Can anyone explain why it becomes hard to increase stakes? Why do markets tend to turn against orders when you increase orders?
Ive read in other threads that people have struggled with increasing their stakes and said they become less profitable than using smaller stakes. Why is this?
I personally agree that it is easier to use small stakes but what I am trying to understand is why a market turns against a larger order?
Why is it hard to increase stakes?
-
CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
I think that if you increase your stakes you show your hand too much and also you risk "becoming the market"?
Part of understanding the market is working out how much the market will "take". PW often talks about fill rates. This is how long an order in the market takes to get filled.
Some times you can struggle to get get matched with £200 on a 2.2 shot, other times you can stick in 2k on a 6 shot on a big Saturday handicap and get matched instantly.
It is about making that judgement. A good tool to use to help you with this is under the race info and time under the tabs is the stats about the market. Total matched, How much it increased and the average increase. I like to take note of the average increase. I want to see a number that is about 30% of what I am putting in. This isn't an exact science. But you can taylor the amount to this in a way that suits you.
Some times you can struggle to get get matched with £200 on a 2.2 shot, other times you can stick in 2k on a 6 shot on a big Saturday handicap and get matched instantly.
It is about making that judgement. A good tool to use to help you with this is under the race info and time under the tabs is the stats about the market. Total matched, How much it increased and the average increase. I like to take note of the average increase. I want to see a number that is about 30% of what I am putting in. This isn't an exact science. But you can taylor the amount to this in a way that suits you.
-
luissuarez
- Posts: 18
- Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:18 pm
My bet angel doesn't display the average increase, is there a setting for this ?mugsgame wrote:
A good tool to use to help you with this is under the race info and time under the tabs is the stats about the market. Total matched, How much it increased and the average increase. I like to take note of the average increase.
-
mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
mine neither, good question luis.luissuarez wrote:My bet angel doesn't display the average increase, is there a setting for this ?mugsgame wrote:
A good tool to use to help you with this is under the race info and time under the tabs is the stats about the market. Total matched, How much it increased and the average increase. I like to take note of the average increase.
on the money thing, it seems as if not showing your hand/or when and how to, is the thing, it sounds as if the real trick is to actually do just that to trick others, in effect pre off horse trading is mainly a smoke and mirrors game.
-
SamWilson82
- Posts: 95
- Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 11:23 am
I think this is more of a problem for shorter term traders.steven1976 wrote:Can anyone explain why it becomes hard to increase stakes?
Low fill rates in a thin market can give the impression that you are being pushed around and where your smaller stake would get matched the bigger one would only be partially matched before going against you.
Conspiracy theorists would suggest that Betfair might be watching you.... or a super bot.
luissuarez and mister man
stick your cursor over the event name on the one click screen and right click.
you should see a box with market title and market volume in there. tick the volume box.
if its not there then click customize and there should be 3 box's, market title,market volume, one click settings.
tick market volume (or what else you require), and hopefully you should see average increase displayed in a live market where money is being matched. if its flat eg, no money changing hands, it will not display anything.
stick your cursor over the event name on the one click screen and right click.
you should see a box with market title and market volume in there. tick the volume box.
if its not there then click customize and there should be 3 box's, market title,market volume, one click settings.
tick market volume (or what else you require), and hopefully you should see average increase displayed in a live market where money is being matched. if its flat eg, no money changing hands, it will not display anything.
I cannot agree with all the conspiracy theories.Mister Man wrote:on the money thing, it seems as if not showing your hand/or when and how to, is the thing, it sounds as if the real trick is to actually do just that to trick others, in effect pre off horse trading is mainly a smoke and mirrors game.
This is caused by not matching the amount of money you are putting in with the fill rate/ odds or runner and possibly position in the market.
If you put more in than the market will allow this changes the markets behaviour. I wonder how many stick in the same amount (£100/ £200 / £500) whatever the odds, whatever the liquidity of the market. You really need to match this up. It's basic stuff.
If you are into manipulating the market (The Bomber for example) this is a whole other game. You can use guys like this to create a strategy in itself.
I am sure some of the guys into the phycology of trading will bear out how markets move and chasing odds movements. (Jeff?)
luissuarez/ Mister Man
Click on settings at the top of the one-click screen, then click on edit settings. From the window that opens, you'll find the info you're looking for under the 'display' tab. There's a box that needs to be ticked under 'volume moving average' called 'calculate MA'
Save it, and this will display the info on your one-click screen
Click on settings at the top of the one-click screen, then click on edit settings. From the window that opens, you'll find the info you're looking for under the 'display' tab. There's a box that needs to be ticked under 'volume moving average' called 'calculate MA'
Save it, and this will display the info on your one-click screen
When you say a market turns on the appearance of a large order, how much does it really turn. As traders we can be super sensitive to small movemets in the market - I scalp pre-race looking for 2/3 ticks. These are such small movements it tends to be traders that create/notice the micro-volitality, to an outright backer/layer these movements are generally insignificant unless a significant price point is reached. (eg 2.00)
I think the market has a lot of excuses for turning away from a large order scalpers have theirs, swing traders have other reasons - there is probably no one answer, but a collection of different stratergies reaching the same conclusion for different reasons.
