16:30 Kempton - tight race so....

[JollyGreen]

Why is the favourite so short in price? Yes, she won nicely last time over 6f at Kempton and apparently connections believe she is a real sprinter. Her pedigree would certainly back up their opinion. So why is she running over 7f today? Last time she had the perfect passage through the race and came between rivals to run on well, leaving the favourite in her wake.

Today could be a different story because she has two potential improvers against her in Discoverer and Fairway to Heaven, she's drawn 6 of 7 which means unless she goes from the front her jockey will have to take a pull and drop her in behind which means she'll have to give away ground at the start and then come through runners. That's asking a lot of a horse who supposedly excels at shorter?

I haven't had time to analyse the race fully so I won't be laying this horse. I will watch the race with interest though and would definitely not want to back this horse at 2.40 I would want 3.00 - 3.25 to even consider a bet in this with the trip, draw and two improvers all tempering my enthusiasm.

Just a ramble...I'm panicking a bit because I have a rather important medical appointment soon and I need to take my mind off it!

Good luck to all.

Thanks

JG

[CaerMyrddin]

Backed to 1.01 IR, impressive!

[enzabella2009]

The horse with the bigger head won...Good call jolly..
I have seen the odds fire up from 2.72 to 2.9 in couple seconds just before the start...I was not confidente to trade on that to be honest but luckily I picked the winner in running..

[PeterLe]

That was my best trade of the month so far!
I was on the phone to a customer and nearly dropped the phone!

[JollyGreen]

Well I cannot really lay claim to the 1.01 IR nice though it would've been!

The idea behind my ramblings is to make people aware of how wrong the prices can be at time. Ultimately the market is never wrong because it only moves according to the money flowing into it. However, what this shows that at some stage some people will say "hang on, this price is a bit too low, 7f, two improvers, poor draw" and so the price can move out quite nicely. This was down at 2.40 and went close to 3.0 pre-race!

It also demonstrates that bookmaker's are not stupid. They know that "mugs" will back these so called good things at low prices because they live and bet on the premise that a short priced horse that has been backed has to be a good thing. My crazy ramblings have demonstrated that is simply untrue. Also, despite there being a couple of winners amongst my posts they have all either drifted pre-race or traded as advised at much higher odds in running. That makes a profit to people who are prepared to take a different view to most of the people out there.

You can also see why you need a value price of around 3.00-3.25 to be backing today's runner. If that horse runs next time it will be short again and so you will not be able to show a profit. By not backing it today you can forget it next time and still be level. I was always told "if you didn't go the wedding, don't go to the funeral" it's a cliché but it's true!

If someone on here did manage to lay this at 1.01 IR then mine's a large one!

[enzabella2009]

Hi jolly,
I must admit, I would not lay pale orchid even at 2.00. Ofc if the horse is more suitable for 6f, which was confirmed in running, and the race is 7f I would rather looking for a higher odds winner then laying pale orchid.
There was some amazing trading opportunitys though and all thanks to your aknoledge. However I personally did not make a good use of it as it was not suitable for my trading style but certainly moved, succesfully, my attention to look else-where.