Cheltenham 2012

[Euler]

The fun starts here! Good luck everybody.

[hgodden]

Everytime when this comes it feels like end of year exam time!

Btw how many days do you expect liquidity will be really poor after Cheltenham? I remember the saturday after Cheltenham last year being absolutely dire, and I normally have a few days off after then anyway

[Euler]

The markets tend to wobble for a week before and after Cheltenham. Then we lead into the transition period to the flat turf season, but you have the Aintree national meeting in amongst all that as well. I usually hope to bag a really good week at Cheltenham to pay for some time off after it!

[Stewart]

Everytime when this comes it feels like end of year exam time!

That is a great analagy!

I love Cheltenham and this is the only meeting in the year where I actively lay, back and dutch as well as trade. This won't suit all but it has helped me the past two years.

Good piece by Peter in Racing Ahead which he published on this site (blog) which gives some great strategy options.

Quantativeasing is a good example of one other strategy - back to lay. Has good Cheltenham record and likely to shorten during this afternoon and in the race itself - I just can't see that he will last home.

[Stewart]

Whilst we are waiting for JollyGreen to post his synopsis here is some of my plans (other than trading)

1.30 Lay - Darlan, Steps to Freedom and Cinders and Ashes

2.05 Watch Sprinter Sacre win and watch Paddy Power cry

2.40 Other than Quantativeeasing this could be very close and therefore a lay the field at x price is likely to pay off (you'll have to decide X but read Peter's blog for a tip!)

3.20 I am sue Zenyatta will be mortgaging the house for Hurricane Fly. I will think he will win but I won't risk my house

4.00 Lay Scotirish the price is too small

4.40 Great opportunity to back E/W (Bet365 upto 4 places) as Quevega is taking up 66% of the book and Shop DJ is worth a small interest.

5.15 Good luck but it wouldn't suprise me iF Triolo D'Arlene made a mokery of the competition.

[PeterLe]

Hi

I dont know if this may help anyone (or even if I'm talking rubbish!)...but I was looking at a video on youtube last night..:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q16NvEYZ1-U

This shows the in running prices on "Big Bucks" which seemed to start as an odds on fav. If you look at the price during in running, it never really came in until right near the end...so you could have laid it early in the race anticipating that it would drift (or even lose), limited downside/ Potential high upside?

Not my style but thought it may help someone if similar conditions apply today (Should be plenty of money in running too)
regards
Peter

PS Good Luck everyone

[Euler]

+ve start on both exchanges.

120313 - 1330 - Darlan.png

[Stewart]

Great move although offset by Cinders and Ashes winning

[Euler]

Big volume in the 14:05 £4.6m matched on Sprinter Sacre.

[Euler]

£5.5m matched on the feature and still 15 mins to the off!

[Euler]

£10m matched on the feature race. Managed my best result today on the both exchanges on this race.

[Euler]

Did you see the flashing spoofer on three horses at Cheltenham. He was obviously trying to trick bots into firing or something. He didn't pick his horses very well as he was trying to hold down Uncle Junior which just had to drift, I just kept on laying it.

[andyfuller]

Did you see the flashing spoofer on three horses at Cheltenham.

He has been on all the Cheltenham races so far today and on more than 3 horses in every race, pick the right one and it is quite profitable to go with him.

[chuck536]

ye... looks like you took my green peter lol i couldnt work out what he was doing, most frustrating... i cant see why uncle juniour had to drift more though, it has already doubled in price!

[Euler]

I pulled off a great trade on the XC chase thanks to him.

120303 - 1600 - Uncle Junior - Manipulated.png