Hi All,
I thought i share my trading strategy for revue / comments:
Football in-play trading:
1. Minimum volume of £50000
2. Football match in-play
3. Favourite is winning at 70th min by no more than 2 goals
4. 3 ticks trade profit with stop loss and green up
5. Max 5 mins then green up if not reach stop loss or target profit
Not sure what you guys would suggest to make this better.
This strategy looks simple and i believe that's the way it should be when it comes to trading.
I find that the odds drop quicker from the 70th mins and if the favourite lead, you have a better chance in the short term to green up.
I would normally use the ladder to trade but i am looking at automating the strategy.
Thanks for reading - Steph
My strategy for comments
IMHO it's a bad strategy.
Reasons:
1) 3 ticks is not enough to protect yourself from a goal. You can make 3 ticks on 10 games, but will be wiped out if 1 game goes against you.
2) The stop loss will be useless. If there is a goal it will be way out. If there is a direct free lick or corner the stop loss may get triggered.
3) You are correct that the odds drop quicker after 70 minutes. There are several entry points in the game where a few ticks can be taken. My suggestion is you have another look at where they are.
I would be looking for at least 10 ticks,
Enter when there is minimal risk and exit quickly. You want to have an open position for the shortest possible time. This is critical.
Forget the stop loss, they do not work with football.
Have an exit plan
Football markets that move using time decay need treating with respect, a goal changes everything.
Good luck
Reasons:
1) 3 ticks is not enough to protect yourself from a goal. You can make 3 ticks on 10 games, but will be wiped out if 1 game goes against you.
2) The stop loss will be useless. If there is a goal it will be way out. If there is a direct free lick or corner the stop loss may get triggered.
3) You are correct that the odds drop quicker after 70 minutes. There are several entry points in the game where a few ticks can be taken. My suggestion is you have another look at where they are.
I would be looking for at least 10 ticks,
Enter when there is minimal risk and exit quickly. You want to have an open position for the shortest possible time. This is critical.
Forget the stop loss, they do not work with football.
Have an exit plan
Football markets that move using time decay need treating with respect, a goal changes everything.
Good luck
-
steph60220
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 12:31 pm
Thanks Guys, for the comments - Appreciate your time. I'am back to the blackboard.
Jeff,
That's a good assessment of what we are looking for.
With a time decay market, like match odds in a football match there is a certain amount of predictability. Let me explain.
There will be times during the match that the decay moves faster than others. I am not going to say when they are as it took me 100's of hours of painstaking work to find them. Sorry.
Like I said, the decay is not uniform. The trick is to enter at the end of a period of static price movement, then odds will drop quickly to reposition in the market exactly where the "should" be. (inefficiency).
I use a model I created that is similar to Soccer Mystic for the over/under markets. People complain (wrongly) about Soccer Mystic not being accurate. This is because as with all models they don't know when a team is having 3% possession (Aston Villa during a period in yesterdays match). The model doesn't know that one team is really up for it and playing for their manager. (Spurs v Newcastle on Saturday evening) But the model is correct, and at certain points during the match, the model will realign with the odds.
The skill is opening a position when the odds are about to realign. This is sometimes dramatic (20 ticks in 30 seconds). I am afraid this is something that needs alot of practice, but is perfectly possible.
The main problem now is football is so popular as a betting medium, that all the sharp guys are doing the same thing. What used to be easy is now very difficult at times.
The best advice I can give about decay betting in general is have an open position for the minimal amount of time possible. You are always at risk while your position is open.
There are some excellent football trading rooms that you can get involved it that help you learn how to trade football. Give Adster a shout he is a footie trader and runs a top class outfit.
That's a good assessment of what we are looking for.
With a time decay market, like match odds in a football match there is a certain amount of predictability. Let me explain.
There will be times during the match that the decay moves faster than others. I am not going to say when they are as it took me 100's of hours of painstaking work to find them. Sorry.
Like I said, the decay is not uniform. The trick is to enter at the end of a period of static price movement, then odds will drop quickly to reposition in the market exactly where the "should" be. (inefficiency).
I use a model I created that is similar to Soccer Mystic for the over/under markets. People complain (wrongly) about Soccer Mystic not being accurate. This is because as with all models they don't know when a team is having 3% possession (Aston Villa during a period in yesterdays match). The model doesn't know that one team is really up for it and playing for their manager. (Spurs v Newcastle on Saturday evening) But the model is correct, and at certain points during the match, the model will realign with the odds.
The skill is opening a position when the odds are about to realign. This is sometimes dramatic (20 ticks in 30 seconds). I am afraid this is something that needs alot of practice, but is perfectly possible.
The main problem now is football is so popular as a betting medium, that all the sharp guys are doing the same thing. What used to be easy is now very difficult at times.
The best advice I can give about decay betting in general is have an open position for the minimal amount of time possible. You are always at risk while your position is open.
There are some excellent football trading rooms that you can get involved it that help you learn how to trade football. Give Adster a shout he is a footie trader and runs a top class outfit.
Thanks Steve
I recently discovered some stats that demonstrated a particular inefficiency in the football market, related to over-reaction and under-reaction. I think the challenge, however, is that what worked in the past might not work in the future, given that many people are constantly searching for edges on Betfair (including Betfair themselves!). So by the time I try to exploit the inefficiency, it may no longer exist. Or am I being unduly pessimistic?
