If you had a horse as good as Menorah, would you be keen to run it on heavy ground in a 3 runner race with Cheltenham just around the corner? If you decided to run would you really want it to have a hard race?
Menorah is not going to be suited by heavy going but then again most horses would prefer to avoid it. Admittedly there are real mudlarks but they're not always top class horses - that's not meant to be a disrespectful comment, just an observation.
With the above in mind is a price of 1.80 acceptable? Kid Cassidy has shown he handles soft ground but heavy is a different proposition. He does get a 7lb allowance from Menorah and that may come in handy when push comes to shove!
Would I want to lay Menorah and not trade out? No! Would I try a lay to back strategy? Yes! This is a good opportunity if you can race read because after 3-4 fences (maybe less) you'll know if Menorah or his rivals are handling the ground. Jumping out of heavy ground can really take its toll and IMHO connections will not want to bottom out a top class horse with Cheltenham and the Arkle Chase being their priority.
If you get worried and want a way out then offer a lay of Kid Cassidy at a price below 2.0. Should this horse make a race of it with 2-3 fences remaining you should be able to get a match to mitigate any loss on Menorah. It's tricky but some of you will know which way you prefer to play this race. It may be you'll look to back Menorah at a bigger price in running and use a "greened" stake to provide an equal profit.
Once again it's food for thought, this could be an interesting race.......and a tight one I hope!
Good luck in whatever you do.
JG
Doncaster 13:50
After winning off Jolly's tips, readers may then want to take their dosh and invest it on the feature of the day (14:50, Sky Bet Chase) and my own tip 
Shakalakaboomboom is lightly raced over fences and has strong form on the board (two good wins), and a progressive profile.
My recommendation is to back Shakalakaboomboom at any price above 8.0.
Shakalakaboomboom is lightly raced over fences and has strong form on the board (two good wins), and a progressive profile.
My recommendation is to back Shakalakaboomboom at any price above 8.0.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I like your tip but the heavy ground dampens my ardour. I am going to have a bet free day - trading only!
Good luck Zenyatta!
Good luck Zenyatta!
