start making a decent profit and then get wiped out in one through returning to those bad habits in stupidity, greed or sheer bad luck. I've had my share of disaters, the worst being once trading horses, i'd been succesful on a few occasions in a little system backing in the morning putting £50 stakes on and laying before the off. A pound had been taken of my stake and I was that pissed off that I couldn't lay that £1 off I followed the price down with the other £49 which then duly rose back when it was matched. I didn't have bet angel then and couldn't get out quick enough. The horses price then rose in play and I layed to get my £50 back. It then won knockin me for £125 I think. That's when I started my bet angel subscription. I mainly trade on football, I know what I want to do, but the bad habits are always there, I keep thinking i've learned my lessons, stick to the plan, make my profits by being carefull then hit that wall. I think that if I was stood behind someone telling them what to do they'd make a decent amount of money. The betfair mobile app has especially been a bain for me. Usually, after a bad one i'll take a few days off recharge my batteries, get the taste for it again and i'm ready to go again. I've even been at the stage making bets almost expecting to lose. I'm not one for sulking about it, sometimes I can even laugh about it after, I know what it's all about and i've learned how to deal with losing money now and I can certainly see the potential in betfair, if it was normal gambling i'd have quit a long time ago. So just wanted to let you know you're not the only one because it certainly feels like it sometimes, i've not put my usual £100 in my account since october so I hope i'm improving and feel more in control nowadays, so good luck and I hope you get there !!
James1st
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:28 am

stevequal wrote:As you say its a very logical argument.
Most traders learning the business actually follow the same path from relative ignorance to a fully professional approach to trading but going over that same path, in the same direction repeatedly, rarely turns a part time trader into a professional. Perhaps it is time to take a unique view of your experience and reverse the thinking process.

Why do traders get frustrated/angry/envious when they do something that causes them to lose large sums or even their whole bank? It is usually because they realise that a weakness in them or in their methods is what is to blame. So, why did you lose so much money? The usual reason is that you were trying to recover a smaller loss and irrationally decided that placing a bet (or lay) or going in-running would enable you to recover that loss; and sometimes it does but more often than not, and certainly in Steves case, the losses accrued attempting to save smaller losses usually account for a huge proportion of overall losses suffered by employing such recovery methods.

The problem here is that "something" has gone wrong with your fundamental controls to make you suffer the smaller loss and psychologically you need to wipe out the memory of that error by recovering the loss, to make things "right". Why does this "smaller loss" matter? Simply because it is an "unacceptable smaller loss" . Every trader needs a failsafe device/method that prevents him from exceeding an "acceptable" loss and every trader needs to learn how to "accept" an acceptable loss. Peter has alluded to using automation (or Excel) to prevent the temptation of going in-running/gambling but it is like locking the stable door after the horse has bolted. Of course the suggestion has merit and in the absence of being able to properly address the real issue, it can be a useful tool in the learning process.

Have you clearly defined what you regard as acceptable profit and loss amounts within your method of trading? All professional traders realise and accept that whilst they enjoy positive P/L's that their path to success is littered with losses, all of which are inevitable. Losses are the other side of the risk/reward equation and defining what level of loss within the methodology is absolutely essential to good trading. Is your expectation realistic? Steve admits that his expectations are not insofar that he needs to use larger stakes to make the process seem real to him. Stake/profits/losses are part of the same equation, an equation that is finely balanced and designed to produce an overall profitable P/L that is both sustainable and predictably boring. I say boring because, as Peter says, until you understand that trading is not the quick way to riches and Pro traders bread and butter is the ability to add together a succession of £1 profits, then you will fail to make trading pay. Is the trader disciplined enough to carry out the trading methodology? A single lapse is all that is needed to turn a winning day into a loser and however rigid a trading process is defined, there will always be an unexpected event that catches out even the most robotic of traders.

Still working backwards from that loss of bank, the methodology a trader chooses to use has to be clearly defined and easily executed. He has to prove the method makes money and also prove that the method does not suffer "unacceptable" losses. Every loss that a system makes can be annoying/upsetting but it would be a foolish trader that employs a methodology that throws up losses that are not part and parcel of the trading plan. If your method of trading is unstable, assuming you can not cope with instability, then it is time to re-examine whether or not it is the right method for you.

Every method of trading has to contain an edge and in order to exploit that edge the method has to define stakes/gains/losses in sufficient detail that the whole process of trading becomes boring in its execution and doesn't contain any surprises such as an "unacceptable" loss. Failure to sufficiently define a trading method in enough detail will lead eventually to a loss of your bank.
Photon
Posts: 206
Joined: Mon Nov 29, 2010 10:14 pm

James1st wrote:Still working backwards from that loss of bank, the methodology a trader chooses to use has to be clearly defined and easily executed.
I quite agree. To be successful at trading, you have to define method & refine it until its a really reliable and solid enough to sustain seasonality and other market related factors. But having a method is not good enough as flawless execution is the second essential factor. I would say the best way to overcome psychological factors affecting trade is not trade to make money. At first this may read daft but believe me its the want of making loads of money very quickly that's affect performance. Just worry about not loosing much and see where that takes you.
stevequal
Posts: 457
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 9:36 am

I posted my original message on the forum for two reasons. I needed a reality check and I needed someone to listen. I felt like I was keeping this dark secret on a daily basis. My friends and family were carrying on with their lives going to work while I was at home losing more and more money. So when people were worried about offending me (Psycho), they were exactly the sort of person I needed to hear from. Similarly, it’s nice to others (werewolf) tell similar experiences to my own.

In the one and half years, I've been trading, I have picked up a lot of knowledge. I've recorded a lot of charts, market data even videos of the ladders. But not once have I written down a single strategy. It seems crazy, but I've been seduced by this idea of just sub-consciously reading and trading the market. I know I need to dismiss this thought and develop some clear theories to properly test. i.e enter a market with x amount when y conditions are met. I also need a clear staking plan with a clear idea of what I could make and loose in a trade.

James, I read your "newbies guide" last year, I recognised your style of writing almost straight away. I was almost too arrogant to take onboard your advice when I read it. I just seemed like too much work and effort to take onboard. You were taking about developing an edge, which sounded slight and small. I was in the search of something bigger.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Steve

It's easy to close one's eyes to the truth and to avoid doing painful things. But avoiding the pain of confronting stinging home truths and doing stuff like closing out for a loss rather than going in-play is self-defeating - it ultimately results in more pain.

So rather than blocking pain, you need to accept it.

And if you want to make a lasting change to your trading (or any other aspect of your life), you could do worse than listen to this advice: viewtopic.php?f=36&t=3024&hilit=resolutions

Jeff
SamWilson82
Posts: 95
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 11:23 am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1wcDBJpxE8

I think this video will sit well here.
stevequal
Posts: 457
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 9:36 am

I think this video will sit well here.
"Trading patterns that get you into trouble are state dependent". That's a really great insight. That's a top video, I'll watch it a few times to keep the key concepts insight and see if there are anymore videos like it.
lilgreenback
Posts: 211
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 11:28 am

Thanks for posting that video Sam very interesting, he is certainly worth a little further research and listening to.
Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”