Mediterranean Sea is favourite for this dreadful handicap and I cannot stress enough just how bad a race this really is!
This is a horse I would normally be looking to take on but trying to find something to oppose it with is no easy task. This horse hadn't won a race since May 2010 and despite some place finishes the form was errrrr.....bloody awful!
Then on 9/11/11 this horse won a real egg and spoon race over 14f at this course. If you look at the race you would think it was a classy victory but the time was slow and I'm pretty certain some of her opponents aren't that far away from the glue factory!Then on 6/12/11 they ran her again at today's course but dropped her back to 11f and to be honest she struggled to win. Admittedly she always looked to have the runner-up held but my belief is she would be better at trips above 11f. Despite that scare, connections have rested her and she returns today off a career high mark of 69.
She doesn't look like a 2.76 shot to me, 3.75-4.00 would be nearer the mark for me but hey I don't set the prices. I am not sure today's trip will fully suit her and she now has to try and win off her highest winning mark. She doesn't appear to have a lot going for her at the price on offer.
However, before you jump in and lay this horse without fear you need to look at what is going to beat her. Sadly that is where the plan appears to break down as most of these seem to have escaped from the glue factory!! Starversjoy might appreciate the step up in trip but he is not a great yard stick!
What I did note was Straversjoy finished just behind Mediterranean Sea at Southwell over 12f on 2/8/11 and he was conceding 2lb that day. They now meet on different terms and Straversjoy is in receipt of 5lb. That's a turnaround of 7lb which may and I stress may see them finish much closer.
It's a tricky race, correction, it's an awful race but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
