Taunton 14:10 - value?

[JollyGreen]

Would you back a horse that has never jumped a hurdle in public if the price was 1.66? Furthermore, would that price be 1.66 if it was trained by anyone other than Paul Nicholls?

I wish the ground at Taunton was softer because then I would be saying to oppose this horse without fear. Sadly the going is good/soft but I would suggest there isn't much good in it!

This is yet another French import for this money bags trainer; no problem with that BUT this is a speedy type so punters would have to be concerned. He is by Red Ransom who was a sprinter that showed his best form on a fast surface. That would explain why connections have chosen an easy track like Taunton for this horse to make his debut.

If you need proof that the so called "experts" within the Racing Post are swayed by the trainer, cost of the horse etc then look at the comments on this horse and another runner in the race by the same sire.

Dildar - Good Flat form in France; very strong claims
Red Flash - Modest 47-rated Flat maiden; stamina and ground concerns

These horses have similar pedigrees and whilst that isn't an exact science I find it strange that there are "Stamina and ground concerns" about Red Flash but "Very strong claims" for Dildar

As always I am NOT saying this horse cannot win, I am simply posing the question, why is this horse so short in the betting and does it represent value and/or the true price of the horse?

This should be another good lay to back opportunity for those who like this kind of trade. I would be amazed if this horse can start at 1.66 and stay at this price all the way to the finish so you should get a chance to trade out for a profit.

Alwaary is another decent recruit from the flat and his pedigree suggests he is far more suited to today's conditions. Sadly, this is also a débutante so we don't know how he handles the obstacles. Having said that I know which horse I would back if someone put a gun to my head and said I had to back one or the other.

Please don't lay this horse for your bank, use sensible stakes and look for a lay to back strategy.

Good luck whatever you decide.

MJ

[enzabella2009]

I am looking forward to watch the race. I have took 1.59 very early and closed @ 1.63 very early as well. It seems the price dropped but now it`s going up again few ticks. I will use half of my profit to lay the horse. Hopefully I will be able to close my position in running.
good luck..

[CaerMyrddin]

Thanks mate, already made a small profit

[JollyGreen]

Thanks mate, already made a small profit

You're welcome...it was easy money if you took the lay to back option as he was 1.80 almost immediately and above 3.00 at one point.

This wouldn't win the Triumph Hurdle if it started now!

[enzabella2009]

The winner could not jump properly but still managed to win. For layers that did not get too greedy there was room to make decent profits if they took and early price.
Thank you Jolly...

[JollyGreen]

The winner could not jump properly but still managed to win. For layers that did not get too greedy there was room to make decent profits if they took and early price.
Thank you Jolly...

Prego!

[JollyGreen]

The winner could not jump properly but still managed to win. For layers that did not get too greedy there was room to make decent profits if they took and early price.
Thank you Jolly...

As I said in the original post, do not lay it for your whole bank, follow the lay to back strategy.

[CaerMyrddin]

I laied him at 1.59 and had a closing bet at 2.98, but i only put a small amount in the market. Please don't take this as sign of lacking trust on you JollyGreen! You've been brilliant

[enzabella2009]

It`s unthinkable to lay with my whole bank. I have been trading on that race from very early and only layed the horse with half of my profit made on the pre-trading 14.10 market. I was pretty much covered whatever the result. With 2 fence left I thought that it`s jumping was so ridicules that it could not win. I am looking forward to see the winner jumping again..

The winner could not jump properly but still managed to win. For layers that did not get too greedy there was room to make decent profits if they took and early price.
Thank you Jolly...

As I said in the original post, do not lay it for your whole bank, follow the lay to back strategy.

[JollyGreen]

I laied him at 1.59 and had a closing bet at 2.98, but i only put a small amount in the market. Please don't take this as sign of lacking trust on you JollyGreen! You've been brilliant

No problem, the thought never crossed my mind. I want to get it right all the time but I know that isn't possible. If you look at the ones I have given in the last few weeks they all offered a decent profit and I think two of them won! It shows if you follow the strategy there is a profit to be made no matter how large or small.

[Zenyatta]

A good illustration of KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid.
Just look at anything under 2.00, and make a simple binary choice for In-Play: lay or not. A simple In-play strategy with far less stress and time overhead than pre-race trading, just set up the In-Play lay-to-back trade and forget it.

Of course, you need to be a form-master like Jolly to pick 'em correctly.

[JollyGreen]

You're not too far wrong, although it isn't quite that simple and I am not a form master.

I reckon there is at least one of these each day and generally 3-4 if conditions are correct.