Ascot 1:50 - pay your money take your choice

[JollyGreen]

I am slightly dismayed to see Bobs Worth running in this race but there may be a silver lining to the cloud.

To me the prices for this race are crazy with Silviano Conti at 2.2 and Bobs Worth at 3.0 Personally I would expect to see the reverse of this! I am not saying I am correct and the market is wrong, this is just my opinion.

I think Bobs Worth is a likely winner of the RSA chase at Cheltenham and that is why I am concerned to see him running today. I know Grand Crus is a worthy favourite but I think Cheltenham will suit Bobs Worth more than Grand Gus. So if Bobs Worth wins today his price for the RSA is likely to shrink but if he doesn't it is likely to drift and then I am concerned that a hard race today may be too close to Cheltenham.

The one quality I really like about this horse is he's a battler. Even when Grand Crus went away from him in the Feltham he still battled on and despite a couple of errors he was running on towards the finish. So how will he reverse form with Silviano Conti today? Well the Feltham was run at Kempton and that is a tight track that doesn't really suit a horse like Bobs Worth. To be fair it also wasn't ideal for Grand Crus but he's not running today. Ruby Walsh worked hard to try and win that race whereas Barry Geraghty appeared to accept defeat and realised he could not quite get there. Once again this is merely my opinion.

To me, Bobs Worth is a galloping horse that lacks a real turn of foot unlike Silviano Conti who is more nimble and fleet of foot. Bobs Worth looks likely to be more suited to the galloping track that is Ascot and I hope he can find his rhythm and eradicate the mistakes he made at Kempton. If he can do this then I can see him winning this race.

How can we play it to make a profit? Well I think a lay of Silviano Conti is one possibility but Ruby Walsh sits quiet and this can mean the price holds. You could consider a back of Bobs Worth at around 3.0 because if he finds his rhythm he should be there at the finish and his price should drop. You could also look at laying both at a price below 2.0 if it turns into a battle at the end of the race. I mention all three because I know that some people prefer not to lay. I have already Backed Bobs Worth and will look to trade out my position if defeat is looking likely. I am prepared to accept a loss in this instance as at 3.10-3.15 (already backed) I can keep stakes relatively low but expect a decent return.

This should be a good race and barring accidents I cannot see anything else taking the honours.

Good luck in whatever you do.

JG

[icarus121]

Hello JG

Makes a lot of sense,would be good start to the day .Im following you with back TO lay.


Good luck

J

[Zenyatta]

To me the prices for this race are crazy with Silviano Conti at 2.2 and Bobs Worth at 3.0 Personally I would expect to see the reverse of this! I am not saying I am correct and the market is wrong, this is just my opinion.


JG

It looked as if 'Bob's Worth' was going to steam in the pre-race, unfortunately the market was too volatile and the price simply bounced back and forth and ended up about the same. Disapointing.

[JollyGreen]

Well I was not surprised to see Bobs Worth reverse the form with Silvinaco Conti so my version of the prices were correct. Sadly, I could not have foreseen Invictus winning the race; c'est la vie!

Bobs Worth tried to take the 2nd last fence home with him and it appeared that he had a blow after that one. I still like his chances in the RSA Chase.

So, did the market get the price wrong? Well not if you're a layer they didn't and I am sure the bookies were happy to offer 11/10 (SP) about the favourite. It's always a case of finding opportunities - I try and look at a race with opportunities to trade or back/lay rather than looking for problems. I think it is vital to think this way.

Finally, did anyone else see the in running market for this race freeze and stutter? I must admit I traded out at 2.68 and 2.70 because it did actually freeze for me and it went to 2.40 as a low.

[convoysur-2]

Hi All
i got a phone call from some one connected .
3 horses suppose to run well 2 day .im laying off in running,
webel 4.00 lingers.
powerstation 3.35 massive at 32/1
smad place 3.35.
i havent studied any of these ,just using small 10 and 20 bets to lay back in running,the info is normally correct.
happy trading,
Marc

[convoysur-2]

powerstation backed at 32 laid of at 20 ,
off to a good start

[JollyGreen]

I am slightly dismayed to see Bobs Worth running in this race but there may be a silver lining to the cloud.

To me the prices for this race are crazy with Silviano Conti at 2.2 and Bobs Worth at 3.0 Personally I would expect to see the reverse of this! I am not saying I am correct and the market is wrong, this is just my opinion.

I think Bobs Worth is a likely winner of the RSA chase at Cheltenham and that is why I am concerned to see him running today. I know Grand Crus is a worthy favourite but I think Cheltenham will suit Bobs Worth more than Grand Gus. So if Bobs Worth wins today his price for the RSA is likely to shrink but if he doesn't it is likely to drift and then I am concerned that a hard race today may be too close to Cheltenham.

JG

Well my biggest bet at the Festival has just won the RSA Chase as I mentioned on 18th February.....you read it here first! I am not sure if any of you will have remembered this post as it was a few weeks ago but it's always nice when a plan comes together!

[convoysur-2]

well done jolly..
please continue to post your thoughts
Marc