Have you ever noticed on days when the bomber is about that races trade slightly differently, people try to anticipate his movements sometimes false orders appear to try and spook the market.
Guaging the significance of a race in advance is important. I am always amazed at how much extra money is on a Group/Grade1 race, I expect there to be more of course, but the the volumes on the book are significanly higher - even a G1 in Dubai beomes tradable! Are there punters who just play Group races? Why?
I think the market has a lot of excuses for turning away from a large order scalpers have theirs, swing traders have other reasons - there is probably no one answer, but a collection of different stratergies reaching the same conclusion for different reasons.
Have you ever noticed on days when the bomber is about that races trade slightly differently, people try to anticipate his movements sometimes false orders appear to try and spook the market.
Guaging the significance of a race in advance is important. I am always amazed at how much extra money is on a Group/Grade1 race, I expect there to be more of course, but the the volumes on the book are significanly higher - even a G1 in Dubai beomes tradable! Are there punters who just play Group races? Why?
-
luissuarez
- Posts: 18
- Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:18 pm
Thanks letiss/to75ne have now got it displayed
If you want a short answer it's because the larger your stake the bigger the influence you have on the market.
If you had £5 in a market and it was filling at £500 a second, your order will go in a flash. If you had £500 in a market at the same fill rate it will take a bit of time, if you have £1000 in, it will probably move before it fills.
If you had £5 in a market and it was filling at £500 a second, your order will go in a flash. If you had £500 in a market at the same fill rate it will take a bit of time, if you have £1000 in, it will probably move before it fills.
That's very true, but I also think bigger stakes effect people more. If you've had a £1000 trade, and it's gone against you by a tick, there's a tendency to get out quick with a small loss before it becomes painful.
However, with only £10 you're more likely to hold your nerve and stay put. There's every chance you were right in the first place, and that bet will come back to you for a profit
However, with only £10 you're more likely to hold your nerve and stay put. There's every chance you were right in the first place, and that bet will come back to you for a profit
-
aleksandar
- Posts: 26
- Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 10:50 pm
My experience with stake amount influence to some strategy profit leads me to the conclusion that it contains two components:
a) As already said before, big stakes influence market participants behavior so the market prices will respond. How, in which way? I think answer on this has many stochastic components which are also changeable over time.
b) If we exclude a) and presume that market behavior is not influenced by your stake amount, you will still have the issue with fill rate. Let us consider very small stake, 1 eur. Your strategy will consist of loosing and winning trades. Almost every trade will have whole 1 eur filled. And you realize it is profitable, (wining trades) minus (loosing trades) is consistently profitable. Cool. But if you have 1000 eur stake, than your winning trades will not always be with whole stake amount, some of them will be just partially matched. Opposed to that, your loosing trades, when market goes against you, will always be fully matched, 1000 eur. So you have winning trade with 517.14 eur stake opposed to loss with 1000 eur stake. That new component to the equation, (partially matched winning trades) minus (fully matched loosing trades) lowers profit per stake curve slope, and of course can lead to unprofitable situation if you exaggerate the stake.
And of course if you trade manually, than there can be your psychology that can influence your trading style so ... Everything is possible.
And spot that even if we could magically suppress the a) and the psychology stuff, the b) is always present and determined by market liquidity.
a) As already said before, big stakes influence market participants behavior so the market prices will respond. How, in which way? I think answer on this has many stochastic components which are also changeable over time.
b) If we exclude a) and presume that market behavior is not influenced by your stake amount, you will still have the issue with fill rate. Let us consider very small stake, 1 eur. Your strategy will consist of loosing and winning trades. Almost every trade will have whole 1 eur filled. And you realize it is profitable, (wining trades) minus (loosing trades) is consistently profitable. Cool. But if you have 1000 eur stake, than your winning trades will not always be with whole stake amount, some of them will be just partially matched. Opposed to that, your loosing trades, when market goes against you, will always be fully matched, 1000 eur. So you have winning trade with 517.14 eur stake opposed to loss with 1000 eur stake. That new component to the equation, (partially matched winning trades) minus (fully matched loosing trades) lowers profit per stake curve slope, and of course can lead to unprofitable situation if you exaggerate the stake.
And of course if you trade manually, than there can be your psychology that can influence your trading style so ... Everything is possible.
And spot that even if we could magically suppress the a) and the psychology stuff, the b) is always present and determined by market liquidity.
-
psycho040253
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:29 pm
Excellent post.aleksandar wrote: But if you have 1000 eur stake, than your winning trades will not always be with whole stake amount, some of them will be just partially matched. Opposed to that, your loosing trades, when market goes against you, will always be fully matched, 1000 eur. So you have winning trade with 517.14 eur stake opposed to loss with 1000 eur stake. That new component to the equation, (partially matched winning trades) minus (fully matched loosing trades) lowers profit per stake curve slope, and of course can lead to unprofitable situation if you exaggerate the stake
This doesn't only apply to trading. It also applies to backing and laying.
Psycho
