13:30 Fontwell - Value?

[JollyGreen]

Here's food for thought. Would you back a horse at 2.86 when it is running on HEAVY ground over 2m 2f over hurdles? This horse is being backed because of its second last time out but that was on much better ground. If you dig deeper you will find this horse is bred along US dirt pedigrees I have looked at this horse and whilst it does have a semi-round action I would not say it is an out and out soft ground horse.

IMHO I think this is another horse being priced on weak Irish form and the reputation of the new trainer. I am NOT saying it cannot win, I am simply saying it is not value at 2.86 and I would price this at 3.75-4.00 in my book.

This could be a good lay to back opportunity because this race should be a slog around here today. Remember though, just because this horse does not act on heavy do not assume 100% it cannot win - the others could be just as ineffective on this ground!

If it wins then keep an eye out for it in a more competitive contest on slow ground and then you'll get another opportunity.

Just an insight, please don't go laying it for your whole bank - I get these wrong sometimes!

Good luck

JG

PS It would not surprise me to see this horse drift out to ~3.00 at some stage pre-race. If the layers get stuck in we may get lucky and see it head closer to 3.20-3.25

[convoysur-2]

Hi Jolly.
Thanks for the insight,its informative,and worth checking out,
Marc

[JollyGreen]

Hi Jolly.
Thanks for the insight,its informative,and worth checking out,
Marc

Hi Marc

You are most welcome, thank you for the kind words.

Have you noticed it is already out to 3.00 so a nice push from the layers will hopefully send it higher.

JG

[convoysur-2]

jolly ,
can i ask your opinion on a horse running 2 moro ? g costello is rabecca curtis partner ,and he owns a horse called one term running 2 moro , ap is on board.they are a shrwed combination,if you have time,i would value your opinion.
regards
Marc

[enzabella2009]

Every tipster are quoting Brough Academy the winner. Some site even saying that the horse will leave all other horses far behind it`s tail..That obviously is an esageration. I have also seen tips for ballylifen as the most possible loser of the 3 favorites but still on 6.4. I have the feeling you are so right jolly but I will also place a small bet for ballylifen to win just for fun.

Good luck.

Here's food for thought. Would you back a horse at 2.86 when it is running on HEAVY ground over 2m 2f over hurdles? This horse is being backed because of its second last time out but that was on much better ground. If you dig deeper you will find this horse is bred along US dirt pedigrees I have looked at this horse and whilst it does have a semi-round action I would not say it is an out and out soft ground horse.

IMHO I think this is another horse being priced on weak Irish form and the reputation of the new trainer. I am NOT saying it cannot win, I am simply saying it is not value at 2.86 and I would price this at 3.75-4.00 in my book.

This could be a good lay to back opportunity because this race should be a slog around here today. Remember though, just because this horse does not act on heavy do not assume 100% it cannot win - the others could be just as ineffective on this ground!

If it wins then keep an eye out for it in a more competitive contest on slow ground and then you'll get another opportunity.

Just an insight, please don't go laying it for your whole bank - I get these wrong sometimes!

Good luck

JG

PS It would not surprise me to see this horse drift out to ~3.00 at some stage pre-race. If the layers get stuck in we may get lucky and see it head closer to 3.20-3.25

[JollyGreen]

Marc

I had a quick look at One Term and it must have a chance tomorrow. Be careful though because once again the forecast going is Heavy.

They definitely over faced it last time out at Cheltenham and he ran out of steam over the longer trip. His pedigree is tricky and provides no conclusive evidence of an optimum trip. My interpretation is he probably best suited to front running over 16-17f and setting a fair gallop to run the legs out of his rivals.

It is good to see AP on board and I suggest he knows the horse and how to ride him hence the drop back to 2m. The ground is the worry so if I was asked to back him I would not want to go in hard.

I'll have another look later if I can and get back to you.

[JollyGreen]

Well I wasn't too far off! I did say it was a decent lay to back opportunity and it touched 12 in running with plenty of money on offer at other double figure prices.

If they run this horse again on similar ground then the same opportunity of a lay to back will be on offer as this horse hated every yard of the going!

As I said, do not lay it for your whole bank and I hope you didn't!

BTW did that win like a 2.86 shot? I don't think so!

[enzabella2009]

The horse won but only just. Most layers have defenately made a profit closing their position in running. Ballylifen almost won, it went from 200/1 to 3/1 almost in the end but it could not find enough space on the left to pass the favorite.

[PeterLe]

Hi JG
Glad to see you are on the mend..

Good info;I wish I had time to act on some of the recommendations you make.
If you had laid that selection above for £100 and back it back in running at the top it would have made a very nice trade...you only need a couple of them a day!!
regards
Peter

[JollyGreen]

Hi Peter

Thank you...sort of on the mend!!

Perhaps I should run a private section on here "JG's form trades" what do you think?

JG

[convoysur-2]

great idea jolly .
go for it !!
Marc

[LeTiss]

Interesting stuff JG

I must admit, this mentality forms the bedrock of much of my trading. I am an absolute Football & Tennis anorak, and I place many of my trades according to what I perceive as value. I put my faith in my own judgement, fully expecting the majority of other traders to form the same opinion.

It's this strategy which has provided me with some of the best swings I've had

[Zenyatta]

Good stuff. Jolly Green provides a nice demonstration of what absolute wallies most of the selecters and punters are, as well as putting the lie to the idea that you can't predict price directions on horse racing...in fact you CAN predict them with far better than 50% (chance) accuracy.

[JollyGreen]

Marc

I notice AP is no longer aboard One Term, he's been replaced by Tom Scudamore.

[convoysur-2]

Hi Jolly
ye i see changes have been made .however im more interested now in the others that are running,those trained by rabecca curtis and owned by her partner g costello.i know that he makes his money by buying horses normally abroad,rabecca and himself get them ready and then if there any good jp mc manus buys them,that is why ap has such a high strike rate with curtis,(he rides them and gives jp his opinion)i know this info is fact ,so im always watching out for them ,and if the money comes.its a great in running opertunity,because they are always there or there abouts..
Marc