Jeff
I recently discovered some stats that demonstrated a particular inefficiency in the football market, related to over-reaction and under-reaction. I think the challenge, however, is that what worked in the past might not work in the future, given that many people are constantly searching for edges on Betfair (including Betfair themselves!). So by the time I try to exploit the inefficiency, it may no longer exist. Or am I being unduly pessimistic?
Jeff
mugsgame wrote: There will be times during the match that the decay moves faster than others. I am not going to say when they are as it took me 100's of hours of painstaking work to find them. Sorry.
...
The main problem now is football is so popular as a betting medium, that all the sharp guys are doing the same thing. What used to be easy is now very difficult at times.
The best advice I can give about decay betting in general is have an open position for the minimal amount of time possible. You are always at risk while your position is open.
Hi jeff
I think one place to look is the "Bounce" in prices after a goal..
If you use Soccer Mystic (as a yardstick, it's not always spot on, but good enough). I normally then use some of that money for speculative bets..
I dont know about anyone else; but although I can always a small amount of money out of the football (£20+) fairly easy, I find it MUCH MUCH harder than the horses..I feel like I've earned it after trading a game..I dont think the 5 sec delay helps either (although I fully appreciate why it is needed)
I do take my hat off to those of you that make most of your profits on the footie..
regards
Peter
I think one place to look is the "Bounce" in prices after a goal..
If you use Soccer Mystic (as a yardstick, it's not always spot on, but good enough). I normally then use some of that money for speculative bets..
I dont know about anyone else; but although I can always a small amount of money out of the football (£20+) fairly easy, I find it MUCH MUCH harder than the horses..I feel like I've earned it after trading a game..I dont think the 5 sec delay helps either (although I fully appreciate why it is needed)
I do take my hat off to those of you that make most of your profits on the footie..
regards
Peter
Hi PeterPeterLe wrote:Hi jeff
I think one place to look is the "Bounce" in prices after a goal..
If you use Soccer Mystic (as a yardstick, it's not always spot on, but good enough). I normally then use some of that money for speculative bets..
Common sense would suggest that that's one point at which people are likely to over-react. But let's say that lots of pro traders and gamblers anticipate that there will be an over-reaction. Long-term, their activity in the market may nullify the effect of the people over-reacting to the goal, and remove the edge.
That's interesting, given that many people report the opposite.PeterLe wrote:I dont know about anyone else; but although I can always a small amount of money out of the football (£20+) fairly easy, I find it MUCH MUCH harder than the horses..
Do you think that's because pre-off football markets are generally far less volatile than horse markets, meaning they typically require a different approach?
Jeff
Most of us who have a "model" know exactly what the price should be after a goal. Sometimes this is exploitable, but you need fast fingers.
You need to understand that many of the football markets are linked together. You can use 1 to work out where another should be.
The good news is football markets are populated by even more sheep than the horses. This means they can be predictable , hence able to be exploited.
You need to understand that many of the football markets are linked together. You can use 1 to work out where another should be.
The good news is football markets are populated by even more sheep than the horses. This means they can be predictable , hence able to be exploited.
Hi JeffFerru123 wrote:Hi PeterPeterLe wrote:Hi jeff
I think one place to look is the "Bounce" in prices after a goal..
If you use Soccer Mystic (as a yardstick, it's not always spot on, but good enough). I normally then use some of that money for speculative bets..
Common sense would suggest that that's one point at which people are likely to over-react. But let's say that lots of pro traders and gamblers anticipate that there will be an over-reaction. Long-term, their activity in the market may nullify the effect of the people over-reacting to the goal, and remove the edge.
That's interesting, given that many people report the opposite.PeterLe wrote:I dont know about anyone else; but although I can always a small amount of money out of the football (£20+) fairly easy, I find it MUCH MUCH harder than the horses..
Do you think that's because pre-off football markets are generally far less volatile than horse markets, meaning they typically require a different approach?
Jeff
I dont think that the long term effect would be nullified as people (myself included) tend to be a little cautious and hesitant. The people who can predict accurately and enter the market with confidence will prosper. There has been many a time when I 'know' what the odds will be directly after a goal..but I tend to play on the side of caution and hence miss a lot of opportunities (I'm working on it!)
re the second point; yes most definitely I use a different approach..the low volatility doesn't suit me. Prematch scalping can produce profits which can be used in play (high speculative bets or very low lays- which is another area where people get it wrong i.e. on the edge of the bell curve). You can get bitten by prematch scalping e.g. a change of team sheet (Fergie is a bugger for this, when he fields a less experience squad). If you have large 4 fig sums involved..it can scare the life out of you when it goes the wrong way (so now I only lay united prematch for e.g. limited downside, higher upside)..
MG - Yes I have tried linking different markets..but they all seem to be in sync...the times when I do see an opportunity using this method, disappears in the 5 sec delay..I can get very close..but miss it by millisecs..
There are many people making a lot of money in the football..its not just about the money for me, i just find it fascinating to be honest and just enjoying the journey at the mo!
regards
Peter