Morning gents..
Any thoughts on the Hunt 14.30 ?
A horse i liked the last time it ran was CHARMING LAD.Liked the way he jumped and raced up with the pace.Yes hit 4th last but ,my feeling was that it was the length of time off the track and the dislike for the soft ground that found him out,it looked more testing than official going that day at Newbury (evidence in that horses that liked soft/heavy ran well.)
Jason MCGUIRE 21% strike for stable, great jockey /judge of pace.C MANNS horses running well(you only have to look at recent results) and the trainer is confident of a good run ?HORSE IN VERY GOOD ORDER....
So with better groung to suit,i feel CHARMING is a massive price ,trading 11 at 10am....
Dont see how this wouldnt be at half those odds and with a prom show in race will trade a lot lower in run.
Feedback as always ,taken on board ,but im struggling to see why this is such a big price.
Good luck
CHARMING day..
Morning Icarus
I've got some time on my hands - waiting for a parcel to be delivered and for the gas man to service the boiler.So I thought that I'd respond to your post.
I've had a quick look at the race.For me the percentage call has got to be to lay the favourite (Ballyoliver).In its last race(3m1f) it started to empty 2f out.Today's race is 1f less at 3m and the ground is better so it's a close call.It may get the trip,it may not.There's also some opposition-not much,granted,but some.Having said that Ballyoliver isn't up to much either so it won't take much beating.It is trading @ 2.7 right now and I'd be tempted to lay at that price 'cos there's value at those odds.If it starts to drift out to over 3.0,then I'd leave the race alone.
As for Charming Lad-seems to weaken between 2m and 2m4f and makes too many mistakes for my liking.I'd want a lot more than 11.0 before I considered backing this one.Even then,I'd be tempted to go for the place.I'm struggling to see why its odds are so low.BTW-the trainer states that the horse is in good order.Ever heard a trainer say that his horse isn't?
Stormhoek looks interesting @ 16.0.I might consider backing that one for a place.
Don't let anything I say put you off.It's just my opinion.
74.5
I've got some time on my hands - waiting for a parcel to be delivered and for the gas man to service the boiler.So I thought that I'd respond to your post.
I've had a quick look at the race.For me the percentage call has got to be to lay the favourite (Ballyoliver).In its last race(3m1f) it started to empty 2f out.Today's race is 1f less at 3m and the ground is better so it's a close call.It may get the trip,it may not.There's also some opposition-not much,granted,but some.Having said that Ballyoliver isn't up to much either so it won't take much beating.It is trading @ 2.7 right now and I'd be tempted to lay at that price 'cos there's value at those odds.If it starts to drift out to over 3.0,then I'd leave the race alone.
As for Charming Lad-seems to weaken between 2m and 2m4f and makes too many mistakes for my liking.I'd want a lot more than 11.0 before I considered backing this one.Even then,I'd be tempted to go for the place.I'm struggling to see why its odds are so low.BTW-the trainer states that the horse is in good order.Ever heard a trainer say that his horse isn't?
Stormhoek looks interesting @ 16.0.I might consider backing that one for a place.
Don't let anything I say put you off.It's just my opinion.
74.5
Thanks for reply 74.5..love the name.
I take on board what you said abot FAV and do agree that STormhoek has place claims.I really think this race will throw up a big priced winner.Not saying Charming is home and hosed ,but i do like C MANNS when they have had long break and come out over fences.For me,i liked the way that it jumped,and did stay 3miles over hurdles .Boring i know but i watch races over and over again and this one fitted the horses i look for ,in anticipation that they will improve.
Hope you have a good days trading,and boiler sorted.
GL
I take on board what you said abot FAV and do agree that STormhoek has place claims.I really think this race will throw up a big priced winner.Not saying Charming is home and hosed ,but i do like C MANNS when they have had long break and come out over fences.For me,i liked the way that it jumped,and did stay 3miles over hurdles .Boring i know but i watch races over and over again and this one fitted the horses i look for ,in anticipation that they will improve.
Hope you have a good days trading,and boiler sorted.
GL