I've no idea if this a stupid question or not, no doubt plenty will tell me if it is.....
I'm crunching some numbers, based around the price movement of short priced favs in the minutes before the off. The only way that I can see of comparing the general trend as to whether horses drift or shorten in price is to look at the SP and compare it with the opening show price as given in the full results section of the RP.
Now, my question is....what determines the "opening show price"? It would be lovely if it were as simple as the prices on offer x minutes before the off, but I dare say that it's not an exact science, and very much depends on the amount of money in the market leading up to the off. Am I close? Sensible answers (even if I'm not being sensible!), only please. Thanks in advance.
NUMBER CRUNCHING - A question
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
The opening show is generally governed by the amount of money a bookmaker has taken on a runner. They usually create a tissue price by handicapping the card and creating odds based on form, breeding etc. If the horse is supported then the price will shorten if it isn't then it will lengthen. The market forces will soon determine the correct price.
There can be some changes when the on-course market opens although it is not quite so pronounced these days because of Betfair. However, if a course bookie has no liability on a runner they may choose to offer better prices to attract money; they may find that the price has contracted too much and punters have lost interest.
This can start a small drift and layers on Betfair join the fun and push it further out. It can then reach a point where the punters step in and so it drops down. Basically the market will determine the correct price and that is what causes the fluctuations on most markets.
There is no hard and fast rule for measuring the price unless you can get hold of a tissue from a prominent bookmaker. That's why Betfair now has a leading role in setting the price, the early prices will either get smashed up or ignored if they are too high or too low. As the money comes in and the volume increases so the price becomes more accurate.
I hope that gives you an insight to the mechanism of prices.
There can be some changes when the on-course market opens although it is not quite so pronounced these days because of Betfair. However, if a course bookie has no liability on a runner they may choose to offer better prices to attract money; they may find that the price has contracted too much and punters have lost interest.
This can start a small drift and layers on Betfair join the fun and push it further out. It can then reach a point where the punters step in and so it drops down. Basically the market will determine the correct price and that is what causes the fluctuations on most markets.
There is no hard and fast rule for measuring the price unless you can get hold of a tissue from a prominent bookmaker. That's why Betfair now has a leading role in setting the price, the early prices will either get smashed up or ignored if they are too high or too low. As the money comes in and the volume increases so the price becomes more accurate.
I hope that gives you an insight to the mechanism of prices.
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airtomoreira
- Posts: 18
- Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:17 pm
Thanks for that JG, I'd say that the answer to my question is, as I'd suspected, "it depends" on many factors!
I'm just intrigued by the apparent fact that the majority of favs that are less than 2/1 on the opening show, with no other horse in as 2nd fav at 3/1 or less,(in other words unlikely to be challenged for favouritism) seem to shorten in price before the off. This is where the number crunching is coming in, to see if it's worth looking to back blind, and lay off just before the off, or at BSP, based on the premise that there'd be more of a net profit over time in greening up than in "reding down". Early days yet, need to check a lot more day's results than I have so far!
I'm just intrigued by the apparent fact that the majority of favs that are less than 2/1 on the opening show, with no other horse in as 2nd fav at 3/1 or less,(in other words unlikely to be challenged for favouritism) seem to shorten in price before the off. This is where the number crunching is coming in, to see if it's worth looking to back blind, and lay off just before the off, or at BSP, based on the premise that there'd be more of a net profit over time in greening up than in "reding down". Early days yet, need to check a lot more day's results than I have so far!