Paul Nicholls has not had a great Cheltenham thus far despite the victory of Rock on Ruby in the Champion Hurdle (trained at a satellite yard) but I hope he has a winner withCristal Bonus today.
Many years ago I started compiling speed figures using methods from such people as Andy Beyer. I tried to put my own slant on them to help define an edge. Sadly, it was too time consuming so I had to stop for all but races of interest. I compile them retrospectively using a video of the race and measure times between certain points on the course. I then compare them to other races on the day and past races over course and distance. When I checked the run of Cristal Bonus I had to go back and check again because I convinced myself I must have made a mistake. They went off at a fast pace but then Ruby Walsh slowed it right up before he kicked on again to cover the last section of the race in a brilliant time - running away at the end and crossing the line with plenty in the tank. Walsh only had to urge him along and never resorted to the whip. Despite the course looking unsuitable (needs to go left IMHO) and jumping a bit right he flew home and looked top class. That race suggests to me he is Grade 2 and possibly Grade 1 class so he will not look out of place today.
You would think he is a good thing but years of experience have taught me there is no such thing. I have a slight concern about him finishing up the hill but it is only a slight concern. I think he has improved with time and with a clear round he surely must go close today.
Once again I am on ante post at a decent price so he only has to make the frame to bring me a profit.
Good luck if you play
JG
PS Sorry about the spelling of Cristal - not my doing!
Cheltenham 1:30 - I like this horse!
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enzabella2009
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Unlucky this time....The horse was knackered within 1 minute of the race...Good luck for the rest of the day.
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JollyGreen
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My fears were realised, he clearly didn't handle the course. That was always my concern but you pay your money and take your chance.
I didn't expect him to run that bad though so I do hope the horse is sound?
I didn't expect him to run that bad though so I do hope the horse is sound?
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Mr Undercover
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sir Des Champs is a winning machine, he even had an extra gear in this class. Sorry easy to say after the event but i wouldn't oppose this great horse and hopefully a legend in the making.
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enzabella2009
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I thought it was going to do better. I did not back the horse to win but I took a nice 2.76 for a place. When I saw the horse running that way I managed to recover my loss in play.JollyGreen wrote:My fears were realised, he clearly didn't handle the course. That was always my concern but you pay your money and take your chance.
I didn't expect him to run that bad though so I do hope the horse is sound?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
No problem, I am glad someone won some money. Last night I went through the race with a mate who is a Professional Gambler and he was very keen on Sir Des Champs. When I gave him the data on Cristal Choice he decided he would also have a bet on him. We both said the course was the concern but at 6/1 you could take that chance as the reward was potentially high.Mr Undercover wrote:sir Des Champs is a winning machine, he even had an extra gear in this class. Sorry easy to say after the event but i wouldn't oppose this great horse and hopefully a legend in the making.
You can't win 'em all!
I hope Cristal Bonus is okay and no long term damage was done. When this horse returns to a flatter track keep an eye out for him.
JG
BUENA VISTA has to be a nailed on Back to Lay for me.
Will go from the front for a long way ,the front runners have i think today have a big advantage,ground seems lively and will surely be hard to come from off the pace for some.With this in mind you have to be on Bueana to at least go 50% shorter.
Any thoughts JG would be as always appreciated..
GL
Will go from the front for a long way ,the front runners have i think today have a big advantage,ground seems lively and will surely be hard to come from off the pace for some.With this in mind you have to be on Bueana to at least go 50% shorter.
Any thoughts JG would be as always appreciated..
GL